The lament of the middle-class millionaire ….

I must confess that I understand EXACTLY what this ‘poor woman’ is saying …

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=768292103

Ryan (who is one of the Final 15 in my 7 Millionaires … In Training! ‘grand experiment’) sent the link to me saying:

About 6 months ago I did a similar exercise to determine how much I would need to “retire” and live the kind of life I wanted to (travel, philanthropy, golf, bigger house,activities, etc.). Although it seemed like a stretch to even write down, I settled on $10 million in 10 years. After watching a show on cnbc, in particular this clip, http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=768292103 , I think it’s time to revise my estimate!!! And to think that a couple of years ago I thought if you had a million dollars you could do anything you wanted.

The exercise that Ryan is referring to is the culmination of a series of posts on http://7m7y.com designed for one purpose and one purpose only: to help you find your Number.

This video – I believe – helps explain why I think that your Number should be couched in terms of required living expenses rather than some nebulous lump sum (such as $1 million; $5 million; $10 million; etc.) … although I also show you how to calculate the ‘lump sum’ that you will need.

But, Ryan doesn’t need more than $10 Million (a.k.a. $500,000 per year … indexed for inflation) to live a life that simply involves “travel, philanthropy, golf, bigger house,activities, etc.”; he just needs to realize that on $500k per year:

1. He will not be able to afford ownership (fractional or full) of multiple houses, jets, yachts and the like (although one used Ferrari isn’t out of the question), and

2. He will NOT be rich … rather ‘comfortably off’ – at least, according to Felix Dennis the rather quirky (and exceedingly rich) British/American magazine publisher.

… it’s a tough life

It's a Wonderful Life …

There was a great black-and-white movie that they show every Christmas, without fail, that starred Jimmy Stewart. The movie is called It’s a Wonderful Life and, if you’ve never seen it, I highly encourage you to find it and watch it.

It’s a particularly great – and relevant – movie for anybody following along (hopefully, actively!) in my 7 Millionaires … In Training! ‘grand experiment’.

Even though the movie was a financial ‘failure’ when it was first released, and failed to win any of the 6 Oscars it was nominated for, it has since been recognized for the tour de force it really is and the film has since been recognized by the American Film Institute as one of the 100 best American films ever made, and placed number one on their list of the most inspirational American films of all time.

The premise is that George (Jimmy Stewart) has a Savings & Loan business that defaults and he feels that he has let his town down and tries to commit suicide. An ‘angel’ then shows George what life in the town would have been like without him – showing him how many people he ‘touched’ in his life and gives him a second chance.

This clip – the final 9 minutes of the film – picks up there …

The financial relevance?

Nothing and everything, as those following here are about to find out … but, it may help to explain why I have asked them (and, you, if you want to follow along actively or passively):

• To answer 10 ‘soul searching’ life questions.
• To think deeply about what you really don’t want in your life
• To think even more deeply about what you what do want in your life

… and more.

I hope that you’ll take the time to look in and see what all the life-changing fuss is about.

The Hidden Risk of your 401k …

Recently I wrote a post that challenged the ‘Set It And Forget It 401k Brigade’ to at least rethink their strategy instead of just automatically maxing out their 401k …

… in doing so, I mentioned that there was a ‘hidden risk’ in your 401k.

Whilst the 401k proponents put forth all the wonderful, low risk arguments in favor of 401k’s (quoting long-term market averages of 12%+) they conveniently forget:

1. Fees: Figure around 0.5% – 1.5% in fees set by the funds that your 401k invests in and the fees associated with managing the 401k and the underlying funds (but, only the ones that your employer doesn’t pay). Most of these are conveniently hidden in your returns.

2. Market Dips: Did you know that while  the ‘market’ averages 12%+returns, you can only count on 8% as your 30 year return, 4% as your 20 year return, and 0% as your 10 year return from the market. My rule of thumb is: when planning your retirement, count on less … enjoy the possible upside when you are wrong!

3. Inflation: It takes time to get to the nest-egg that your 401k will give you … 20 - 40 years when you are starting out … so $1 Million just ain’t all that much money (now, let alone 20 – 40 years time!).

But, that’s not the hidden risk that I was talking about … it’s much, much more dangerous than those …

… the hidden risk of your 401k is that you may not get enough out of it to retire well.

Almost as bad, you may not care enough now to plan for what may happen then; after all, for you ’retirement’ may be still 10 – 20 – 40 years away! Although, it need not be …

So, what do I mean?

As I said yesterday, the arguments that the 401k proponents put forth center around: it’s ‘forced savings’; it’s pre-tax savings; and, the possibility that you get free money from your employer!

All good things to have in an investment. But, not the only things …

… in fact, there’s only ONE THING that I want from an investment: that it gives me a return that supports My Life.

Not, the life that the investment is capable of supporting … not the life that I have … not even the life that I want … but, nothing less than the life that I need.

Just remember this: there’s nothing holy about a 401k.

The purpose of your 401k investment is NOT to get a tax break, not to put aside 15% of your gross salary a month, and not to get any employer match … they are just (important) features …

Just like any other investment, your 401k’s purpose is to help you get you to Your Number so that you can live Your Dream!

Anything less is just settling for less. So, let’s consider the binary options here:

1. Your 401k will get you to your Number

You know your Number, right? And, you know when you need it?

If not, either read this and do this … or, you’ve just wasted a valuable 3.5 minutes beer drinking, relaxing time that would have had a far more beneficial effect on your life than what you have just read … or, will ever read … on this blog!

And, you know what your 401k can deliver by then, right? Not when your employer says that you retire, but by when you need The Number!

If you haven’t done the calculation yet, ask a Financial Adviser to help you (or follow along with our 7 Millionaires … In Training! at http://7m7y.com starting with this article) …

… you think knowing this might be just a tad important?

Now compare what your 401k is likely to be able to produce (now, I would not be using ‘average returns from the stock market’ for this life-critical calculation … I’d want a buffer … but, that’s really up to you and your bean-counter) with Your Number …

… if they are much the same, stick with your 401k (after all, it is ‘set it and forget it simple’). Then concentrate on keeping your job and, getting bigger and bigger pay-rises, because you’ll need ‘em!

2. Your 401k will NOT get you to your Number

If your 401k will not get you to your Number, what choice do you have but to at least consider alternates, be they instead of -  or in addition to – your 401k savings plan …

… be they real-estate, stocks, 2nd/3rd/4th jobs, marrying into money, winning the lottery, businesses … 

…. be they whatever …?

Of course, you could just give up and settle for your lot in life; who am to tell you not to give up on your dreams?

I’ll leave that little job up to Frankie

That little pup called inflation …

Sometimes you can’t see further than the back of your own hand until somebody points the way …

… then it just seems so damn obvious that you wonder why all of those other dopes out there are still staring at the backs of their hands!

I was preparing for a radio interview the other day and I happened to pull up an old e-mail (that I mentioned in a previous post) from Fidelity – a fine investment management company – that proudly proclaimed:

Did you know that weekly contributions of $34 could potentially grow to over $76,000 in 20 years?

At the time, I just wrote my little counter-piece and laughed it off because that $76,000 probably won’t even buy you a car in 20 years time!

But in thinking about it – and, this is what I said on air – it’s actually much worse than that …

You go without lunch every day for the next 20 years, and you don’t even get a new car?!

How the hell are you ever going to retire!

Think about it, if $34 a week gets you $76,000 in 20 years … then, you would need to save $340 a week for the next 20 years just to get $760,000 !

Now, even if you could figure a way to save $340 a week (starting right now!) $760,000 a year in 20 years is NOT the same as having $760,000 today …

$760,000 today will get you a reasonably ‘safe’ income of $30,000 a year (indexed for inflation) if you invest the capital wisely, if you don’t suffer any major losses, and if you don’t spend any of it up-front or along the way.

In other words, the equivalent of $30,000 a year has to buy you everything you need and want for the rest of your life!

But …

That’s only if you have the $760,000 today!

If you’re like the rest of the world, to get there you’ll need to put aside that $340 a week for the next 20 years, but that little pup called inflation will be nipping at your heels the whole way …

… and, that $760,000 in 20 years will only be ‘worth’ $350,000 if inflation is just 4%. I can’t even begin to think about what would happen if inflation rises to 5%+, as predicted.

That means that you get to live on $14,000 (in today’s dollars) a year!

So, how much did you expect to save?

By when?

But, wait, Fidelity is offering a 7% annualized return … aren’t you going to invest that money in the stock market (an ultra-low-cost Index Fund, of course) that averages 13% a year?

Sure.

Because the day that YOU invest the market is going to crash, WWIII is going to break out, the sub-prime crisis will just be getting into full swing (again … will they never learn?), or worse.

YOU, my friend, will need to plan for numbers that you can rely on because you only get one shot at this …

… and, the money has to last you for the rest of your life  – unless your backup plan is (a) still checking out groceries at the local supermarket when you’re 75, (b) eating dog food, or (c) let me hear it [leave a comment].

And, the number that you can rely on is this: 8%

Because, you can put your money in an ultra-low-cost Index Fund (we’ll forget about minimums and entry/exit fees for now) and rely on the fact that the market has never had a 30 year period where the returns have been less than 8% (that includes periods of war and pestilence and pure market stupidity).

… but, now you have to wait 30 years; because if you only wait 20 years, you can only be sure of getting a 4% annualized return, and that just sucks.

The good news is that if you can wait 30 years so that you can get a ‘guaranteed’ 8% return and you can keep socking that $340 away, week in week out for 30 years, well that’s over $200,000 a year (at a 4% ‘safe’ withdrawal rate)!

Unfortunately, we still have that little pup (a.k.a. inflation) dragging at us via his leash, which means that you can really only comfortably rely on an annual income of $25,000 in today’s dollars.

But …

You will do (much) better if you can start socking away, without fail, $340 a week and indexing that with inflation as well (in 15 years you’ll be putting away $588 a week and in 30 years $1,060 a week).

In fact, if you can maintain that regimen for 30 years, you’ll deserve a medal as well as your annual income of $37,000 in today’s dollars!

$14,000 … $25,000 … or even $37,000 a year in 30 years: is that really what you had in mind?

I suspect not, or you wouldn’t be reading this blog

My biggest mistake?

A new tool to drive traffic to your page: if you haven’t seen Pinyo‘s new site, yet, click here now … I am predicting that it will become THE place to see what late breaking personal finance stories and blogs are hot right now!

I’m not really sure how it works, so I just submitted 3 or 4 of my posts to see what happens … I hope that you will visit PF Buzz, find them, and give each post the rating that it deserves It’s just an experiment … we’ll see how well it works … in the meantime, here’s today’s post …

I’m often asked what my biggest semi-financial mistakes were … and, I can point to some doozies:

1. I was offered the opportunity to head up a regional business unit promoting one of the first ever PC’s in the market … I said “no thanks … the future’s in mainframes!”

2. I sold 5 ounces of gold (losing money on the transaction) about a week before the 1980′s boom that took gold from $350 and oz. to over $1,800 an oz.!

3. I constantly choose to enter the markets just at the end of a major bull-run … because that’s when I happen to be cashed up.

But, my biggest financial mistake? That’s easy … not getting ‘religion’ early …

Explanation: we all know the benefit of SAVING early:

The following graph shows three investors, each of whom invests $1,000 a year until age 65. However, one begins at age 25, investing a total of $40,000; one at age 35, investing a total of $30,000; and one at age 45, investing a total of $20,000. Each earns 7 percent per year and, for purposes of this illustration, the effects of taxes and inflation are ignored.

The Power of Compounding

Source: Investment Company Institute

And, you already know my view on this: big deal … for each $1,000 invested the start-early guy saves $215k by the time he is 65 … or $2.15m if he can scrape up $10k each year from the age of 25.

That will provide the equivalent of about $30k a year (today) in retirement living (then) …. big deal.

No, I’m talking about the equivalent compounding power of starting to boost your income early … so that you can pump far more than $10k a year into your ‘retirement investments’ …

… imagine what you would get OUT if you could pump $100k a year IN?

The key is to get religion early … the ‘religion’ that I am talking about is the massive why that leads to the massive action that leads to massive amounts of money.

I can easily divide my financial life into two distinct parts:

1. Pre-Why: Until 1998 I plodded along with my little business slowly trying to grow it. I worked hard, but had no particular goal other than to try and eke out a living. My results were unspectacular, to say the least.

2. Post-Why: In 1998, I read the E-Myth Revisited by Michael Gerber; in it he recommended thinking about what I wanted my life to be like when I was ‘done’ and to think about how much money that would take (and by when).

I now had a massive ‘why’ and an ‘oh shit’ amount of money required to support it!

That’s what kicked off my $7 Million Dollar Journey.

So, what was my ‘big mistake’???

There was NOTHING that I did in that 7 years that I COULDN’T have done in the preceding 7 years, or in the 7 years before then!

If I had ‘got religion’ early, I may have reached my goal early … that little ‘financial mistake’ makes every other financial mistake that I could have made, did make, and probably will still make … pale into insignificance.

Which brings me to a comment made by Blogrdoc to a recent post, in which he says:

I seek business success primarily as a challenge and because I want more in life. Not more money, but more impact on others and being able to have fun.

When you’re a 9-5 corporate stiff like me, it’s so easy to just let life ‘happen’. For me, the motivation to get off my ass and try something different from my 9-5 is the tough part.

That was me, pre-1998 … but, 7 years post-1998, I went from there ($30k in debt) to $7 million cash in the bank … fully retired a couple of years later at the age of 49.

Mistake? Hell, yeah …

… I could have just as easily have retired in the same financial position at age 39 or 29!

At the very least, I would have had a helluva buffer against failure: Shoot for 29 … missed? Oh, well … shoot for 39 …

So, when you are still in your 20′s or even 30′s, I suggest that you try and ‘get religion’ early. Here’s how Blogrdoc might do it:

1. He could look for the real meaning in “I want more in life. Not more money, but more impact on others and being able to have fun”.

What would it mean to Blogrdoc … his FAMILY … hell, the WORLD ! … for him to have this?

What about your WHY?

Would it mean enough to you to really need it?

Would it mean enough to you that you would feel that your life was a failure if you didn’t have it? Would it be enough of a need to carry you through the 1st, 2nd, and 100th obstacle that will get in your way?

If not, stop now!

You will never have the emotional strength to crash you through the invetiable HUGE obstacles that will get in the way of you and (say) $7 million: you won’t get rich and you will ‘die’ trying …

But, If so … great … you have the WHY!!!

2. The, you should  think about HOW MUCH in today’s income (as if you did it today) you will need to live the life that gives you your WHY (think about costs like travel, housing, cars, donations, etc.); also, decide if you need to quit work entirely to do it … the difference is how much PASSIVE INCOME that you need.

Remember: even if you do decide that you can still work, you may need to rerun these numbers for when you stop work entirely as well … sort of a pre-quit and post-quit plan.

3. Think about WHEN you need this to all happen by (not want it to happen by, NEED it to happen by); DOUBLE the amount of income that you calculated in Step 2. for every 20 years until the WHEN (you can prorate, eg add 50% for 10 years and so on … it wll be close enough).

Multiply by 20, 25 or 40 depening on how conservative you are and how much of a buffer you need (remember, once you stop ‘earning’, what you have in savings and investments has to last your whole life, therefore, I use 40 .. perhaps, excessively conservative) … that’s your Number.

3. Oh shit?

Great!

Now, you have the WHY that leads to the WHEREFORE that leads to the MONEY  …

… and, you just may get there 10 or 20 years before I did

What the Quality of Life Index means to you …

First LIVE show aired last night … thanks to all of those who joined us (!) … a few technical glitches … the host wasn’t exactly Jay Leno [I don't have as many cars as Jay, either] … some great question and fantastic chatting. Same time next week, all?

Now, for today’s post …

Today, I am reviewing – and adding to – an important concept recently introduced by mymoneyblog … a way of comparing wealth without resorting to meaningless concepts like Net Worth.

It’s a ratio that mymoneyblog has dubbed the Financial Freedom Ratio:

If someone tells you that they have a net worth of $1,000,000, you might be impressed. But what if they spent $150,000 per year? If they stopped working, the money wouldn’t last very long. However, if they only spent $15,000 per year, they might already be set for life. In other words, your income doesn’t matter. Your expenses do. It may be assumed that the two are related, but that is not necessarily true. We all have the power to disconnect the two.

I’m sure somebody somewhere has already coined this term, but until told otherwise I will call it the Financial Freedom Ratio (FFR):

By liquid, I simply mean you can sell it for cash while not affecting your expenses. (Don’t count your car if you need it for work).

I like the FFR because it is a way to compare two people who may be on different financial paths; I mean, who is better off?

The doctor who earns $250k per year (net) but spends $260k a year on mortgages, cars, vacations?

OR

The veterinarian who earns $150k per year (net) but spends $110K and has paid off their house?

But, there is a problem, as mymoneyblog also points out:

For example, if you had $200,000 but only spent $20,000 per year you would have the FFR value of 10 as someone with $1,000,000 but spent $100,000 per year. This also calls into focus how important spending patterns are when talking about financial freedom.

You see, Ratios are dimensionless … they lose scale. Therefore, with the FFR a ‘hobo’ COULD conceivably have a better FFR than a multimillionaire!

For example: my FFR is 40 (purely based upon cash in the bank) – but, that doesn’t mean anything to you, until I also tell you one of the Scaling Numbers (either ‘liquid net worth’ OR ‘annual spending’ will do).

If we want to keep these numbers secret (the great benefit of the FFR), then we simply need to add some sort of Quality of Life Index:

As long as the QLI is greater than 1, then I agree that the FFR is a great way to share ‘financial positions’ WITHOUT disclosing how much we actually have in the bank!

It is also a great way to determine if your are on track to your ideal retirement, rather than just settling for the personal finance blogger’s curse: you will save, and save, and save until you can retire on your current paltry salary …

… the QLI forces you to assess what you really need to be able to spend in retirement and then it, together with the FFR, doesn’t let you retire until you can get there!

The only problem?

It doesn’t tell you how to do it! So, you tell me … how will you do it??? 

What does it mean to be wealthy?

7million7years live tomorrow (!) and 7million7years in the press:

Two of my favorite sites are TickerHound (the Investment Q&A Community) and the Tycoon Report (Daily Investing Newsletter); and, they’re both free! 

Also, 7million7years got two mentions when these sites got together here :)

Now for today’s post …

Trent at the Simple Dollar rekindled this debate  by asking “How Much Money Is ‘Walk Away From It All’ Money?”

I’ll let you read Trent’s post yourself, but, what often interests me most are some of the questions and comments left by readers to my posts and those on other blogs.

For example, I am often asked what my definition of wealth is; I can tell you what it ISN’T:

I DON’T like the simple numerical definitions of wealth that researchers and academics like to trot out e.g. $170,000 income per year; or $1,000,000 in assets not including primary residence; or even the often quoted Millionaire Next Door formula:

Multiply your age times your realized pretax annual household income from all sources except inheritances. Divide by ten. This, less any inherited wealth, is what your net worth should be.

To me, these are just meaningless numbers.

Then there are the passive-income-covers-current-income approaches to wealth [AJC: you may recall that Robert Kiyosaki  claimed $100k p.a. passive income as = wealth for him in Rich Dad, Poor Dad]; “KC” left this example in her comment to Trent’s post:

I’ve always said “wealthy” people are folks who don’t have to work and can live off their savings, pension, social security check, dividends, and any other non-work related payments. That is an age dependant term. My 90 year old grandmother is wealthy by those standards – but I’d hardly call her style of living wealthy – but she is able to live comfortably off her savings cause her budget is so small – no car, paid for house, minimal food & utility needs.

I disagree with this definition of wealth, because of exactly that scenario: the ‘cash poor’ person who accepts a certain level of lifestyle because that is what they can afford. They have one benefit: they can maintain this lifestyle WITHOUT WORKING therefore some would consider them wealthy. But, to me, they are still just getting by …

… which is interesting, because KC then when on to show the contrast:

My in-laws are wealthy – they both have pensions and health benefits, but retired early (55′ish) due to a sizable inheritance and wisely saving money when they were younger despite knowing they’d come into an inheritance. I would describe their lifestyle as wealthy – European travel, upscale cars, very nice paid-for home.

 This lifestyle has all the trappings of wealth … but, to me ‘trappings’ do NOT equal wealth. So, KC what would I consider wealthy?

Simple, it’s the definition that you provided, with an additional – but critical- twist:

It’s having the regular passive income to cover your ideal lifestyle not just your current lifestyle!

Your ideal lifestyle is the one that you measure by what you DO not what you HAVE …

… the DO part is about legacy: what, if anything, do you want to be remembered for?

The financial part of this is then simple. Just ask yourself: how much will it COST (time and/or money) and by WHEN do you need it?

When KC did the numbers she came up with the following:

But for me (a 35 yr old) to be wealthy by the no work standard would easily take 3 million. I arrived at that number by saying what amount times 8% would allow me to maintain my lifestyle on the principal generated? I chose $3 million cause in a few years I’d need that extra money due to inflation. At $3 million I could very easily pay off my home and live VERY comfortably off the 8% interest. That would make me and my husband independently wealthy. Oh well, I’m only about 2.8 million away from my goal – sigh…

Firstly, good on KC for ‘getting’ that you need a hell of a lot more than $3,000,000 AND for figuring inflation into the equation. But, here are some things that she needs to correct:

1. Firstly, she needs to work out her annual passive income requirements - it looks like she’s counting on $3 Million LESS ‘inflation allowance’ LESS Paying off current home.

2. I’m guessing that amounts to something like $150,000 a year that she’s aiming at – a healthy income, but nowhere near ‘reasonably rich’ (that would take about $350,000 – $500,000 a year income: big house, First Class flights, 5 Star Hotels, a couple of fancy cars, private schools). But, let’s assume that she has modest retirement spending requirements: she doesn’t say WHY she needs it, or HOW much … but, we do know that she needs to replace 100% of her time with money as she doesn’t intend to work at all.

3. Before retirement, KC may be able to count on a 12%+ annual compound return (over a 20 – 30 year period) on her ACTIVE investments (forget 401k’s, managed funds, index funds, etc. … to get 12+% she’ll need real-estate and direct investments in stocks), but in retirement, she will want to wind that back to, say 8% on her PASSIVE investments (now she can buy those Index Funds, if she likes).

Why 8%: because that’s the largest return that the stock market has ’guaranteed’ over any 30 year period, in the last 100 years (the figure drops to just 4% over any 20 year period, and 0% over any 10 year period). And, then we really should deduct mutual fund and middle-man fees …

4. But, to counter for inflation and up/down market swings, KC will need to wind back her withdrawals to somewhere between 2.5% and 5% of her portfolio … 8% is right out of the question! Why? You have to reinvest at least the expected amount of inflation; KC will need a payrise if she wants to keep up with rising prices …

5. That means somewhere between $3 Mill. and $6 Mill. is the ‘Number’ for KC, or she’ll have to be content with taking ‘just’ $75,000 a year in retirement (at least, it will be indexed for inflation) … just remember, if she takes 20 years to get to that $3 Mill. it will be just like retiring on $35,000 a year today. Whilst $75k seems like a lot to most, it ain’t ‘rich’.

Maybe KC was a little optimistic in saying: “At $3 million I could very easily pay off my home and live VERY comfortably off the 8% interest”?

Do you need to shift your financial goalposts a little, as well?

The optimism of the young …

When you are just starting your working career – or perhaps you are still studying for your career – it can be hard to think of anything more exciting and fun than working at a job that you love.

So, when I talk about retirement – as I do from time to time – I can imagine that a large chunk of my audience is looking for the ‘close window’ button?

Well, don’t!

[AJC: Also, keep reading this particular post even if you AREN'T young ... I have included a lot of back-links, because I want you to review some of the ground that we have covered so far, with this blog .. the idea of Future Vision is THAT important to your financial success!]

Recently, I suggested that most people fail financially, not because their dreams are too big, but because their dreams are TOO SMALL!

Now, this seems counter-intuitive, therefore some of the comments were interesting … the one that I felt expressed the counterpoint the best was from Alex, who said:

I don’t plan on quitting working anytime soon. My “retirement” is to retire from working 9-5 and work for myself. I wouldn’t call that work since I know I will enjoy it, if not, I can always pick a new thing to work on. Life is simple and fun if you have more choices right?

I responded:

It’s my thesis that one day working will no longer be fun, for any of us … if you agree that it’s possible that you will one day feel the same way, then it’s your job NOW to decide WHEN that will be, WHAT you’ll be doing instead of working, and HOW MUCH it will cost to do it – and, if you’re no longer earning money, WHERE will it come from?

The younger that you are when you get this, the more chance that you have of either:

1. Achieving a larger goal, given enough time, than your friends and peers, or

2. Achieving a more modest goal, but much earlier than your friends or peers.

Simply applying Making Money 101 principles as outlined in this blog will, given enough time, compound your savings to a large’ish sum. Not anywhere near large enough for me – but, that’s another story - if that provides enough for you … great … you’ll have a reasonably stress free (but, long-working) life.

But, if you aspire to an unconventionally wealthy and rewarding lifestyle, where you have replaced work with even more rewarding activities, while you are still young enough to enjoy them (e.g. 29, 39, or – hope YOU don’t need to wait THIS long – 49 years old!) then you will need to sit down and dream your large dreams NOW …

… then wake up, splash some cold water on your face and get straight to work applying my Making Money 201 principles!

If you do, you will soon be keeping your very large nest-egg safe with my Making Money 301 principles – and, at a much earlier age than me or most others.

I’m 49 y.o. – officially retired – and I think that’s WAY TOO OLD!

So will you, if you just sit back and wait because you are still young, and still excited about your work or your business or your whatever … if you follow my advice, these will still be your fun and exciting means to a much more valuable end, so …

… start now!

AJC.

PS If you are a ‘young adult’, Ryan at Bounteo has a great series specifically focussed on investing for young adults … why don’t you check it out, and let me know what you think?

What's the probability that you'll even read this post?

Well, if we look at all the billions of people on this planet [AJC: is it 6 billion or 8 billion now ... damn, I lost count] …  the chances are minuscule.

If we take all the people who use the Internet daily … still microscopic.

If we take all the people who read Personal Finance blog … not much chance.

If we pick all people who read the self-prophesying headline to this post …. bloody great! You see, it WAS a trick question of sorts …

… all to lead me on to the subject of Probability … as in “it’s probable that your eyes will glaze over just about now, and you’ll click back to Pamela Anderson’s home page” … brought to my attention by a recent post from an excellent blog by All Financial Matters, appropriately titled Probability 101.

Even if you hated math [AJC: in other countries, known as: maths] and statistics, stick with me past this excerpt:

I’m in the process of reading Peter Bevelin’s awesome book, Seeking Wisdom – From Darwin to Munger (Not an Affiliate Link). I HIGHLY recommend this book for anyone interested in investing and behavioral finance. As boring as that sounds, this book is a page-turner. One of the sections of the book that I found most interesting was this illustration of probability on page 151:

A lottery has 100 tickets. Each ticket costs $10. The cash prize is $500. Is it worthwhile for Mary to buy a lottery ticket?

The expected value of this game is the probability of winning (1 in 100) multiplied with the prize ($500) less the probability of losing (99 our of 100) multiplied with the cost of playing ($10). For each outcome we take the probability and multiply the consequence (a reward or a cost) and then add the figures. This means that Mary’s expected value of buying a lottery ticket is a loss of about $5 (0.01 × $500 – 0.99 × $10).

The first comment that I would make is that whilst you need to understand the basics of a ‘good decision’ against a ‘bad decision’ in probability/statistical terms, simply running your eye over the key line “A lottery has 100 tickets. Each ticket costs $10. The cash prize is $500“  should do the trick:

If you bought all 100 tickets, at $10 each, you would spend $1,000. But you would only win the cash prize of $500 … are YOU smarter than a 3rd Grader?

But, as one of the comments on that post pointed, out not all decision that SEEM to be mathematical ARE simply mathematical:

Unfortunately, probability doesn’t always translate directly into real-life situations.

Let’s take your example of the lottery, except we’ll change things up a little.

Mary is 50 years old and approaching retirement. She’s been financially savvy for her entire life and has accumulated $1M in cash.

Donald Trump decides to hold a lottery for only Mary. One ticket costs $1M, and she has a 50% chance of winning $10M.
If you looked at just probability, her EV is -(0.5 x $1M) + (0.5 X $10M), or +$4.5M. Does that mean she should buy the ticket? Obviously, no.

I think what this comment is saying is that EVEN THOUGH you have a 50/50 chance of winning 10 times your money, you shouldn’t invest your entire life savings into it … because you have an equal chance of ending up flat broke!

The concept is good, but I take issue with the “obviously no” bit …

The numbers in this example are ridiculously skewed for most people, so I tried to give some ‘closer to home’ examples in my post centred on that popular game show, Deal or No Deal.

It all boils down to this:

When a decision is potentially Life Changing … the numbers count less … the possible result counts more.

In practice:

1. You should understand basic probability because it is so important in life,

BUT

2. You should first make the Life Decision then look at the odds …

Deal or No Deal?!

Retirement sucks!

I officially ‘retired’ in April … which is nice for one reason and one reason only (actually, two … second one below): I get to brag for the rest of my life that “I retired before 50 … nyaa…nyaa!”

Now, if that sounds a little vapid, it is … but, I have vapid, dumb, vain, stubborn, and a lot of other great characteristics in me.

But, what keeps me real are equally stupid things like: I didn’t meet my goal of my first million by 30 (I missed by 10 years, or so).

And, even if I did retire by 30, I can tell you unequivocably that retirement sucks … because life sucks!

To prove my point, here’s how I spent just one of my first days in ‘retirement’:

- My wife has been sick with bronchitis this week … in fact, she waited 15 years, until the very first day of my retirement, to get this sick;

- I found out that somebody just scammed one of my overseas businesses for circa $20k … in fact, they waited 15 years, until the very first day of my retirement, to scam me for this much;

- One of my longest-serving employees was terminated from the business that I just left … in fact, they waited 15 years, until the very first day of my retirement, to get rid of this guy;

- Some guy in a Lexus just did his best to kill me; a tennis ‘pro’ actually went out of his way to be rude to me; need I go on?

… and, all of that in one day!

 I guess retirement starts next week

The point: ‘life’ – for all its good and bad – goes on … and, for those of you just waiting for that perfect moment when [insert favorite when here: when I get $1 million; when I retire; when I get married/divorced/pregnant; when my life will be just perfect] …

… you need to heed my words: I have just had the brutal awakening so that you don’t have to.

Life doesn’t start or stop when something happens … life is … because life is always happening.

I think that this little paragraph from (from “Five Great Moments of Personal Finance”  in an article by Business columnist Scott Burns of the Dallas Morning News) summarizes it quite nicely:

Our easy problems involve money. They may be terrifying, but there is always a solution. Our big problems are the ones that can’t be solved with money. They are the ones that make us cry in the night and pray for relief. The marriage that doesn’t work. The illness that can’t be cured. The child who is afflicted. The friend who won’t be helped. If you are an adult and still think money problems are real problems, you have led a charmed life. Be grateful.

Despite appearances, I was actually quite well-prepared for this week … you see I really didn’t expect my life to become perfect when I retired / made $7 million / whenever …

… my life, for all of its ups and downs was (and is) already perfect.

Then, why did I aim for so much money, so soon?

Simply to give me the freedom and credibility to do what I am doing now, and what the coming months and years will unveil … and, it all begins with writing this little blog.

But, don’t wait to see how my life pans out before living yours … just 3.5 minutes a day is all the contribution to your life that I need to make – the other 1435.5 minutes are all yours!