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My son and I had a great time in Washington (where he was competing in a student entrepreneurship competition); the life of an entrepreneur can often be a lonely one, so it was good for my son to meet others following the same ‘student entrepreneur’ path.
The trip got me thinking about the interrelationship between ‘luck’ and ‘success’ …
It’s clear to me that the most successful – and, wealthy – people of all ages are indeed lucky … certain things had to go ‘just so’ in order for that big breakthrough to be made.
BUT, I think the luck factor is a rear view mirror effect …
… that is, if you position yourself for success, the luck will come but you won’t know exactly when or how.
1. They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities
2. They make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition
3. They create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations
4. They adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good
I’m not sure that this is the same as visualization techniques (a la The Secret), I just think it’s a difference in attitude.
In this context, Richard gives some advice on how to turn your luck for the better:
Unlucky people often fail to follow their intuition when making a choice, whereas lucky people tend to respect hunches. Lucky people are interested in how they both think and feel about the various options, rather than simply looking at the rational side of the situation. I think this helps them because gut feelings act as an alarm bell – a reason to consider a decision carefully.
Unlucky people tend to be creatures of routine. They tend to take the same route to and from work and talk to the same types of people at parties. In contrast, many lucky people try to introduce variety into their lives. For example, one person described how he thought of a colour before arriving at a party and then introduced himself to people wearing that colour. This kind of behaviour boosts the likelihood of chance opportunities by introducing variety.
Lucky people tend to see the positive side of their ill fortune. They imagine how things could have been worse. In one interview, a lucky volunteer arrived with his leg in a plaster cast and described how he had fallen down a flight of stairs. I asked him whether he still felt lucky and he cheerfully explained that he felt luckier than before. As he pointed out, he could have broken his neck.
Hopefully, reading this blog is one giant step along the path to making you a lucky person, too
As I mentioned in my last post, my 19 y.o. son’s online business is doing quite well …
… well enough for him to start thinking about investing in stocks. Or, real-estate.
But, right now, he’s thinking mainly about stocks.
Unfortunately, his thoughts are more towards Tesla and Twitter than GE and Unilever.
So, this is how the conversation went:
AJC Jr: I want to invest in Twitter. How much should I invest? I have quite a bit set aside …
Me: How much you have to invest is the least important part of your decision-making process.
AJC Jr: Oh! What’s the most important part, then?
Me: Well, son, you’re considering speculating in a technology stock that could go in any direction. How much to invest actually depends mostly on how much you’re prepared to lose?
AJC Jr: Hmmm. In that case, I think I’m prepared to lose $10k.
Me: OK. Now, how far do you think the stock is likely to fall.
AJC Jr: I think it’s going to go up!
Me: Of course you do BUT, if it does fall, how far do you think it will go … worst case?
AJC Jr: If I wait for a while – for all the IPO hype to die down – and buy Twitter at more reasonable $30 a share, then I think the most it will go down is $10.
Me: In that case, if you are prepared to lose $10k and you only think the stock will drop by 1/3 worst case, then you could invest up to $30,000.
AJC Jr: But, I could afford to invest a lot more in stocks!
Me: Sure! Just not in risky stocks … and, not more than $30k in Twitter. Now, take look at this stock chart for a nice, safe, boring trash dumping company I’m considering investing in …
When investing, decide if you’re in it for the long-term, or if you are simply blindly following some boom/bust tech trend; if the latter, look at how much you’re prepared to lose and make your decision on how much to invest based on that.
… but, I didn’t even think about beginning my entrepreneurial journey until I was 26 (and, didn’t actually start until I turned 30).
My son, on the other hand, started his entrepreneurial journey when he was 12.
Whereas most children begin by starting a newspaper delivery round, or opening a lemonade stand – although, at age 10, he wanted to start a cake shop outside his grandmother’s house (naturally, she would bake, he would sell) - my son was a little different:
At 12 years old, AJC Jr came to me and asked for $50 to start his new business on eBay. He offered me 49%. I accepted, just to see what would happen.
And, something did happen: a week later a package from China arrived at our front door, and over the next week a few smaller packages left the same way.
Two weeks later, my son came to me and said “here’s your $50 back” … he bought me back out!
[I didn't have the heart to tell him that it doesn't work like that. That's probably the only non-commercial assistance that I've given his business in the last 6 years].
Since then, after growing his eBay store for 3 or 4 years, my son ‘graduated’ to an online service-based business that nets him in excess of $60k p.a. (turning over $100k++ p.a.) and has bought him a car whilst still in high school.
He contracts programmers in India and has 2 full-time customer service contractors in Manila. One of them just sent him a Christmas present and a card thanking him, saying that – because of my son – he can now fulfil his life ambition of opening up his own coffee shop.
Not only is my son setting up his own life, he’s changing other people’s lives already … and, he’s just finished high school.
With luck, and your encouragement and support (but, NEVER, EVER push) your children may embark on a similar journey … after all, the barriers to starting a business (i.e. by going online) have been lifted.
Why should your entrepreneurial child start a mere lemonade stand, when any child can now start an online marketplace for anybody who wants lemonade and anybody who can make it (or supply the ingredients and know-how)?
… if trading stocks, options, FOREX, or commodities is something that you really want to do, I should at least teach you all that you really need to know before you begin.
And, it all has to do with catching monkeys …
But, rather than hearing it from me, far better to learn from the masters at Goldman Sachs, whom – or, so I am told by a very unreliable source – share this story with every new hire on their very first day of training:
Once upon a time in a village, a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.
The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort.
He further announced that he would now buy at $20 each. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.
Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to $25 for each monkey captured and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!
The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50!
However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.
In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, “Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 apiece and when the man returns from the city, you can sell each monkey back to to him for $50 each. He’ll be none the wiser and we’ll all have made some easy money!”
The villagers squeezed together all their savings and bought all the monkeys.
Then they never saw the man nor his assistant again … of course, now there were monkeys everywhere!?!
That’s how trading really works; welcome to ‘Goldman Sachs’!
So, before you begin trading, consider this:
EVERY trade is two-sided.
This means that if you WIN some other shmuck has to LOSE. Sounds a bit like a poker game, doesn’t it?
If you agree, it would be wise to remember a very important saying in the world of professional poker:
If you can’t see who the shmuck is at the table … it’s you!
So it goes with trading: for every trade there is a counter-trade, and it’s probably being made by somebody with more experience than you …
… since so much institutional money passes through the various markets each day your ‘adversary’ is most likely a professional investor.
Now, let me ask you:
Would you play heads up poker with a professional poker player for anything other than the learning experience or fun?
Or, do you really think you can turn a long-term profit catching monkeys?
Whilst I was traveling, I hope that you had a little time to reflect on some of the advice that I’ve been dishing out over the last few years?
It’s important that you don’t just follow my (or anybody’s) advice blindly, else you may end up making some fatal logic errors like this poor bloke:
Suppose I have 100K in an index fund that has a ten year return of 7.4%, a five year return of 8.2%, a 3 year return of 17.5%, and a 1 year return of 24.76%. That is a pretty dependable return over the last few years, but it will probably not keep up with the 24.76% return, but will probably maintain at least a 7% return over the next year. So I assume that 7% return.
I want to buy a car for 100K. I can take money out of the index fund to buy the car, and give up $7000 over the next year. I can borrow money at 2% and pay $2000 in interest over the next year. If I choose to pay cash, I lose $7K, but if I borrow and leave my own $100K in the mutual fund, I pay $2K and earn $7K, for a net gain of $5K.
So my logic says that paying cash for anything when the investment return is higher than the interest rate is a mistake. Suze Orman won’t give me advice on this, so if my logic is off, I hope someone will show me better logic.
Have you spotted the flaws?
The principle of taking a 2% loan on the car so that he can invest at 7% elsewhere is sound, BUT his assumptions are wrong:
1. A low-interest car loan is generally subsidized by price.
Check the true rate, if it’s more than 2% then he is probably better off negotiating the cash price lower THEN doing his cash v finance analysis.
2. Unless he’s planning on a 7+ year auto loan, the correct comparison is the finance rate on the loan against a CD for the same term.
This is because the stock market is way too volatile and he needs an investing horizon of at least 7 – 10 years before returns even approach ‘normal’.
In fact, even though this chart doesn’t show that time period, he needs at least 30 years (based on nearly 100 years of data) to ‘guarantee’ at least an 8% return (the worst thirty-year period delivered an average annual rate of 8.5% between 1929 and 1958).
3. Your past returns are NO predictor of future performance:
His ~25% of last year could just as easily be a LOSS of 48% next year. Look what happened in 2008:
But, he redeems himself, somewhat:
The same logic applies to my mortgage: I pay 2.62% on my house. I could pay it off, but taking the money out of an international fund with a one year return of 22.85% would result in a net loss of $100k over the next year (moving $500K from an investment at 22.85% to pay off a $500K balance at 2.62%).
4. On the other hand, his mortgage comparison is ideal:
If you can lock in a 3o year mortgage, fixed at today’s ridiculously low rates, and lock that money into a low-cost index fund for the same period then, yes, you are almost assured of a 3%+ net return, compounded for 30 years (which means that he should almost return 1.5 x his initial investment PLUS whatever profit he makes on your property).
That’s why real-estate is such a great long-term investment, and why the stock market is a terrible short-term gamble.
What advice would you give?
On Quora, somebody asked for “something I can learn in 10 minutes that will make me rich?”
The obvious answer is: “not much”.
… this is my blog, and I’m up for a challenge.
In fact, I think you can learn pretty much everything that you need to learn about getting rich in just 10 minutes.
Unfortunately for me, if I’m right, you’ll know everything you need to know in just this one post, so you’ll have no need to keep reading …
… and, if I’m wrong then you’ll simply delete your bookmark to this blog, as it will prove I can no longer deliver.
It appears that I lose either way
Even if this puts this blog out of business, I’m willing to take the 10 Minute Challenge because it also puts every other best-selling ‘get rich’ spruiker – and, let’s face it, most of them are crooks – out of business, as well.
And, that’s worth the sacrifice …
So, here goes:
I think the number one thing that you can learn in 10 minutes is: “what is your Number?” … in other words, how much is ‘rich’ for you?
For example, think about how much annual income you would need (start with $250k p.a. and work your way upwards) and multiply that number by 20.
[AJC: the question was about "rich", so the answer needs to be $5m to $10m++ ... but, this exercise is still valid even if your Number is based on 20 times $50k or $100k]
Once you have that Number in your head, think about how long you are prepared to wait before becoming ‘rich’ (if you are prepared to wait more than 5 to 10 years, surely you can give this exercise longer than 10 minutes)?
Once you have those two numbers, a few minutes playing with this Compound Annual Growth Rate calculator will tell you what % return you need on your investments each year, over that time frame.
Finally, 30 seconds with this chart will tell you everything that you need to know about how you can get rich, which was your original question:
Now, as promised, this really is everything you need to know in order to become rich …
… but, I’m not worried about losing readers, because – now that you know what to do – you’ll want to bookmark this page so that you can keep reading to learn how to do it
The Magic Number for small-business sales success is 5 …
… this means, that you shouldn’t give up too easily when trying to contact new prospects.
Don’t give up after just 2 attempts at contacting them, your prospect may just be busy, not quite ready to buy, or may really not want to talk to you.
The trouble is, you won’t really know which of these reasons it is – or, whether you really should give up on them – until you have tried to contact them 5 times!
That’s 5 e-mails; 5 voicemails; 5 calls to their cell-phone; 5 handwritten letters; 5 rocking up on the doorstep with coffee and donuts; or …
… better yet, some combination of the above (probably, in the order that I’ve presented).
What is a business plan?
I think they were asking more than the obvious …
… I think they were really asking: “what makes a good business plan? what are the things I should include/ leave out?”
In any event, my answer was – and remains:
“A business plan is …”
A waste of time.
*Keep reading and I’ll tell you the only three times when you must write a business plan*
A very well-known guru once said of planning:
Four things can happen when you plan:
1. You plan and things turn out in your favor
2. You plan and things do not turn out in your favor
3. You do not plan plan and things turn out in your favor, anyway
4. You do not plan and things do not turn out in your favor
Of these, only 1. and 4. are as you expect …
… the rub is that the guru said that all 4 outcomes are equally likely.
In other words, there is no direct link with planning and outcome.
Financial projections for a new company are ludicrous. If we could project financials accurately for a public company for even one day, we’d be billionaires. How can we think we can project reliable financials for a company that doesn’t even exist?
Having worked (actually funded) close to 30 startup businesses to date, I wholeheartedly agree!
In fact …
… I have never written a business plan for any of my businesses.
But, I have used financial projections and written executive summaries for three specific purposes:
1. To impress people
I have used a short, one page ‘executive summary’ (like this one) to impress other people i.e. as a ‘sales tool’ for clients, bankers, and investors.
But, make no mistake, these are largely works of faction (fiction dressed as fact) i.e. to be used purely as marketing documents: proposals, marketing and sales presentations, and the like. Do not mistake them with documents actually intended to convince yourself of your business’ future success. For that purpose, I use the following two types of plans …
[AJC: The executive summary that I have shared with you has a place close to my heart: it was my first attempt at a purely online business as a founder/investor. We built the site, but never launched it. It was wonderful, overly ambitiously wonderful ... the web equivalent of Howard Hughes' Spruce Goose]
2. To check if my business is an opportunity worth pursuing
This type looks like the financial part of a business plan, but it’s not a plan, it’s actually a sanity-check:
I did this kind of financial plan (the kind that Mike says is “ludicrous” … and, I would usually agree) only once and you should do the same:
In 1998, I found my Life’s Purpose, and it sucked …
… for me, it meant lots of traveling and time not earning an income (basically, it meant very early retirement). It sucked because now that I knew what I really wanted to do with my Life, I could no longer just sit around and wait for it – and, my business – to ‘just happen’.
So, to passively fund the true cost of my new-found life (an expensive one!), I knew that I simply had to come up with $5 million dollars in just 5 years!
[AJC: for new readers, this is how I came up with the title of this blog, because I actually ended up making $7 million, but it took 7 years]
Now, there was just one small problem: in 1998, I was over $30,000 in debt!
So, I quickly realized that the only hope that I had of going from negative $30,000 to positive $5 million in 5 years was if I could make my business worth that much, quickly.
Working backwards, I asked around (i.e. my accountant and my friends who had their own businesses) to see what my business would need to ‘look like’ in order to be worth $5m to somebody else? The general consensus was that, as a private company if sold to a private seller, it would be worth around three to five times it’s annual taxable profit.
That means my business would need to generate $1m to $1.5 million in profit each year within 5 years …
… with only one small problem: it was currently losing money!
So, in comes the ‘business plan’:
All I wanted to know was: “was it even possible for my business to generate $1m to $1.5 million in profit each year?”
So I drew out a basic business plan (actually, financial forecast) with outrageously large sales growth (and, commensurate growth in expenses) to see: “at what annual sales volume (less reasonable expenses) will it be possible for my business to generate $1m to $1.5 million in profit each year?”
Once I found that revenue (i.e. sales or turnover) number, it was then relatively easy – again, with the help of a spreadsheet – to work out exactly how many customers that I would need, based on some guesses around the size and frequency of their average purchases and so on …
[AJC: now, I'm not even good with numbers and spreadsheets, but I didn't even need my accountant to help me do any of this; but, if you need the help of yours, go ahead ... it's what they are there for!]
So, with the help of this ‘business plan’ (actually, the ‘financial forecast’ part of the business plan … but, it’s much the same thing), the question became a fairly simple one: ” can I find enough customers to make my business generate $1m to $1.5 million in profit each year?”
Sadly, the answer was: No.
My business would have needed each and every one of the Top 1,000 Corporations in Australia as my clients; given that I currently had 5, that was going to be a stretch [read: impossible]
So this form of business planning was for one reason and one reason only: to tell me if my business was an opportunity worth pursuing.
The answer, of course, was no … at least, not in it’s current form.
But, it pointed me to the right answer: which was to find markets that were much larger than Australia and relocate. Which we did … to Chicago … and, the rest is history.
[AJC: as it happens, I also had a financial epiphany, and realized that I should be investing - rather than spending - my businesses increasing profits, so a lot went back into the business, so that I could grow without needing to borrow or raise outside capital, but all of the remainder went into passive investments: stocks and real-estate. And, it's these investments that took me to my first $7m in 7 years. Eventually selling my businesses was a huge dollop of cream on top!]
3. To check if the business can break-even
I do one other kind of business plan (again, I’m now just focussing on the financial forecast section … I never write the other 30 pages typical of most business plans): it’s the one that looks like a typical business forecast spreadsheet [you can download a copy of this example, here]:
This one has a yearly projection of expected revenue growth, offset by expenses.
But, there’s only one thing that I’m looking for …
… it’s the column, where the bottom-line turns from red to black (actually, from negative to positive … from a loss to a profit)!
In fact, I’ll then fiddle with the numbers in that column to get the ‘bottom line’ number as close to $0.00 as possible (without being pedantic), because what I’m really trying to get a feel for is …
… the point where the business breaks-even.
[AJC: in this example, the 2008 column is closest to zero profit (showing a $107,000 loss), and just a few tweaks to the revenue and expenses quickly go that closer to $0.00, or break-even]
I do not care what Date the column says, that isn’t the point.
I do care what the numbers in that column look like:
- Does the sales number look achievable (i.e. for my business, is it more like 6 or 7 mid-size corporate customers than 1,000)?
- How many staff will I need? How big an office? Am I now going to bump into better funded competitors and have to try and steal all their customers, or is the market big enough for all of us?
- Will I need to expand interstate/internationally, franchise, and/or joint venture?
In other words, is it a business that I can comfortably take to break-even (before I run out of money)?
Well, once I know the business can break-even I know that I can then ride whatever storms come my way and take as long as I need to take to get my business to where it needs to be.
[HINT: see 2., above. Remember: even though I set my goal at $5m in 5 years, I actually took 7 years to make $5m plus a 'bonus' $2m]
So, don’t bother with a business plan, unless it’s for one of the three reasons that I outlined, above.
Now, tell me about your business plan successes and failures, so that mine don’t seem so lonely …
[Hey, that's you!]
I’m looking for the next $20 idea!
“Wait!”, you say, “Surely you mean that you’re looking for the next $1,000,000 idea?!”.
But, no (I say, barely managing to stifle a yawn), million dollar ideas are dime a dozen …
… why, I have one almost every single day!
[And, I bet you do, too]
No, what I’m really looking for is the next $20 idea …
… submitted by a team with $1,000,000 worth of execution.
Derek Sivers said it best:
It’s so funny when I hear people being so protective of ideas. (People who want me to sign an NDA to tell me the simplest idea.)
To me, ideas are worth nothing unless executed. They are just a multiplier. Execution is worth millions.
That’s why I don’t want to hear people’s ideas.
I’m not interested until I see their execution.
Derek Sivers’ chart shows that even the best idea is only worth $20 (whilst the worst ones – which means most ideas – will actually lose you money).
On the other hand, great teams can make even a mediocre idea fly, and take a great idea from zero to IPO in just a few, short years.
So, this chart’s just an example, to illustrate an idea, right?
According to David S Rose (a third generation serial entrepreneur/investor who has personally invested in over 80 businesses), it’s actually a remarkably accurate tool for assessing the current value of the new Internet and traditional businesses springing up all over the place …
Let’s take a couple of examples:
The Big Internet Idea
Let’s start by looking at almost any of the ‘amazing ideas’ bought by large corporates from their founders in the last few years, e.g: Yahoo has a pretty miserable track record when it comes to startup acquisitions, including Flickr, Delicious, and MyBlogLog and Google has also made a series of startup acquisitions that went nowhere.
Could it be that Google and Yahoo selected badly? Or, is it simply that a corporate cannot execute on these $20 ideas as well as their $1,000,000 founding teams?
The clue is in Google’s failed acquisition of Dodgeball … the founder left and started his next business: the hugely successful Foursquare.
So, in this case, Dennis Crowley (founder of both Dodgeball and Foursquare) came up with the $20 ideas but, in Google’s hands, execution of his first idea was worthless ($1), whilst his own execution of his second idea was clearly worth millions.
The Lifestyle Business
But, what happens if you take a pretty weak idea and give it to a good aspiring-entrepreneur?
Then you have Josh, who started a web-site drop-shipping high end camera gear from China to photographers all over the world, straight out of college.
That was a year ago, and now Josh has a great little business.
The idea may not be very good (after all, anybody can set up an online eCommerce store in about 5 minutes these days, and drop-ship stuff from the USA and China), but he has executed on his ideas when so many others simply don’t put the time and effort in, so they fail before they even begin …
…. so his $1 idea x his $100,000 execution really has given him a great ‘lifestyle’ business … earning him over $100k p.a. in just over a year.
Not bad for somebody so young; not bad for anybody who doesn’t have their eyes set on reaching the stars.
Not so, Ruslan Kogan …
Ruslan, a young Australian, was exactly like Josh, just a few years ago:
Kogan started drop-shipping TV’s and other electronic gear from China to Australia. But, what elevated his idea from an easily replicable $1 idea to a $15 ‘great idea’ was branding everything with his own name: Kogan.
But, what turned his $15 ‘great idea’ into the multi-million dollar business that it is today is amazing execution ($10,000,000): http://www.dreambuildinspirelead.com/3-lessons-from-entrepreneur-ruslan-kogan/
Yes, Ruslan’s business, today, is easily worth $150,000,000 ($15 idea x $10,000,000 execution).
See, this unique valuation tool really does work!
So, don’t be the last person in the world to realize that even the world’s most amazing ideas only $20: it’s million dollar execution that counts … if you want a $20 million business?
But, don’t come to me to fund you until you can prove it
Winning the lottery may not kill you, but 70% of the time, it spells financial suicide:
It is estimated that up to 70% of all people who suddenly receive large amounts of money will lose that money within a few years.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that the twin culprits are:
1. Gaining a large sum of money too quickly; this can be from an inheritance, winning the lottery, selling a business, and so on.
2. Impulse spending; the more you have, it seems, the bigger the amounts that you are prepared to spend on impulse.
The problem is, if you gain your money too quickly, you don’t give yourself time on the way up, to learn the lessons of money management that need to be learned in order not to fall back down.
And, when it comes to money, the bigger they are (as in, the bigger the windfall gain), the harder they fall:
So, here’s my golden advice on dealing with ‘sudden money’ that will help you avoid going broke again …
… as soon as you get that windfall, start using this table to effectively control that spending impulse:
If you hit the jackpot and made more than a couple of million, then you just start adding zero’s to the dollar amounts in this table, to suit!
But, the ‘default table’, as presented above, is a pretty good place to start …
… and, there’s no reason why you need to wait for the windfall before you start using it