Nothing is impossible!

[pro-player width=’530′ height=’253′ type=’video’]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKOEQVgONh0[/pro-player]

If you ever needed inspiration to take immediate, massive action to get off the ‘rat race’, just check out this video …

… but, before you wave it off as just another thing to laugh at the Japanese about, think about all the things that YOU do in your day to earn a meagre crust: flip the bird to another driver; have one flipped to you; kiss up to the boss; rush to meet a stupid, meaningless deadline; steam/iron/fold another shirt; and the list goes on … and on … and on … and …. [groan]

Of course, there’s another message: I bet you never thought it possible to get all those people ON the train? How about your Number … does it seem possible? 😉

Adrian

Acknowledgment: Thanks to Brandon for the video http://www.brandonlaughridge.com/all-aboard/

When will you be a millionaire?

Last week, I posed the question: how much should you have saved by now?

With the general consensus being that pre-packaged formulas such as “6.1 times your current salary by age 50” mean a hill o’beans because:

a) the best these ‘common wisdom’ formulas will get you to is just over broke by the time you work to 65 (and, not a day before!), and

b) they fail to take into account that YOU need to have saved enough to ensure that you’ve reached Your Number by Your Date.

The corollary question is “when will you be a millionaire?”, one which  CNN Money attempts to answer with this neat online calculator:

Picture 1

The problem with this calculator is obvious … but, in case you missed it, I blew up the bottom-right corner of the above image for you:

Picture 2

Your ‘desired nest egg’ – in this calculator – isn’t variable … it’s One Million … that’s it!

My issue is that plenty of people (fortunately, none of them readers of this blog) – with the support of an ‘authority’ such as CNN Money – still think that $1,000,000 is something to aspire to!

If $1 million isn’t just a hurdle along the way to your Number – and, a fairly early and relatively small hurdle at that – then you are destined for a VERY late retirement or an early trip to the ashram to meditate all day and eat rice at every meal … not that there’s anything wrong with aspiring to Asceticism 🙂

Adrian

PS I’m sure there’s plenty of other online calculators that will do the job, although I couldn’t find one that accepts >20% annual return and we know that we need more than that! If you find a good one, please post a link in the comments.

Are these people aiming high enough?

On Monday I wrote a post about ING’s Retirement Number Calculator … then I found this YouTube video showing their sponsored Georgia Marathon participants carrying their ‘Numbers’,  presumably as a marketing ploy …

… I noticed something really interesting when I watched it. I wonder if you did, too?

What I noticed was that the Number for most people, was around $1,000,000 (and, the largest that I noticed was $1.8 million) … would this be enough for you?

How to excite a millionaire …

 

It really doesn’t take much to excite me, as evidenced by this commercial that I just came across …

… given my obvious passion on the subject of Numbers (as opposed to mere ‘numbers’) you won’t be surprised to hear that I jumped straight onto ING’s web-site to see what their take on this whole ‘Number-thing’ was:

ING Your Number - 1

It’s a neat calculator that – in 4 or 5 simple ‘plug-in-the-numbers’ – gives you Your Number … or, does it?

You be the judge:

ING Your Number - 2

…. now, I might just be a touch pedantic, but isn’t the $7 million dollar question: “how much income do you need in retirement?”.

In other words, isn’t the whole point of such a tool to help you come up with this number, rather than asking you to pluck it out of ‘thin air’ [AJC: like I just did with the $250k figure that I randomly plugged in]?!

And, without it, isn’t this just some sort of glorified calculator? 🙂

BTW: According to ING, my Number is:

ING Your Number - 3

… guess I’m $2 Million short; can anyone lend me some 😛

Work backwards to move forwards …

work backwardsIn Monday’s post, I took a look how Scott – a young family man and doctor – could use his Number/Date to help him evaluate whether to buy his business partner out now or simply wait 30 months, when his partner retires from their medical practice.

Without the ‘filter’ of his Number/Date, this would be a very difficult decision, with so many risk/reward variables … 

… but, it’s actually a very simple decision: 

Which is the most comfortable (i.e. lowest risk, ‘feel right’) alternative that seems most likely to ‘guarantee’ that your Number/Date – this most critical of life goals – can be achieved? 

This is such an important concept that I want to share another example, this time from Trey and Juliana a young couple just starting out on their financial journey together: 

Two nights ago I got Trey to work on a life’s purpose. Last night we brainstormed money making ideas: Trey really wants to open a thrift store and we know a perfect location right near the college. Kind of like a Buffalo Exchange, that offers cool music, buying and selling jeans and ultra cool clothing items, shoes , hats and such as well as art and records.

 Then we thought of our life purpose and though about making it a Non Profit and helping abused children in some way.

 The thought occurred that perhaps as a nonprofit it might be possible to get lower rent, tax breaks, donations and other benefits while helping children. Perhaps we could choose a local children’s or battered woman’s shelter to benefit from our thrift store. There is a lot of research and we will need cash up front.

 [Trey is also an artist and has developed] a whole line of B**** B*** Gang which he came up with, (Little cartoon boys) … I think he should license them and sell them. He though of making a comic strip online or illustrating kids books.

 I think this would be a better idea than the thrift store because a store ties one down to one spot. However, Trey is really into the thrift store idea.

 Another idea is blogging for cash. Perhaps starting 3 separate blogs about separate things such as economical recipes, the battle of the bulge ( weight loss) and one about saving money. I know it would take a while to get subscribers however it does not tie one down the way a store does. I know that this will be time consuming and I will need to do much research as to how one gets paid.

 Trey might open a thrift store and I might start a blog or three. It is all about multiple streams of income. I bet I could write children’s books. What if I wrote books and a portion of the proceeds went to fund parenting classes.

For some people, the well of ideas runs dry, but for other – like Juliana [AJC: and me !] – the ideas flow so thick and fast it’s hard to decide where to start …

 … so, we often put the shutters up and don’t start at all!

 If this is you, I want to share a novel concept: It’s always a good idea to work BACKWARDS …

 … here are the steps, as they might apply to Trey and Juliana:

 Step 1. Find your Life’s Purpose – They’ve already done this. Check!

 Step 2. Choose your Lifestyle – I showed Trey and Julian where to find some great ‘sample lifestyles’ here (click on the links inside that post to see some sample lifestyles at different $$$$ levels).

 The idea here is to choose the type of lifestyle that they hope their business/es to fund one day … this will help them immensely (as we’ll see shortly) in choosing the right business!

 Step 3. Account for Inflation – This is actually quite easy! Simply double your chosen ‘lifestyle’ amount for every 20 years before you intend to ‘retire’ (i.e. to start living it). If you only intend to wait 10 years, then just add 50% to your annual lifestyle amount.

 Step 4. Find your Number – Multiply your final ‘inflated’ lifestyle number by 20: THAT’S your Number!

I left Trey and Juliana some further guidelines on their Life’s Purpose post at the Share Your Number community site.

 Step 5. Work Backwards – Now’s the time to decide which opportunities can be sold by their Date for at least the amount of their Number.

 Let’s assume their Number is large (right now, it’s $50 Million, but my suspicion is that they will revise this well-downward once they complete the above steps against the filter of their Life’s Purpose).

 If it remains a large Number, a blog is unlikely – on its own – to get them there, unless their name is John Chow whose blogs generate about $1,000,000 a year (then again, he does own Technorati.com!).

 So, I would advise Trey and Juliana to look at ideas that can expand exponentially, with relatively low capital requirements … here’s a couple of ideas:

 Trey’s idea of licensing a cartoon series might have great potential: he could generate interest by starting online (here’s where Juliana’a blog idea CAN help), then hope to get picked up by one of the traditional avenues (e.g. syndication in the news and/or become the next ‘South Park’ cartoon series) supported by product sales and licensing … and, a LOT of luck!

 Alternatively, as Debbie suggested, if they can:

 a)    Successfully create their first Thrift Store and operate it profitably, and

b)    Find a unique angle, so that it stands out from similar businesses (not just in this location), and

c)     Document all of their operating procedures, such that any ‘dummy’ could run the business just as successfully as they can

 … then, they may just have a business that can be franchised.

 By working backwards, Trey and Juliana – with a little help of a pencil/paper/calculator or spreadsheet – can decide which of these opportunities is really worth pursuing!

After all, if it can’t help you to reach your Number/Date, why bother? 😉

Your Craig’s List Ad …

Scott has placed an ad on Craigs List:

WANTED: A very successfully run healthcare practice, specializing in spinal rehabilitation, exercise, massage therapy as well as other holistic services such as nutritional advice and expertise. Professionally run to the highest of clinical standards with a well-trained, goal-oriented staff, necessary equipment and supplies. Low monthly overhead, time-proven practice and business design system already in place, extremely high cash-flow and yearly profit margins, ongoing community marketing programs in place, all in a state and local community that harbors terrific heath insurance coverage for these services. Totally turn-key, fully developed business design, everything from new employee training techniques, to patient marketing, to patient scheduling, to treatment programs and proven care systems are all in place and can be duplicated, expanded upon and repeated in additional clinic ventures and startups time and again. The commercial property that the clinic resides in may also be purchased in addition to the business at reasonably assessed property value and additional rents may be collected by adjoining business that resides in the same building, once building is purchased.

Now, this isn’t a real ad, and Scott didn’t really place it, you see he has a dilemma and is trying to solve it right here.

Let me bring you up to date … … Scott is a doctor – living on a beautiful country estate with his young family (and, a couple of horses!); his savings ethic is an inspiration (Scott saves around 50% of his reasonably high salary).

Now, Scott is a partner in his small medical practice (one that specializes in non-traditional forms of healing, even though Scott and his partner are qualified medical doctors) and he has wonderful altruistic dreams of one day being able to spend the bulk of his time helping the underprivileged in the US and overseas to receive the highest quality medical care that he can offer.

For Scott, this means eventually putting his practice on ‘autopilot’ so that he can:

(a) bring in more ‘pro bono’ patients (as many as he can handle without the practice going broke!), and

(b) take extended periods off to travel to 3rd world countries dispensing his unique brand of medical assistance.

Scott’s worked out that he needs around $4,000,000 in 8 to 10 years, and then he should be able to implement his plan.

The good news is that Scott’s partner is set to hand him 100% of the medical practice in 30 months time (Scott’s only ‘investment’ is the work that he puts in between now and then) …

… this, along with Scott’s aggressive savings-and-frugality-strategy should put Scott smack on target in 8.5 years! Scott’s dilemma is:

1. Should he just stay the course, and trust everything to work out … worst case: work for another few years, if some of his assumptions should prove incorrect?

2. Should Scott buy his partner out now (he’s guessing that it would cost him $200k), which would free him up to open up a second (or even third and fourth) practice now?

Should Scott take the ‘safe road’ to his Number and maybe make it, or should he high-gear onto the aggressive path to his Number and scoot right on past it?

We won’t solve Scott’s problem here, that’s the purpose of the Spotlight post that I have just placed on the 7 Millionaires … In Training! site, and I encourage you to read that post and follow (better yet, contribute to) the comments …

… but, I want to demonstrate yet another use for your Number, here:

[AJC: Buy your New Improved Number here! You can wash dishes with it, ride horses with it, tune your car’s engine with it … but, wait! There’s more … if you buy your Number today, we’ll even throw in an aggressive Date and a FREE set of steak knives! Yes, your Number is the chamois for all occasions 😛 ]

You see, the usual filter for business and investment decisions is:

1. Risk – what is the risk profile of the various investment alternatives in front of you? What is your ‘appetite’ for risk? And,

2. Reward – what is the expected return of the various investment alternatives in front of you?

Choose the investment alternative that provides the greatest return, yet meets your risk profile.

But, I want to throw up an alternative filter:

a) Which of the various investment alternatives available will guarantee that you meet your investment goals; in the case, the ultimate test is its ability to achieve your Number by your Date?

b) Then find the lowest risk alternative that AT LEAST gets you there.

So, that is the message that I delivered to Scott:

If your current strategy (i.e. wait 30 months for the practice to be given to you, free and clear) can get you to your Number even after you run some ‘likely case’ and ‘worst’ case scenarios around the various investment returns (Scott also requires some RE and stock investments to achieve his Number) then why would you do anything else?

But, if it’s reasonably possible that you’ll fall short – unless EVERYTHING goes right, and, if delaying your Date is not an acceptable alternative – then, in my opinion, Scott has no choice:

He has to run the numbers around buying out his partner, and see where that takes him!

I’m keen to find out what happens, how about you?

Nasty Mr Inflation ….

Nasty_ManMost people that I talk to seem to misunderstand inflation and how to apply it to thinking about your retirement …

… the easiest way to deal with this is to think of inflation in TWO pieces:

1. Leading up to retirement (a.k.a. “life after work”)

2. After you have stopped working

It should be easy to see why:

In the former you are working with a stream of income (e.g. your salary) trying to build up to something big (i.e. your ‘nest egg’) …. whereas, in the latter you are working with a FIXED amount of money (i.e. your nest egg) and are trying to create an annuity stream (i.e. a pseudo-salary).

Can you see how one is almost the exact reverse of the other, yet inflation plays a HUGE – but different in effect – part in both?!

Today, we’ll deal with leading up to retirement:

Dealing with inflation in the planning towards your Number (i.e. your nest egg) is dealt with quite elegantly (for the mathematically-minded) in this post by Pinyo:

Step 1: How much do I need today?

I need $40,000 per year

Step 2: Adjust for inflation.

Now we have to adjust that $40,000 for inflation. For this example, we assume inflation rate is 3.5% per year. We accomplish this with the following formula:
Inflation Adjusted $ = Today’s $ * ((1 + inflation rate)^ Number of years to retirement)

Inflation Adjusted $ = $40,000 * (1.035 ^ 30)

Inflation Adjusted $ = $113,000 (rounded up)

I need $113,000 per year after inflation

Step 3: Multiply by 25

The formula:
Retirement Needs = Inflation Adjusted Income * 25

Retirement Needs = $2,825,000

I need to save $2.8 million to begin retirement

I can’t get the math to work, but you need to visit Pinyo’s post for the full explanations and try it for yourself …

We have some slightly different rules:

For example, I presume that inflation will be at least 4% for the next X years (economists were predicting 5+%, but who knows now, given the current economic situation?!) and I have been assuming a ‘safe retirement withdrawal rate’ of 5% (i.e. Rule of 20). Together, these come to a slightly lower ‘number’ than Pinyo, but not by much: $2.4 million. That’s why, for planning purposes, I don’t get too hung up on what numbers you decide to choose …

That’s also why I find that for us non-mathematically-minded-people [AJC: yes, I have 2nd year college math and I still can’t add in my head … let me see 1 + 3 = $7 million … good enough for me! 😉 ] that the following table is ‘good enough’ to estimate for inflation; if you earn $40,000 per year (or whatever you currently earn, or want to earn when you retire), then to estimate how much income you need to replace:

•    5 years out, add 25% to the current amount.
•    10 years out, add 50% to the current amount.
•    20 years out, double the current amount.

30 years out, we would simply multiply by 2.5 (which ‘only’ gets us to $100k, rather than Pinyo’s $113k). Again, for planning purposes, I actually think that this is close enough … but, if you are good with a calculator (or, better yet a spreadsheet), go for it!

__________

In the next and final part of this two-part series, we will look at how to deal with inflation after you stop work / retire …

The Time/Money Paradox

The uber-blogger, John Chow uses a surprisingly interesting visit to the park with his daughter to make a REALLY IMPORTANT POINT about the “trading time for money (and, money for time) dilemma” that afflicts most people … and, how he is one of the lucky few who avoids it by blogging …

… BUT, there are VERY FEW ways that you can earn money that don’t involve time. So, for the rest of us, we can separate our lives into two portions:

1. Earning/Investing until we reach our Number

2. Having both the time and money to live our Life’s Purpose

The aim is to accelerate the transition to 2. from 1. … how will YOU do it?

How to easily quadruple your results!

Too much talk about Numbers, Dates and Compound Growth Rates can make your head spin!

But, Scott makes an interesting observation:

What I learned from this post and using the Annual Effective Rate calculator: http://www.investopedia.com/calculator/AnnualEffectiveRate.aspx

is that if I keep up my focus, work and investing for another 5 years past my 10 year date, I can drop my required compound growth rate by 3%(from 40% down to 37%), however, quadruple my number accomplished from 4 million to 16 million, and i’ll still be in my 40’s.

Incredible what taking a little more time can do for you!

What Scott says is absolutely true, but also consider:

How much does delaying your Date by 1, 3 or 5 years (say) REDUCE your compound growth rate if you KEEP your Number?

Also, what does reducing your compound growth rate do for you in terms of changing the way that you need to think about building up your nest egg?

Does it mean that you no longer need to start a business, or invest in real-estate? Will keeping your money in Index Funds via your 401k do the trick?

So, rethink your Number and Date – but NOT at the expense of your Life’s Purpose

… then, when you do get to your Date, DO allow the momentum of the activities that got you there to carry you on just a little bit further … you could double your Number, just like that!

Don’t believe me? It’s exactly what I did in the two years following my own 7 million 7 year journey 😉

Special Announcement!

billboard2

I have been working on a project … call it a labor of love (when you find out what it is, you’ll decide that if this is my idea of ‘love’, I need psychiatric treatment) … and, I want you to participate!

Let me take you back to where this project had it’s genesis:

In 1998, I was struggling financially and directionally … I had my two break-even businesses, a lovely wife and two babies, but no money and no major prospects: it would take a miracle to get the businesses above break-even.

Then I came across the concept of the Number.

A simple idea: your Number is the amount of money that you need to have set aside (by whatever Date you happen to decide upon) so that you can be financially free to [insert goal of choice: retire; play golf professionally; write a book; volunteer abroad; move into the old-people’s home or Florida, which pretty much amounts to the same thing; etc.].

At the same time, I found my Life’s Purpose: to be constantly traveling mentally, physically, and spiritually …

… which means nothing to you, but meant everything to me (which is all that counts, right?).

Understanding my ‘life after work’ dream (in my case, it meant discovering my Life’s Purpose) told me that I needed $5 Million within 5 years. A major wake-up call considering that, at the time, I was $30,000 in debt!

If you’ve read my $7 Million Dollar Journey you will know that, because I found my Number, I made it.

I decided that I had to give back, by helping others to understand, find, and achieve their Numbers, as well …

… so, to help you figure out your own Number (and, Life’s Purpose … if you so desire) I have created a new web-site.

I have also created a unique home for you on the Internet, a place where you can Share Your Number with like-minded people … hopefully, you will connect with others who can help you on your way, and you may even be instrumental in helping them!

Take a look at these sites, then join up and Share Your Number … it’s easy, fun, and could be very, very rewarding for those who actively participate.

As readers of this blog, and ‘charter members’, your membership will always be free. And, tell your friends, they can be charter members, too 🙂

The only ‘catch’ is that I have not officially launched this site, yet, so you will be the ‘beta testers’ … try it out and let me know what you think using the form, below (just type then ‘submit’):