What is the quickest way to pay off debt?

snowballThe common answer is to arrange the debt that you owe either by size (popularised by Dave Ramsey as the Debt Snowball) or by interest rate (see Debt Avalanche Definition | Investopedia).

But, both of these methods are flawed because they incorrectly assume all debt is bad (see Good Debt Vs. Bad Debt), but this is only true before you take on debt.

But, once you have taken on debt, debt is either cheap or expensive and requires a whole new way of thinking …

There’s an old adage that says a penny saved is a penny earned.

Well, this is also true for debt, where the currency is not pennies, but interest rates:

A percent saved in interest is exactly the same as a penny earned in interest.

This means that you should sort all of your debts and all of the possible ways that you could earn interest on your money in order of interest saved or earned.

It would work something like this example:

I still owe $1,487 on my credit card at 19% interest

I still owe $5,352 on my auto loan at 11% interest

I can invest my money in a low cost stock Index Fund and earn 8% return

I still owe $142,694 on my home loan at 5% interest

I still owe $11,223 on my student loan at 2% interest

I can invest my money in a CD and earn 1% interest

Notice how this list is sorted by amount of interest paid or interest (return) earned?

So, if you would have cash left over each month after making the minimum payment on each of the loans, instead of simply keeping it in the bank (earning 0% to 1%) as most people would do, this table makes it very easy to …

Pay off your expensive debts quickly and safely earn a much higher return on your investments:

Step 1: Instead of making the minimum payment on your credit card, make the minimum payments on your auto loan, your home loan, and your student loan, then

Step 2: Pay as much as you can then spare that month on your credit card. Repeat monthly until paid off.

Step 3: Once the credit card is paid off, move to the next on the list (i.e. your auto loan). Notice how you should have much more available to pay monthly, as you no longer have to make any payments on your credit card – which was your most expensive debt, at 19% interest!

Step 4: Once the credit card and auto loans are paid off, stop paying down debt (this is where the Debt Snowball and Debt Avalanche & all other ‘pay off all debt’ strategies fail), instead:

Step 5: Continue to make the minimum payments on your low interest home loan and student loan, and pay as much as you can spare each month (which should be quite a lot, now, as your most expensive loans are now paid off!) into an investment such as a low-cost stock Index Fund. This is Dollar cost averaging into the whole US stock market, and is Warren Buffett’s preferred strategy for non-experts to invest (source: Warren Buffett to Heirs: Just Use Index Funds).

Step 6: Revisit this list every 6 to 12 months (simply resorting your debts owed and invest opportunities into strict interest-rate (paid or earned) order, and follow the steps, starting at the top and working your way to the bottom.

Note: If any of your loans has a term (i.e. has to be paid off by a certain date) and your minimum payments are not sufficient to pay them off in time, simply withdraw some of your Index Fund balance a few days before the loan falls due and pay it off. Then, resort your list and start again.

You will thank me when it comes time to retire …

{Also published on Quora: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-quickest-way-to-pay-off-debt}

What are the most important lessons to learn about personal finance?

Screenshot 2014-05-21 13.38.29Everybody has an opinion about the most important financial lessons that you can learn about personal finance. Just look at how many personal finance blogs there are [Hint: over 7,000 are listed] … and, here I am adding one more blog to that long list.

What do these blogs suggest? What do they say are the most important lessons that their authors have learned along the way?

Is it to avoid debt? Probably [here are 50 blogs just focussed on debt reduction].

Perhaps, you need an emergency fund? Of course [Googling “emergency fund” brings up 1,050,000 results].

How about spending less than you earn? Naturally [Googling “spend less than you earn” brings up 844,000 results]!

Sure, each of these can be important …

… equally, each of these can actually hurt you!

It all depends on what your ultimate goal is. For me, it’s to live my Life’s Purpose, but let’s just wind that back a little to a more generic goal – one that doesn’t require a degree in philosophy to understand:

The most important financial goals are:

1. Satisfaction – having sufficient money on hand to satisfy your most important needs, and

2. Security – having sufficient surety that your most important financial needs will always be met.

Think about these carefully, as they appear to be similar … but, they are not the same:

One (satisfaction) points to understanding your true needs (physical, environmental, emotional, etc.) and ensuring that you have sufficient income to provide for them, whilst the other (security) points to forward planning of the cash-flow required now, whilst you are working, and in the future, when you are not.

And, financial satisfaction & security is only really achieved when you have:

1. Sufficient money invested to safely fund your required lifestyle (not to be confused with your current lifestyle) – by a date of your choosing and for the rest of your life – without needing to work, and

2. Sufficient cash buffer to ensure that you can maintain that lifestyle for a reasonable period should something go wrong (market corrections; real-estate vacancies; etc).

EVERYTHING else that you do (financially-speaking) has to take you closer to achieving the above.

To illustrate the importance of this, let me give you three examples:

1. If you are young (say 25), happy to work in your current profession for the next 40 years, and living a frugal lifestyle is sufficient to satisfy your needs for the rest of your life, then financial security can be easily achieved for you simply by saving the equivalent of half your current after-tax salary (indexed for inflation) until you retire.

Of course, it would help if you avoid piling up debt, and put in place the necessary insurance (incl. an emergency fund), in case of any glitches along the way; in any event, most such issues will likely be nothing that another 4 or 5 years of hard work can’t resolve.

2. If you are in your 30’s or 40’s, entrepreneurial, and have desires in life that only early retirement can satisfy (e.g. you want to be a full-time artist; writer; traveller; and, so on), then you simply won’t be able to save enough to maintain the security of your lifestyle when you stop work in 5, 10, or even 20 years (even if you somehow manage to save 25% – 50% of your salary, accumulate no debt, and build up a huge emergency fund).

So, you will need to take my path: focussing on growing income first, then saving second (e.g. simple math shows that investing 25% of $250k a year will get you much further than saving 50% of $50k a year). Starting a business and actively investing as much of the proceeds as possible into real-estate, stocks, and bonds (rather than in your own lifestyle) has a better chance of taking you to an early, self-sustainable retirement [a.k.a. Life After Work] than any amount of debt reduction, emergency fund building, and so on.

3. If you have retired early (or late; it doesn’t matter), you are pretty much stuck with whatever level of lifestyle you have been able to satisfy from the retirement nest egg that you have built up … now, the main financial goal you need to focus on is security.

My recommendation is to now focus purely on capital protection and income:

Purchase real-estate outright and live from 75% of the net proceeds, and keep 2 years cash as an emergency fund, or purchase inflation-protected federal treasuries. Forget stocks; you will put too much strain on your heart and psyche as you watch your net worth double and halve every 7 to 10 years. That’s pretty much it.

So, when people tell you their ‘Top 10 Strategies for Financial Health’, ignore them …

… any such set of strategies is meaningless unless you can first put them into context:

How do they help you achieve your desired level of financial satisfaction and security?

I am 21 and clueless …

Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.37.01This is quite typical of the types of questions that I receive from time to time:

I’m 21, and am clueless about finance. I want to start up a business at my mid 20s. Should I opt for endowment plans or unit trust?

The first thing you’ll notice is that there are no further details, as though there’s a ‘pat’ answer for every clueless 21 year old.

Still, let me suggest the following if you are 21 years old and also want to start a business ‘one day’:

1. If you consider yourself clueless about personal finance, start by reading everything you can.

Since you are young, start with I Will Teach You to Be Rich – I was weaned on a diet of Rich Dad Poor Dad, The Richest Man in Babylon, and so on …

Warning: The important thing to note is that these books are only to whet your appetite, they will  NOT make you rich … once you reach a certain point, much of the advice will have to be discarded.

2. If you want to start a business in your mid-20’s the best way to prepare is by starting one now:

It doesn’t matter if the business is successful or not, the idea is to learn by doing.

While you are studying, you can easily start an online business: become an eBay seller; start a drop-shipping business; write a blog about your passion (or, perhaps about your financial journey) and package up some of the posts into a series of information products that you can sell.

3. If you are worried about company structures, don’t!

Just get started … and with your first $1,000 in savings (from 1.) and/or earnings (from 2.) see an accountant and do what they suggest … this isn’t the place for such technical advice.

If you do these simple things, you will be financially better off than 99% of your peers within years, if not months, and should remain so for the rest of your life.

Why?

Because they will remain clueless, whilst you will not 😉

Speculating on stocks; how much is OK?

Twitter IPOAs I mentioned in my last post, my 19 y.o. son’s online business is doing quite well …

… well enough for him to start thinking about investing in stocks. Or, real-estate.

But, right now, he’s thinking mainly about stocks.

Unfortunately, his thoughts are more towards Tesla and Twitter than GE and Unilever.

At least, he knows they (TSLA and TWTR) are speculative 😉

So, this is how the conversation went:

AJC Jr: I want to invest in Twitter. How much should I invest? I have quite a bit set aside …

Me: How much you have to invest is the least important part of your decision-making process.

AJC Jr: Oh! What’s the most important part, then?

Me: Well, son, you’re considering speculating in a technology stock that could go in any direction. How much to invest actually depends mostly on how much you’re prepared to lose?

AJC Jr: Hmmm. In that case, I think I’m prepared to lose $10k.

Me: OK. Now, how far do you think the stock is likely to fall.

AJC Jr: I think it’s going to go up!

Me: Of course you do 😉 BUT, if it does fall, how far do you think it will go … worst case?

AJC Jr: If I wait for a while – for all the IPO hype to die down – and buy Twitter at more reasonable $30 a share, then I think the most it will go down is $10.

Me: In that case, if you are prepared to lose $10k and you only think the stock will drop by 1/3 worst case, then you could invest up to $30,000.

AJC Jr: But, I could afford to invest a lot more in stocks!

Me: Sure! Just not in risky stocks … and, not more than $30k in Twitter. Now, take look at this stock chart for a nice, safe, boring trash dumping company I’m considering investing in …

When investing, decide if you’re in it for the long-term, or if you are simply blindly following some boom/bust tech trend; if the latter, look at how much you’re prepared to lose and make your decision on how much to invest based on that.

 

How to catch a monkey …

Screen Shot 2013-11-06 at 8.59.32 AMI’m always amazed by people who think that they can make ‘quick bucks’ (or, its sister currency: ‘easy bucks’) just by fiddling with paper …

… if trading stocks, options, FOREX, or commodities is something that you really want to do, I should at least teach you all that you really need to know before you begin.

And, it all has to do with catching monkeys …

But, rather than hearing it from me, far better to learn from the masters at Goldman Sachs, whom – or, so I am told by a very unreliable source – share this story with every new hire on their very first day of training:

Once upon a time in a village, a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.

The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort.

He further announced that he would now buy at $20 each. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to $25 for each monkey captured and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50!

However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, “Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 apiece and when the man returns from the city, you can sell each monkey back to to him for $50 each. He’ll be none the wiser and we’ll all have made some easy money!”

The villagers squeezed together all their savings and bought all the monkeys.

Then they never saw the man nor his assistant again … of course, now there were monkeys everywhere!?!

That’s how trading really works; welcome to ‘Goldman Sachs’!

[Source: http://www.quora.com/Jokes/Which-are-some-of-the-most-profound-jokes-ever/answers/1170178]

So, before you begin trading, consider this:

EVERY trade is two-sided.

This means that if you WIN some other shmuck has to LOSE. Sounds a bit like a poker game, doesn’t it?

If you agree, it would be wise to remember a very important saying in the world of professional poker:

If you can’t see who the shmuck is at the table … it’s you!

So it goes with trading: for every trade there is a counter-trade, and it’s probably being made by somebody with more experience than you …

… since so much institutional money passes through the various markets each day your ‘adversary’ is most likely a professional investor.

Now, let me ask you:

Would you play heads up poker with a professional poker player for anything other than the learning experience or fun?

Or, do you  really think you can turn a long-term profit catching monkeys? 😉

Investment logic gone askew …

Whilst I was traveling, I hope that you had a little time to reflect on some of the advice that I’ve been dishing out over the last few years?

It’s important that you don’t just follow my (or anybody’s) advice blindly, else you may end up making some fatal logic errors like this poor bloke:

Suppose I have 100K in an index fund that has a ten year return of 7.4%, a five year return of 8.2%, a 3 year return of 17.5%, and a 1 year return of 24.76%.  That is a pretty dependable return over the last few years, but it will probably not keep up with the 24.76% return, but will probably maintain at least a 7% return over the next year.  So I assume that 7% return.

I want to buy a car for 100K.  I can take money out of the index fund to buy the car, and give up $7000 over the next year.  I can borrow money at 2% and pay $2000 in interest over the next year.  If I choose to pay cash, I lose $7K, but if I borrow and leave my own $100K in the mutual fund, I pay $2K and earn $7K, for a net gain of $5K.

So my logic says that paying cash for anything when the investment return is higher than the interest rate is a mistake.  Suze Orman won’t give me advice on this, so if my logic is off, I hope someone will show me better logic.

Have you spotted the flaws?

Well …

The principle of taking a 2% loan on the car so that he can invest at 7% elsewhere is sound, BUT his assumptions are wrong:

1. A low-interest car loan is generally subsidized by price.

Check the true rate, if it’s more than 2% then he is probably better off negotiating the cash price lower THEN doing his cash v finance analysis.

Screen Shot 2013-09-10 at 11.08.38 PM

[Source: http://www.bankrate.com/]

2. Unless he’s planning on a 7+ year auto loan, the correct comparison is the finance rate on the loan against a CD for the same term.

This is because the stock market is way too volatile and he needs an investing horizon of at least 7 – 10 years before returns even approach ‘normal’.

Screen Shot 2013-09-10 at 11.00.27 PM

In fact, even though this chart doesn’t show that time period, he needs at least 30 years (based on nearly 100 years of data) to ‘guarantee’ at least an 8% return (the worst thirty-year period delivered an average annual rate of 8.5% between 1929 and 1958).

3. Your past returns are NO predictor of future performance:

His ~25% of last year could just as easily be a LOSS of 48% next year. Look what happened in 2008:

crash_of_2008

But, he redeems himself, somewhat:

The same logic applies to my mortgage: I pay 2.62% on my house.  I could pay it off, but taking the money out of an international fund with a one year return of 22.85% would result in a net loss of $100k over the next year (moving $500K from an investment at 22.85% to pay off a $500K balance at 2.62%).

4. On the other hand, his mortgage comparison is ideal:

If you can lock in a 3o year mortgage, fixed at today’s ridiculously low rates, and lock that money into a low-cost index fund for the same period then, yes, you are almost assured of a 3%+ net return, compounded for 30 years (which means that he should almost return 1.5 x his initial investment PLUS whatever profit he makes on your property).

That’s why real-estate is such a great long-term investment, and why the stock market is a terrible short-term gamble.

What advice would you give?

 

Help a reader: the results are in!

Readrer Poll

Thanks to all of you who voted, especially those who backed up their vote with an opinion (via the comments section of my post)!

Jason asked whether he should continue renting the commercial condo that his business is in for $1,800 per month OR buy it for $160,000? When he asked his friends earlier he didn’t get much help:

I have asked a lot of people and get about half giving me one suggestion while half give me the opposite!

Unfortunately, as is often the case with these difficult decisions, our vote is split 3:2 …  but, in favor of buying the building.

For example, Zach is emphatically FOR buying the building:

More information would be helpful, but that seems like a good price for $1,800/mo rent. Business or no business, I would take that deal every time.

Whilst, Victor is equally AGAINST:

Don’t invest in something you don’t know much about, you know your business, invest in that, pass on what you don’t know.

So, Jason is right back where he started 🙁

My general advice in these situations, without having nearly enough enough info to give specific/personal advice, is to …

do both. Every single time.

You see, it comes from the advice that my Grandpa once gave me: I remember him recounting an argument that he had with Grandma when they were just starting out. Grandma wanted to buy a modest home, instead of renting what amounted to little more than dumps, being all they could afford as poor immigrants, but my grandfather had other ideas; he said:

From a business, you will always be able to buy a house. But, from a house you will never buy a business.

Sound advice (it certainly guided me), but how does it help in this situation?

Well, it applies in reverse: when you have a business that’s generating cashflow, you have to start thinking about external investments, and buying your own premises is often the best place to start. Of course, you still have to keep the reinvestment needs of the business in mind … after all, that’s what’s generating the cash!

But, what happens when it seems you don’t have enough capital to do both?

That was the situation that I found myself in when we outgrew our last rental office:

I found a building that we could rehab for our purposes, but that I felt had good future capital appreciation value: in other words, a building that I thought – first and foremost – would be a good investment.

It was way over budget (e.g. when comparing old rent v new mortgage), but it seemed too good an investment opportunity to simply pass up.

I had no idea how to value it properly, and it was going for auction, but I found out that the only other serious bidder was a property developer. I knew that he would only pay land value, not much more.

This was a trick that I had employed successfully once before: find a property that developers are interested in, but that you want to own/occupy and pay $1 more than they are willing to bid.

And, that’s roughly what happened (cost me $1k over his losing bid of $1.36m) …

Then the worry started: how was I going to pay for this monolith? How was I going to find the deposit?

I dealt with the second issue (finding the deposit) by employing a tried-and-tested short-term funding method: shorten the time to receive payments from clients and lengthen the time to pay suppliers.

This (temporarily) reduces the amount of working capital tied up in the business at the (hopefully, manageable & short-term) expense of happy customers and suppliers.

I dealt with the first problem (plus, the new problem of quickly replenishing the working capital situation) by not eating for 6 months 😉

This means, maximizing the profits of the business to help cover mortgage costs and rehab costs, whilst quickly rebuilding the working capital of the business.

Tough – very tough for a while – but, manageable.

And, that’s how I made my first real $1 million: I sold the building just a few years later for nearly $2.5m. It remains one of the best real-estate investments that I have ever made.

The only catch, if Jason were to employ this strategy, is that his building doesn’t look like it has much upside potential – with “32 units, of whitch 24 are currently vacant shells” in the complex.

Perhaps, Jason is better off using the month-by-month lease time, when his lease expires, to give him time to find something with a little more upside potential?

 

 

A quick real-estate buck!

RE - 1Beware those who love stocks. Beware those who love bonds. Beware those who love gold, oil, futures, and so on.

Most of all, beware those who love real-estate!

OK, so I invest in real-estate …

… but, I’m not in love with it.

Take a look at the above infographic [click to enlarge]; a picture (with numbers) tells a thousand words:

This person claims that they (or a client) bought a single-family home for only $35,000 and now clear (fees, insurance, and property taxes) $680 a month in rent.

Since they put in $7k in closing costs and rehab when they bought it, they are really returning $8k a year, which is 19% a year.

The key to real-estate is that you can add value.

To see what I mean, check out the highlighted items in the enlargement, below:

RE - 2

By spending just $5k in rehab, the purchaser immediately increased the value of the property by $18k, from $42k to $60k. Presumably, this similarly increased the rents.

The problem with this type of example is that it is unrealistic: this example assumes that you paid cash for the property.

Instead, I’ve made a ‘more normal’ example from this one, to show you how cash-on-cash returns really work, and why RE really is such a good investment:

RE - 3

[you can download the full spreadsheet here:  https://www.dropbox.com/s/ujuqaptgrr8hssv/Simple%20RE%20Analyzer.xls]

This analysis confirms that it is possible to get a 19% Cash-on-Cash Return, but:

1. You need to have a 15 year outlook; the first year produces a loss,

2. The assumed rent is VERY high.

The reality is that most residential real-estate tends to produce negative returns in the early years, and capital gains over the longer term. Whereas commercial real-estate tends to produce higher earlier returns but lower capital growth.

Still, by purchasing well, adding value (e.g. through a clever & economic rehab) it is possible to produce fairly reliable (when compared to the up’s and down’s of the stock market) cash-on-cash returns that blow away most other consumer-grade investments.

I’m going to make a fortune, effective immediately!

Screen Shot 2013-03-22 at 9.21.59 PMAs catchy as the title is of today’s post, it has very little (but not, nothing) to do with the image on the left …

… which image simply serves to illustrate my preferred – or, should I say ‘accepted’ – approach to investing.

But, wait, you say!

Surely, the quadrant to the bottom-right (where the combination of profit and risk is optimized) is the most efficient?

.

So, why would I want my arrow to hit the target in ‘no mans land’?!

Well, that’s the exact question that I threw to my readers in my last post

There were a lot of amazing comments (and, you should go back and read them all), but Dustin wins a signed copy of my book for his comment, which summarizes my views nicely:

there are significant gains to be made with a moderate increase to your risk … however the long term of the investment should moderate that for the endgame result. Technically it is a less “efficient” investment, but only statisticians care about that, not real world investors.

And, JD earns an ‘honorable mention’ (and, also wins a signed copy of my book) for his comment, which adds a crucial caveat to my views:

I worry less about potential losses for incremental investments. I may be biased since I am young enough to earn it back (I’m in my late 20s)

Whilst I would argue (as would Warren Graham who provided the source chart and much valuable commentary to my original post), that learning about the efficient frontier is valuable to investors, not just statisticians, Dustin has hit the nail on the head by focussing on the “endgame result” …

… for me, your overall investment objective drives everything.

The aim, in my opinion, isn’t to find the optimal investment where ‘optimal’ is defined as sitting on some curve, it’s to find the investment from the limited range typically available to you in the real world that delivers the result that you need.

If you’ve been following this blog for a while, you’ll realize that – in order to pin down that ‘result that you need’ – I advocate a Top Down Approach To Investing:

This means, knowing how much money you need; when you need it; and, using those answers to derive your required annual compound growth rate.

It’s this growth rate, as indicated by the horizontal line on the chart below (the positioning of this line will be different for everybody) that should dictate what investment choices you go after:

Screen Shot 2013-03-22 at 9.41.46 PM

Each of these investment choices (and, in my experience, there will be very few to choose from, since you need access, education, and aptitude in each type of investment in order to proceed) will bring with them their own risk profile …

… and, you will be amazingly lucky, if one of those choices (e.g. as represented by the black squares on the chart above) happen to fall on the intersection of the horizontal line and the ‘efficient frontier’ curve.

If not, and if you want to achieve your Number by your chosen Date [AJC: you do, don’t you?], you will go ahead and make that investment, anyway, even if it doesn’t fit neatly in the quadrant on the bottom-right of the image at the top of this post.

Because, as JD says, even if your investment fails, hopefully, you will still be “young enough to earn it back”.

We get one opportunity to live our Life’s Purpose; we get many opportunities to make investments to help us get there, but only if we have the mettle to choose the ones that have the potential to meet your minimum required annual compound growth rate.

To me, the investment choices that can help us reach our Number are the most effective of investments …

… they just may not be the most efficient 😉

.

.

 

Surfing the efficient frontier …

Screen Shot 2013-03-22 at 9.21.31 PMOne of my Finnish blogging friends shared this interesting graphic on one of their most recent posts …

The implication is clear:

The best investments …

… in fact, the ideal investment is one that maximizes profit at the lowest possible risk.

Whilst that is ideal, the real world – at least in my opinion – doesn’t work that way.

Why?

– You may not understand the investments that maximize profit at the lowest possible risk

– You may not have access to the investments that maximize profit at the lowest possible risk

In fact, the operative word here is ‘you’ …

… unless you are professional investor, who has access to – and understands fully – all of the investment choices available, you will not be able to surf the ‘efficient frontier’:

Screen Shot 2013-03-22 at 9.41.46 PM

Because of access and education you may only be able to select from a few investments that, if you are lucky and choose well, approximate the efficient frontier, as represented by the four dots in the chart, below:

Screen Shot 2013-03-22 at 9.43.26 PM

In this case, you have lucked out!

Two of your investments have hit the efficient curve smack on, and one is optimal (i.e. best combination of risk/reward), whilst the other will suit the most risk-averse amongst you, as it is efficient, yet carries the least risk (of course, it also produces the lowest return of all the ‘efficient’ choices available to you).

Screen Shot 2013-03-22 at 9.21.59 PMMaths aside, here (diagram to the left) is where I like to position my investments …

… and, where I think most (but not all) of you should like to position yours, as well.

It’s not optimal (higher reward, more risk); probably not even efficient; but, ideal … at least, for my (our?) purposes!

Any idea why?

Why do you think I actually like to assume more risk?

I’ll do a follow up post; in the meantime, I’d like to hear what you think my reasoning will be?

I might even send a signed copy of my book to the person with the best (not necessarily correct) answer 🙂