None of my friends know that I blog ;)

It’s true, I am the ultimate Secret Blogger …

… only two of my closest friends even know that I do blog – about personal finance – but, I won’t even tell them the name of my blog or my ‘pen name’!

[AJC: By now, you probably know that Adrian John Cartwood isn’t my real name – only the Adrian part is. For no reason that I can understand, my daughter started calling me ‘Adrian John Cartwood” when she was 7 … well, when the idea to write this blog sprang to mind in 2008, AJC was the natural choice!]

It’s not comfortable to talk about money: but, I resolved from Day 1 that this blog would need to be authentic and I would have to share the most gruesome details of my financial life.

So, when Bob asked:

From your “I’m a money hacker” post:

What is some financial advice you could give our readers?

Most people don’t really know how much house they can afford, so let me give your readers some very specific advice that will help them through every stage of their own financial journey: never have more than 20% of your Net Worth invested in your own house…

Do I understand from this post that $5M of your $7M net worth is in your own house?

… I can, from a position ‘protected’ by semi-anonymity, remind our readers that my $7 million journey represents a 7 year ‘slice’ of my financial life from when I started $30k in debt in 1998 and ended up with $7 million in the bank in 2004.

My recent ‘bad beat‘ post talks about what happened between 2008 and now 🙁

But, the years in-between (i.e. 2004 to 2008) were very kind to me: dominated by a series of sales of my Australian, New Zealand, and US businesses to a UK public company … it was almost literally raining money for those years.

But, this is a personal finance blog, not a business blog, so I concentrate on the $7m7y because I believe that is repeatable by almost any of my readers.

Even so, my $5 million (cash) house certainly breaks the 20% Rule (my net worth would need to be $25m+) but, it doesn’t matter!

You see, the 20% Rule only applies when you are still chasing your Number!

When you have reached your Number (Making Money 301), THE RULES CHANGE:

Remember when you calculated your Number?

You:

1. Took your required annual living expenses (of course, adjusted for future inflation until your chose ‘retirement’ Date) and multiplied that by 20, and

2. ADDED in the value of your house (plus any additional cash required to pay off the mortgage), initial cars, and any other one-time purchases.

Once you reach your Number, you no longer require 75% of your Net Worth to be in investments: you ‘only’ require the amount that you came up with in Step 1.

So, you can buy as much ‘stuff’ (houses, vacation homes, cars, etc.) as you like with any extra cash that you happen to have!

For me, it doesn’t really matter how much house I bought, as long as I still have >$5m in investments, generating my annual living requirements.

So, Bob, you don’t have to worry about me … yet … I just like to complain 🙂

How to save $1 million by 65? Who cares?!

The current state of American financial thinking is terrible, if this is the best advice that “a senior editor with Money Magazine” can come up with:

Question: I’m 28 and would like to have $1 million by the time I retire at 65. What are some of the investing options I should consider? –Joshua Sin, Fresno, Calif.

Answer: I’m all for savvy investing, and I’ll get to what I think you should do on that front in a minute. But let’s not forget that when it comes to building wealth, investing alone won’t do it. –Walter Updegrave, Senior Editor, Money Magazine.

Walter Updegrave, the author, then goes on to provide a very interesting analysis of how to come up with the $1 mill by 65 – basically saying that it can’t be done:

If you begin putting away $100 a month starting now and continue doing so until 2047, the year you’ll turn 65, you would need an annual return of roughly 13.5% a year to turn that monthly hundred dollars into a million bucks.

What investment options can deliver a 13.5% annual return for almost 40 years? None that I know of.

True. Correct. Perhaps, Insightful.

But, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: who in their right mind cares?

Hasn’t Walt forgotten to ask the key question … why???!!!

Joshua is to be commended for thinking so far ahead, at the age of 28, towards retirement. But, shouldn’t our financial expert’s first step be to examine if the objective is reasonable?

Let’s give it a shot:

Choosing a much more reasonable go-forward inflation rate of 3.5% …

[AJC: The author assumed “a modest 2.5% inflation rate”; that’s just UNDER the current outlook for the next 5 years, pulling out of a major global recession … but, I wouldn’t bet FOR a 40 year recession, if I were planning my own retirement!]

… by the time Joshua turns 65 that $1 million will only be worth $268k.

What does that mean?

It depends on what Joshua does with the money; however, given that his 37 year financial strategy has been simply to ‘save’ (presumably via CD’s, Bonds, Mutual Funds, and the like), I guess we need to assume that he will continue that strategy in retirement.

Therefore, Joshua will have little choice but to abide by the ‘advice’ of the financial planning community, which will be centered around finding a ‘safe withdrawal rate’; a great way to find out what that might be for Joshua, is to plug his $268,000 nest-egg into the T. Rowe Price Retirement Calculator:

Now, what annual income would be reasonable for somebody like Josh to aim for in retirement? $150k a year? $75k a year?

Let’s just say that he aims for $30,000 a year or $2,500 (before tax!) per month in today’s dollars; how well does he do with his $1,000,000?

Not very:

[AJC: PLUS whatever social security there may happen to be in 37 years time … how optimistic are you?!]

Do you think that Josh would have been more surprised to learn that:

a) he would need to average 13% p.a. on his savings to reach $1 mill, or

b) even if he made it all the way to his $1 mill. target, he would only have $871 per month to spend?!

Our readers represent a small but keen-to-learn cross-section of people interested in the subject of personal finance;  let’s tell the financial services, advice, and publishing industries:

What sort of financial advice are you looking for?

Go ahead, leave a comment – especially if you’ve never done so before – and, we’ll challenge them to respond!

Suffer any bad beats lately?

I have to admit that it’s very exciting seeing my two real-estate development projects coming to fruition [AJC: this is the architect’s rendition of just one of my two condo projects … click on the image to enlarge it … go ahead … do it … I’ll love you for it].

I’ll get back to that in a sec’ …

… first, let me tell you about a conversation that I just had with a friend, while we were playing poker today:

FRIEND: Do you find any parallels between business and poker?

AJC: It’s uncanny, but yes I do … and, it’s caused me to totally rethink the way that I think about money

Well, not so much ‘totally rethink’ as remind me about some important Making Money 301 lessons that I seem to have forgotten …

…. but, I keep getting side-tracked; back to the poker:

Case in point: I had quickly tripled my starting stack in a cash game but, just as quickly lost it on a series of bad beats; bad calls (by them, not me); and bad luck.

When you’re running hot, you feel invincible.

When you’re running cold, nothing that you do turns out right.

… and, your poker bankroll quickly slips away.

Well, it’s pretty much the same thing in business and personal finance:

Your investments and/or businesses are ‘on fire’ … the market’s running hot, and – if you’re smart – you cash out at the peak, building up quite a bankroll.

Maybe you even reach your Number.

What should you do then? STOP and smell the roses!

But, the trouble is, greed and the adrenalin kicks in … you believe that you’ve got the Midas Touch. And, you push for the next project.

… and, that’s the one that gets you.

You know, market downturn, bad luck, bad advisers, etc., etc. sob, sob, sob.

Which is, perhaps, why Ill Liquidity asked me:

I don’t get it. You make a tidy sum and retire from the rat race, paying yourself a salary… why go forth and try new money making ventures?

Given my own ‘stop and smell the roses’ advice in that regard, I agree, it’s hard to understand. Sometimes, it’s even hard for me to understand 😉

So, let me take a stab at explaining it; the story so far:

I made my $7 million in 7 years (mainly through reinvesting the profits of my businesses into buy/hold real-estate), and then made a heap more (by selling those businesses just before the 2008 crash), but ….

… then the crash hit, and here’s where my money went:

1. $1.5 million cash into my house in the US (you know I can’t sell that, right?)

2. $5 million cash into my house in Australia

3. 25% of what I sold the businesses for in taxes [AJC: sheesh!]

4. Lost 100% of my $3 million bonus on company stock price crash + taxes paid on the full $3 million [AJC: double sheesh! … but, it’s nice to know that I have a heap of capital gains tax credits to use for the rest of my life]

5. Gave my accountant $1 million to invest in the Aussie stock market for me … he promptly lost 75% in about 6 weeks. My fault for trying to time the market, not his 🙁

Don’t feel too sorry for me: when others try to get to sleep by counting sheep, I count millions!

My problem is this:

All of this bad luck and bad management has left me with assets – not including my $5 million primary residence – that I consider just enough to live my Life’s Purpose.

But, I am an über-pessimist and I really want a large margin for error.

Now, in my rational moments, I realize that my house provides me that i.e. as soon as the kids move out, in approx. 10 to 15 years, we will sell down into a, say, $2 million apartment, which would free up another $3 million (all in today’s dollars, but the price differential should still hold true).

But, even that’s not good enough for me.

So the question that I am wresting with – and, have decided to put off answering until I have building permits for both projects in my hands:

Will I take my own advice and sell both development sites (with permits) for a tidy profit (if all goes well), or will I pull the trigger and dump most of my net worth into these developments to get the Really Big Bucks?

Only time will tell … but, you will be amongst the first to know 🙂

In the meantime, have you suffered any ‘bad beats’ lately?

There IS an entrepreneurial bug!

This post has been featured in the Carnival of Wealth: http://personaldividends.com/news/admin/carnival-of-wealth-august-7-2010-edition

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People often say that they have been “bitten by the entrepreneurial bug” … and, I can say that is perfectly true!

I always wanted to be a ‘millionaire by 30’, but I missed my first million and jumped straight to making my 7th by the time I was 49 😉

But, that did not translate directly into wanting to be an entrepreneur; in fact, I was working for a Fortune 10 company and happily dreaming about becoming its CEO (“one day”) …

… apart from one or two disastrous years, I had a charmed time there, winning ‘bonuses’ left, right, and center – and, traveling around the world on the corporate budget, having the time of my life.

But, that all changed by Work Year 6.

Suddenly – and, I mean suddenly and inexplicably – I was struck with the desire to be in my own business. Almost literally, I was bitten by the entrepreneurial bug!

From that point on, I was miserable in my job … I schemed and planned my way to a myriad business ideas that I couldn’t quite translate into a real business.

In the end, I wimped out and joined IDB.

Yep, the Great Entrepreneur was In Dad’s Business!

Thankfully, that business promptly went broke leaving me with nothing but a $30k debt and a customer list, which I turned into a ‘cloned’ business (i.e. same customers, same concept, very similar name) that I still own, nearly 20 years later. And that business helped to fund the ‘other business’ that took me to the USA.

So, I guess I found the true Entrepreneur Within, after all …

But, what I wanted to share was my thought process, all those years ago when I was still at my ‘desk job’:

I wanted to be in business, and all I knew was IT (information/computer technology), so here were the choices that I came up with:

1. Consulting: as I mentioned in passing, in a recent post, I was something of a ‘world expert’ in my little niche so consulting was a natural first choice for going it alone. But, I realized that I would still be trading hours for dollars.

The formula is (from memory) 1440 possible working hours of the year – hours lost due to marketing, administration, and time off x billable rate = MAXIMUM total revenue. Plug any number in that you like, and it doesn’t add up to $7m7y.

2. Sell something: The only thing I knew how to sell was computers, and the only ones of those that I would likely be able to get a licence to sell would be PC’s. Unfortunately, I could see a price war and shakeout happening which would crush the small guys (this certainly happened).

3. Build something to sell: Again, the only thing that I knew was software: I could develop a piece of software and sell it. Unfortunately, every piece of software has a lifecycle … when the better one comes along, I’m toast.

There was my dilemma …

Fortunately for the world, Mr Price and Mr Coopers didn’t think about the consulting equation before starting PWC (one of the world’s biggest consulting companies before selling off to IBM).

Equally fortunately, Steve Jobs didn’t worry about costs and margins when creating the Apple 1 and 2 – then Lisa and Macintosh – computers and offering them to the world.

Perhaps unfortunately for the world (if you’re a M$-basher), Bill Gates didn’t think about obsolescence before licencing his piece of of software to IBM, then others.

Bottom line: if you’re passionate about an idea, give it a go … you’ll find a way to make money if the idea is good enough. If not, what you learn will be worth the ‘cost’ in lost time/money.

To mini-retire or not to mini-retire?

DrDollaz takes issue with whole ‘eat hamburger now so that you can eat steak later’ philosophy:

Problem with that philosophy is that years later – after being used to eating nothing but hamburger – most people have a hard time splurging on steak!

The whole fallacy of ‘saving so that you can enjoy retirement’ is BS – your life should be filled with mini-retirements.

But, Think Simple Now tried a mini-retirement and found that it wasn’t all it was cracked up to be:

When I first learned of the mini-retirement concept, I was immediately attracted to the idea. To me it represented freedom. I had all these romantic notions associated with it, and when I found a way to take three months off from work, I jumped at the first chance and ran with it.

While traveling is an eye-opening experience and a chance to see how others live in vastly different cultures. It is exhausting, on many levels. It quickly became clear to me that the romantic concept of traveling is flawed.

It turns out that TSN is more disillusioned with travel rather than mini-retirements, per se.

Fortunately, I agree with DrDollaz …

The $7million7years Way  is all about leading you to some future date where you have amassed the required amount of money to start living (your Life’s Purpose).

But, of course, if that’s all you take away then you’ve missed half the story:

Because I also say that money has only one purpose: to spend.

And, I have written many posts telling you to save now, but also to spend now!

Life is a journey …

… and, that includes the bits both before and after your reach your Number 😉

The Real Value of Money?

Aside from the interesting New Zealand accent (only a hop, step and a jump away from my own Aussie accent) – and, the fact that the Porsche Cayenne costs NZ$260k (or a little over USD$189,000) making them ridiculously expensive in the Land Of The Long White Cloud – I think this video is misnamed.

So you forgo the car and invest the money (as you probably should, while you are trying to work towards your Number) and get back $1.8 million after 20 years … what do you do then?

Well, isn’t the Real Value of Money based for spending? Am I missing something here?!

What you spend it on is up to you: you could give it all away or you could go out and buy yourself a Porsche Cayenne.

And, if you’re going to buy a Porsche Cayenne then, why not buy it now (if you have reached your Number and/or can afford it within the 5% Spending Rule)? 😉

Still, the message is clear: don’t go out and waste your money on ‘stuff’ if you are still trying to work towards your Number!

The Murphy’s Law Fund

Scott who – in my post proposing a Zero Dollar Emergency Fund – says:

I’ve given this topic a lot of thought and how do you feel about seeing a typical ‘emergency fund’ as more of a temporary ‘war chest’? In that, you are building up this cash savings reserve as fast as you can, while you scout for that next great investment opportunity (ie; stock in that excellent undervalued company that you researched, or that terrific foreclosure that you’ve scouted out in a great area that you want to purchase and turn into a rental property, or an excellent business idea or perhaps funding the expansion of your current business).

I figure that way, this money has a specific target(high returns that are more likely to get you to your number by your date) BUT, in the meantime, if Murphy pays you a visit while you’re building up this ‘war chest’, you have some liquidity(ie; emergency funding) to tackle that emergency. But, as soon as you have enough built up to take that next investment opportunity, take it with this money!

The short answer is that Scott has some cash lying around, and hasn’t yet figured out what to do with it. An ’emergency’ pops up, so the logical thing to do is to dip into that cash and use it to solve the problem.

I don’t have any issue with that: but it isn’t an Emergency Fund. It also isn’t a ‘war chest’. It’s just some spare cash lying around …

Of course, I’m overstating things for dramatic effect, here 😉

So, let’s take a look at the following graph to see what may be happening [AJC: I’ve adapted this graph from something to do with the ‘mating cycle of dogs’ that I found on Google image search, but I think it suits our non-canine purposes just fine!]:

Let’s pretend for a minute that this graph represents the amount of ‘spare cash’ that Scott has lying around (Y-Axis) at any point in time (X-Axis):

Scott starts building up his savings, has a little glitch as he realizes that he forgot to pay his car insurance premium by installments so he has to pay it all at once, then steadily builds up again until it reaches Scott’s ‘peak’  – his ideal Emergency Fund of $10,000.

Then Scott hits paydirt: an idea for a new online business, and he starts to spend that $10k on programming, domain name registration, hosting, Google Adwords and all the other stuff needed to get the ‘side business’ off and running. A couple of months and $9k later, Scott’s business is paying it’s own way [AJC: well done, Scott!].

Great, now Scott can start building that Emergency Fund again …

Do you see the problem?

The only time the Emergency Fund is adequate is between the time that Scott has managed to save up the full $10,000 and the time he starts spending the money on something else (in this case, his new business idea; it could easily have been a vacation, new car, girlfriend, or …?).

[Sigh] If only Life’s little ’emergencies’ knew how to fit into Scott’s calendar [double sigh]

I guess it’s up to me to propose a better solution …

Next time 😉

The case FOR credit cards …

I think, by now, we all agree:

Credit Cards = BAD

I mean, that’s pretty much Personal Finance Kindergarten, right?

Why pay 19%+ interest for something that just goes down in value (like that 3D TV)?

But, why do I pay all my bills – both work and personal – by credit card.

I’m sure the answer’s pretty obvious to all and sundry: it’s for the points, man!

Yes, even millionaires like to get free stuff …

…. and, Sugardaddy outlines on NetworthIQ exactly how he does it:

1) Assuming that you pay your bills on time, most of the time, put all routine expenses on your credit card…utilities, groceries, etc.

2) Set up an automatic bill payment plan from your checking account for the card online.

Result:

1) you get a 30-day free loan.
2) you get free credit card points that are worth real money.
3) you increase your credit score.
4) you consolidate all your bills in one payment
5) You will never have a late fee and the APR will never concern you.
6) You will always watch your checking account balance like a hawk as failure to have enough in the account IS NOT AN OPTION.

I have done this for 10 years and it works like a charm…I get all my video games for “free” from Best Buy, and beat the banks at their own game.

Life does not get any better than that.

But, there’s always a catch in Life, Sugardaddy 😉

The one, here, is that the credit card companies HOPE that you forget to pay your bill on time, then you get to pay interest from the date of purchase.

[AJC: actually, they’ve already made their $$$$ from the Merchant Fee – believe me, I understand this side of the business VERY well – but, that 19% they get from you is just sweeeetttttt]

So, I add a few more steps to this otherwise inspired plan:

7 ) See 6)
8 ) See 6)
9 ) See 6)
10) See 6)

Point made?

Great, because I, too, have been doing this for years.

My assistant puts all ‘work’ expenses through my personal credit card (needless to say I have a LARGE credit limit), and my wife does the same with our home expenses.

Both ensure payment in full each and EVERY month.

Having done that, later this year I’m traveling ’round the world first class [AJC: I’m told that First Class on the new A380 entitles me to my own/private room on the ‘plane!] … fully ‘paid’ by points.

Sweet 🙂

Speaking of Billionaires …

Where I fear to tread, Bargaineering boldly ventures; proudly proclaiming The Billionaire Secret: Avoid Ordinary Income, Acquire Capital Gains.

I won’t presume to tell you anything about being a bil-yun-air until I are one, but that doesn’t stop others from trying; Bargaineering says:

The key to building wealth is to build or buy an asset that can appreciate in value and/or generates passive income. The key to building or buying an asset that can do that is to convert your labor into capital (money). This is why saving for retirement, saving for a home, and saving in general is such an important piece of your personal finance plan. This is the billionaire secret because this idea is well understood by people who are wealthy. They see that capital gains taxes are much lower than ordinary income, that’s why Warren Buffet pays lower tax rates than his secretary. Capital gains are taxed at 15% for 2010 while the 15% tax bracket is the second lowest federal tax bracket (for those earning up to $34,000). It’s a no brainer, you want to transition, as quickly as possible, from ordinary income to long term capital gains and dividend income.

Have you ever seen those magic shows where the magician pulls some random guy out of the audience and gets him to try and copy what the magician is doing?

Presto!

The magician accomplishes some amazing feat and the other guy (gal?) ends up looking like a shmuck …

Well, that’s kind’a like what’s happening here – in fact, with most PF authors who write ‘get rich’ stuff. They are working by what they THINK they see other (real millionaires and billionaires) doing.

And, they see Warren Buffett playing with capital and saving on taxes and … presto!

“Convert your labor into capital (money)” and “capital gains taxes are much lower than ordinary income”, so “it’s a no brainer, you want to transition, as quickly as possible, from ordinary income to long term capital gains and dividend income”.

So, it’s a no brainer that you do all this (because the Billionaires DO do all of this, I think) and you’ll be standing there in 5 to 10 years as a poor shmuck.

Why?

You’ve missed the point entirely: how the trick is done, because it’s done behind the scenes … Bargaineering can’t really see it and neither can you.

Not because these billionaires are hiding anything (well, they probably are hiding at least a little) – unlike the magician who can’t afford to tell, not even once – but, because they have much more important things to do than write books and blogs.

So, from a multimillionaire’s perspective rather than a billionaire’s, let me share what I think is going on:

1. While you are trading hours for $$$ you lose

This is why I chose NOT to become a highly paid consultant, way back when I was a world expert (speaking tours and all) in my little niche. Don’t trade a limited commodity (time) for an unlimited one (money); you only have 40 to 60 hours a week to trade, no matter how much per hour you think you can pull, yet money is just bits of paper that Uncle Sam prints by the trillions.

Fortunately this one is simple: start a business; start investing … make your little bit of time and money work as hard as possible, until the money – on its own – starts to make more money for you. I think you can extrapolate?

2. Capital is better than income

But, it’s not for the tax-advantages … I don’t do anything BECAUSE of the tax advantages (for one, Uncle Sam loves to change those rules at the drop of a policy change); I simply take ’em when they come.

But capital is a tool for creating income; it’s a little like that time/money thing. The best you can do is create your perpetual money machine: use your income to buy a little capital (real-estate is nice) which generates more income (from rents, after mortgage and other costs) which you pump back into buying more ‘capital’; repeat until rich!

Finally, Bargaineering says:

While the 2% you can get at a high interest savings account isn’t going to set you for retirement, that income represents your money working for you. The problem with this approach, at least for the long term, is that interest income is considered ordinary income. It’s taxed at the higher rate, which makes it a bad idea.

Do I really need to explain why the problem here is the 2%, not the taxation rate?

None of this get rich(er) quick(er) stuff works, if you don’t get your annual compound growth rate to infinity and beyond … well, at least to 15%+++ 😉