Safe as houses?

Posted on October 8, 2009 by Adrian

Well, I did ask for it, and the first cab off the rank for the ‘diss Adrian party’ is Dan who thinks that one of my favorite posts – Contrary to Popular Opinion, Paying Off Your Mortgage Is The Dumbest Move You Can Make – is ‘ridiculous’. Seriously, thanks for opening up an important new discussion with this comment, Dan:

This is ridiculous. The author apparently believes he is untouchable and will never lose his job, get sick, or die.

You can do all the complex math you want, but the simple fact of the matter is that Risk is the biggest variable, and I don’t see it show up in your equation once.

Don’t be stupid America, and dont prescribe to a system that encourages you to continue owing people money long after you need to.

Pay off your house, free up some income, then pay off your credit cards, pay off your car, and be a happier, less stressed individual.

Hmmm …. paying off your mortgage as a ‘risk management tool’?

Before we even consider why anybody in their right mind would pay off a (say) 8% mortgage before paying off a (say) 19% credit card or car loan, let’s review the substance of my “don’t pay down your mortgage early” argument:

Look at everything that you own as a business: if it’s your own home, separate the ownership of the property in your mind from it’s use …

… for example, even if it’s your own home, treat yourself as your own tenant and figure the rent that you would otherwise had to pay when doing the sums.

Then evaluate the investment against any other investment or ‘business’ …

… but, if you’re still trying to get rich(er) quick(er)?

If you own a home, don’t pay it off … use the upside to help you buy more and more of these wonderful, one-of-a-kind, almost-too-good-to-be-true ’businesses’ …

If you have other sources of income (businesses, investments) don’t spend it or reinvest all of it … use some of the spare cash to help you buy more and more of these wonderful, one-of-a-kind, almost-too-good-to-be-true ’businesses’ …

That’s my advice to you, but only take it if you want to be rich!

But, Dan says that the ‘math’ matters not, you should consider what happens if you “lose [your] job, get sick, or die”. Well, what happens?

If you have paid out your mortgage, your money is locked in the safest bank vault imaginable … all you have to do it sell the home to access the cash. Just pray that the market is an up market and not a down market, when these events outside of your control force you to sell. Or, would YOU prefer to choose the timing? Hmmm …

Of course, you could just borrow some money against the house; but then, aren’t you now putting yourself in EXACTLY the financial situation that Dan wants you to avoid: i.e. “owing people money long after you need to”?

And, even if you still do want to use your Zero Mortgage Bank, what are the chances of the bank actually lending you (or your survivors) any money when you are jobless, sick, or dead?

Oh, and let’s say that you do happen to be unfortunate enough to “lose [your] job, get sick, or die” while you are still in the 10-15 year period when you are well ahead of the 30-year payment curve, but haven’t paid off the mortgage in full, yet? How easy will it be to refinance, or even convince your bank to hold payments for you? Even if you THINK they will, you had better be certain 😉

What do you reckon? Dan’s on the right track? C’mon, be honest … would you feel safer paying off your mortgage early, or letting it ride?

Is a fan?

Posted on September 17, 2009 by Adrian

Mike – the one who actually seems to like my blog – makes a good point in response to the other Mike, who doesn’t:

I’ve never taken out a loan from a bank for my personal finances. Bought every car 100% cash, and bought my first home (condo) 100% cash back in 2005…

On the businesses I’ve run there have been bank loans but I like to get things to where cash flow is coming in and no need to take out a loan.

Unless your business is very capital intensive I’d argue that investment money should come from cash flow and not bank loans. Granted, if you want to expand quickly you need access to capital but who faces this in today’s market?

Now, I’ve been recently told that the true meaning of the word ‘ambivalence’ isn’t a lack of care, but that you care equally strongly about two or more choices; therefore, I can claim that I am ambivalent about bank debt … let me explain by sharing my response to Mike:

1. I have a finance company that uses 90% borrowed money (it has to!),

2. I happily borrow 65%+ for my commercial property purchases,

3. I have zero debt on my houses ($6m+ between them).

So, I can make an argument for anywhere between 0% and 100% leverage (e.g. bank funding)

… and, I forgot to mention to Mike that my residential properties are funded 75%+.

Why don’t I pay down the properties now that I have the cash?

Well, if I was truly in Making Money 301 (wealth preservation) I probably would or should, but I have thrown myself back in to Making Money 201 (wealth creation) by making the property development site purchases that I mentioned in this post, last week. If I didn’t preserve my cash (i.e. by NOT paying down debt), then there’s little chance that I could complete these developments.

How to fund your business expansion …

Posted on September 14, 2009 by Adrian

Profit-And-Loss Take Mike’s point about raising business capital, from this recent post:

Investment money [for your business] should come from cash flow and not bank loans

I happen to agree, mainly because business funding is hard to come by and can be very expensive …

… when, the BEST place to find the capital to run and grow your business is from the gap between:

a. Your Sales, and

b. Your Costs.

This is nominally called PROFIT, but that is dangerous because it implies that you can spend it.

Remember my friend’s friend who had a business making $3 million a year? Well:

1. He gave Uncle Sam one third, and

2. He saved one third, and

3. He spent one third.

Which sounded totally logical until I realized that his ‘cost of living’ was $1 million per year and the Rule of 20 says that he would need at least $20 million in passive investments to justify anywhere near that sort of spending level!

But, a business generating $3 million in earnings a year – as we now know – is usually worth 3 to 5 times it’s annual earnings AFTER TAX, which means his business is ‘only’ worth $6 million to $10 million … a huge amount, but nowhere near enough to justify blowing $1 million a year.

Then there’s still those savings, which (at 10% return) would generate the ‘missing’ $10 million to $14 million (i.e. to reach his $20 mill. Number) in, say, 8 to 10 years (of course, by then he needs $30 million because of inflation, which would delay things by another couple of years or so).

So, what to do with those profits?

1. Pay Uncle Sam one third, and

2. Save one third, and

3. Double the remaining third; multiply it by 3 to 5; then, divide the answer by 20 … and spend that [AJC: enjoy!], and

4. Add the remainder to 2.

Now, what to do with 4. (i.e. the savings generated by 3. plus 2.)?

Well, I would use it to:

a. expand the business, and

b. invest outside of the business

… probably in roughly equal measure – with any excess amounts (i.e. that the business doesn’t need in the foreseeable future) also moved into ‘passive investments’ outside of the business.

If you do this, Mike, you will:

i) Live reasonably safely and well, and

ii) Build your Perpetual Money Machine, and

ii) Probably won’t need the bank to fund your (international?) expansion

… at least, that’s how it all worked out for me 🙂

What’s behind Door Number 2?

Posted on September 10, 2009 by Adrian

There’s nothing wrong with being debt free …

… which seems like I am flipping, when I should be flopping, about debt. Until you realize that I can just as equally claim that there’s nothing wrong with being in debt, either.

You see, it depends.

In fact, what I contend is that the majority of my readers NEED to be in debt … but, that’s not the same as advocating debt for debt’s sake.

Confused?

Let me explain by introducing you to a new reader, Lee, who asks:

I’ve been reading about this 20% rule and it does make sense, but after what happened with real estate over the past 18 months do you still think this is a good approach? Right now, I have about 55% equity in my home. To get my home to only be 20% of my networth I would need to refinance it to 80% LTV. I have a pretty low rate (4.625%) and only have 9 years 8 months left on my mortgage. Would you still recommend someone in my situation refinancing?

After a lot of confusing to’ing and fro’ing [AJC: you can go pack to that post and read all of the comments … in fact. I would encourage it, because this is one of my Top 3 most widely read posts], I asked Lee what I think are the critical questions:

1. Do you have a Date in mind, when you REALLY want (nay, NEED) to stop working so that you finally have time to live your Life’s Purpose?

2. Do you have a Number in mind, that represents how much you need in your nest egg (be that the bank, ‘passive’ investments, your house – although, you may need to think how you plan to access those funds to live from – etc.)?

If not, I suggest that’s your first task: think about your Number and Date. Already (or just) got them?! Good … now;

3. Will your current financial plans and strategies get you to your Number by your Date?

To which Lee responded:

As far as retiring by no later than 55, yes my current path will easily provide for that. If I choose to the pursue the passion I mentioned earlier, then that would impact the amount of money I would need in the short term, but would not affect my long term retirement goals.

If your current financial strategy is working for you – i.e. in that you are happy with your current work and financial arrangement, and believe that you can achieve your Number by your Date – why would you even think about changing anything, Lee?!

So, let me go back and clear up the confusion about debt for my other readers:

– If you can achieve your Number by your Date WITHOUT the use of debt then PLEASE do so,

– Otherwise, what choice do you have but the wise application of debt?

… I just happen to believe that for the vast majority of my readers, Door # 2 (‘wise application of debt’) is the one that holds their prize 🙂

I’ve been out shopping!

Posted on September 9, 2009 by Adrian

high rise Yes, I have been out shopping …

… last week I bought not one, but two, commercial properties:

– One is a warehouse/showroom that needs extensive renovation, and

– The other is a quadraplex (four apartments on one title/deed).

The first one (the warehouse) is one of those properties that you drive past for years and years and think to yourself: “Wouldn’t it be great to own that property … one day?”

Well, I happened to drive past ‘one day’ and a For Sale sign was out front!

Naturally, I immediately called the real estate agent listed and commenced negotiations … this is one of the advantages of having money 😉

He sent me a brochure showing the property listed at $1.2 million … the negotiations dragged on for a while so I asked a friend of mine who specializes in commercial real estate to step in and he promptly closed the deal for me …

… at $1.287 million!

Great negotiator, huh?

As it happens, I was not too upset about the price, because something strange happened between the time of first looking at the property and the time of signing the contract (which I did last week):

The property is basically an under-loved property on one of the main boulevards leading into the downtown area … not a hip area by a long-shot but a good area nonetheless (close to a railway station, shops, cafes, and with fantastic main street exposure) … all-in-all, exactly what I was looking for.

My plan WAS to simply rehab it: render the horrible yellow/orange bricks (i.e. cover then with concrete mixture to make a smooth ‘concrete look’ that can be painted) and put in large, modern aluminum windows, a new roof, and fit out a new interior (probably $500k all up) then rent it out, to give myself a nice, steady 7% return with even nicer depreciation benefits (over all of the renovations) for the first 5 years.

But, my architect found something interesting: you see this property sits right next to an office tower with 8 floors, which was built over 20 years ago – this building is the ONLY building higher than 2 or 3 floors for miles in either direction …

… until now. My architect found out that the council is suddenly willing to rezone three or four properties around that tall building to allow building to the same height as that relatively tall building next door … my building included!

So now, I am sitting on one the the very few properties that may allow us to build 50 or so condo’s plus some office space, all in an up and coming neighborhood that will have scarcity of such condo’s because that’s all the council will allow!

Needless to say that I am going to get plans drawn up and council permits, then I will decide whether to:

a. sell the property to a developer with plans and permits, which I am sure will net me $1 million+ profit in a mere year or so, or

b. do the development myself.

Next week, I will run you through the numbers …

Not a fan?

Posted on September 7, 2009 by Adrian

GREEDY-BANK It’s fairly safe to say that Mike is NOT a fan:

I happened to stumble on this site doing some research on debt free. No wonder I’ve never heard of this site or even the radio show apparently associated with it. Anyone who thinks that living debt free is the wrong thing to do needs to have their head examined. That’s like saying Ohh we shouldnt live debt free we’re on the planet to make banks rich on our hard earned money. Nice mentality you got there. It just doesn’t hold any water. The question you should be asking yourself is would you rather live be constantly paying out your hard earned cash to banks making money off you not paying for your own assets or should you own your assets outright and control a greater portion of your hard earned cash? The choice IS obvious.

But, what of Mike’s aversion to paying the banks interest?

I look at banks a little differently to those like Mike who are averse to paying their interest, fees and charges …

… sure, I don’t like how they can mount up. And, I don’t like how the banks can make ‘super profits’ in good times and seem to get away with it. And, I don’t like those snooty tellers who look over their glasses at you, when you want to make a withdrawal, like they’re doing you some sort of favor by letting you have your money 😉

But, I can put that aside, when I realize that here is a partner who is willing to put up some – or even most (if it’s a real-estate transaction) of the capital to fund my latest entrepreneurial or investment endeavor, yet they want virtually no say in how I manage that business / investment once they have put their money in … and, I even get virtually 100% control over all of the daily management decisions and even, pretty much make the ‘sell’ decision on my own.

And, all they want is a few % per year return on the money that they put in … no share of the speculative upside!

Where else can you find a partner like that?

So, Mike, I ask you: what’s your objective?

– To get rich(er) quick(er)?

– Or is it to avoid putting any of your money into somebody else’s pocket?

I don’t mind which path you choose, as long as it gets you to your financial objective i.e. Your Number by Your Date …

… if not, you will do well in life – not just your financial life – to stop obsessing about what the other guy might be getting out of the deal, and start obsessing about what you might be getting out of that same deal 🙂

I wonder what our readers think? Tell us about your good/bad experiences with bank funding …

The Instant IPO

Posted on September 3, 2009 by Adrian

Money Angel Recently, I pointed all of the difficulties of the Entrepreneur’s Holy Grail – the IPO [cue angels] …

… for all these reasons – and more – I didn’t IPO my businesses … but, I found something almost as good:

7million7years Patented Instant IPO

It works like this:

Step 1

Make sure that your company is profitable and has a reasonable track record of growing profits. This should value your company at 3 to 5 times earnings (i.e. annual net profit after tax)

Step 2

Find a Public Company in a related industry that is trading at least 12+ times its earnings after tax – the more the better, for you!

Step 3

Sell your company to that company and negotiate a mutually agreeable split of the difference between your ‘private value’ and their ‘public value’!

Basically, what you are doing is using the public company’s stock to “IPO” your own company:

You see, when you are on the outside, your company is worth only 3 to 5 times its profit to a buyer, but as soon as the other company buys you and ‘absorbs’ your profit into their profit stream, that profit is suddenly (well, after a relatively short ‘disruption’ period where the market has to get used to the sudden change in profitability of the public company) ‘worth’ 12+ times itself.

[Hint: The smaller you are relative to the size of the acquiring company the smaller the disruption … on the other hand, the smaller you are, the less attractive your cashflow may be to them, so it helps if you also have some ‘secret sauce’ – i.e. Intellectual Property – to make you look that much more attractive to the ‘big end of town’]

The company that has acquired you has just made a huge windfall by using the difference between how private companies are valued and how they – the public company – are valued to their advantage … in fact, there are plenty of public companies that do this as a matter of course. Sometimes, it even need only be only an ideal coincidence that your company actually adds any other business synergy to theirs!

But, when you sell to them, you will find – if you are a smart negotiator – that they have gone to all the expense and trouble of the IPO process for you 🙂

Let’s look at an example: say that your company produces $1,000,000 net profit each year, and you have found a likely candidate public company. You have evaluated the market and believe that your business would sell for $4 million in the private sale market.

But, you realize that your widgets complement those of Acme Widgets Inc. very nicely. Acme’s stock is currently trading at a P/E of 12.

You approach the CEO of Acme Widgets Inc. [AJC: actually, if you’re VERY smart, you’ll engineer it so that he approaches YOU 😉 ], but play reasonably ‘hard to get’.

The CEO realizes that:

a) Your widgets do indeed fill a hole in his product range that will cost his capital (and, short term profits) to fill in house, and

b) Your $1 mill. profit adds $12 Mill. to his company’s value (i.e. his stock price will eventually go up by about $12 mill. when the value of all the stock out there is totaled), and

c) He happens to hold a nice bundle of stock and options set to vest in 18 months or so.

So, what is worth $4 million to you, is worth $12 million to him … how much would you sell for?

The Myth of the Million Dollar Retirement Goal …

Posted on August 27, 2009 by Adrian

A couple of weeks ago, I posed the question: Will a million dollars be enough when I retire?

There was much discussion that makes it clear that you must also ask: WHEN do you want to retire?

You see, 4% inflation (say) eats away at your money, such that if you were to retire in 20 years – which is when you hope to get your $1 Million bill – it’s only ‘worth’ $500,000.

And, inflation continues even after you retire, which then means that you probably need to earn at least 9% on your Million Dollar Bill (4% to ‘cover inflation’ and 5% to spend) … this still leaves you only the equivalent of $25k today to live from (assuming that you want your $25k ‘retirement salary’ to at least keep up with inflation for as long as you need an income).

Assuming that this makes sense, let’s see how practical this Million Dollar Retirement Goal really is:

There are two schools of thought:

– There are those who believe that you should aim to approximate your pre-retirement salary in retirement, and

– There are those who don’t.

Now, I am in the second group – as are most people who have tried the same exercises that our 7 Millionaires … In Training! tried.

For example, my salary throughout almost all (bar the last 3 years) of my working life was less than $50k – $100k (incl. fringe benefits) and my wife had to keep working, BUT that was a purposeful strategy designed to get me to a retirement in just 5 years (instead of the notional 20 years) i.e. at 49 y.o. on the equivalent of $250k+ a year income for life (indexed for inflation) post-retirement.

But, this post is aimed at those new readers who are still in the first group … they, too, fall into two (sub)groups:

– Those who believe that they need at least 100% to 125% of their final salary in retirement (because, they say, you spend more in retirement due to travel, leisure activities, and escalating health care costs as you age, etc.) , and

– Those who believe that they need only 75% to 99% of their final salary in retirement (because, as these other ‘experts’ say, you need less in retirement as your children are grown up and educated, weddings are already paid for, house is paid off or downsized, etc.).

… at least, that’s how the personal finance columnists seem to be split.

So, in our example from the last post, we work backwards:

Somebody who aims to retire with $1 Million in 20 years time is really saying that they want to live off an annual income of roughly $50k in retirement (that WE now know is only ‘worth’ $25k a year), which means that their final salary will probably also be $50k (+/- 25% depending on which financial ‘guru’ they happen to follow).

Now, if you follow $50k in 20 years time all the way back to today, that person is probably earning $25k today (i.e. assuming that they earn CPI salary increases for the next 20 years) …

… so, now we can work forwards again:

If you have a starting salary (i.e. today) of $25k and aim to retire with $1 million in the bank in 20 years, you will need to set aside about 45% of your gross salary AND earn 9% on your money (after fees and taxes) AND have a house that you can free up at least $250k from when you do retire (e.g. by downsizing or moving into a very cheap rental).

Of course, if you can save 45% of your salary for 20 years, then you must be in the Salary-LESS-45%-In-Retirement camp, which is another story altogether 😉

So, it seems to me that getting to $1 mill. in 20 years for somebody on a salary of $25k is all bar impossible … and, even if you do scrimp, save, and ‘frugal’ your way there, you have only made it to the ‘lofty heights’ of living off about twice the poverty line, for a two-member household:

2008 HHS 100% Poverty Guidelines

Members of household————- 48 Contiguous States———–Alaska————–Hawaii

1———————————$10,400 ———————–$13,000————– $11,960
2———————————-$14,000 ———————–$17,500—————–$16,100
3———————————$17,600 ———————-$22,000——————$20,240
4——————————-$21,200————————–$26,500——————-$24,380

For each additional person, add—–3,600———————4,500————————-4,140

SOURCE: Federal Register, Vol. 73, No. 15, January 23, 2008, pp. 3971–3972

So, I think the Million Dollar Retirement Goal really is a myth – or, at least a very low bar to aim for – how about you?

Instant Real-Estate Valuation Tool!

Posted on August 20, 2009 by Adrian

fear1 Today, I want to share one of my secret weapons for purchasing real-estate: it absolutely kills paralysis by analysis, and it works for all type of real-estate, including residential and commercial.

But, I warn you in advance, you won’t like it!

You’ll think it’s risky, you’ll think it’s stupid … then you’ll find out that I’ve actually used this method three times … well, four times … and, each time it’s made me more money than I could ever have dreamed of.

Let’s think about the biggest problem in real-estate: knowing how much to pay.

So, what are the solutions:

1. You ask a realtor – if you can trust them

2. You ask a friend – but, are they the experts

3. You ask (actually, pay) an appraiser

4. You put in the ‘hard yards’ (missing many potential bargains as you simply stand by taking notes) learning about real-estate until YOU are the expert.

Of all of these, 4. is the one that I would recommend …

… if I did it, but I’m way too lazy 😉

Instead, I use 7million7years Patented Real-Estate Valuation Tool

Here’s how it works:

I find a property that somebody else wants to buy … somebody who is already an expert in that specific property … somebody who has: measured the place, gone to council, hired an appraiser, looked at 1,000 identical houses in the same areas … in short, somebody who has made themselves an expert in this type of property, and has narrowed down his search to this one property that I also happen to be interested in …

… and, I make sure that I offer just a little bit more for the property than he does. Simple!

Does this work? Sure … I’ve done this on my own home, an investment condo, a quadraplex, and an office.

Is this the cheapest way to buy such properties? Of course not; by definition, I’m always paying (at least a little) more.

Can it make money? Absolutely … I’ve probably made at least $2 million profit doing exactly this.

… and, the best part is that I’d probably still be researching my first deal if I didn’t.

Here’s one example of how it worked:

I was driving around and saw a condo for sale … actually, it was up for auction that day. I noticed that the sign was from an ‘out of town’ agent – I love these properties because they usually attract the smallest pool of buyers because the agents don’t really know how to attract the buyers out of their own area.

I went home and grabbed my checkbook and rushed back because I wanted to look at the condo before the onsite auction started: I saw a young guy in coveralls walking around with a tape measure doing a final ‘once over’ … it was obvious that he had been though the place before and was planning to rehab and flip it.

This was perfect: I simply bid against him at the auction until everybody else dropped out and it was just him and me bidding … the difference between us?

He needed to buy at a low enough price to rehab and make a quick buck; since I was buying to hold and rent, I could afford to pay a little more … which is exactly what I did: every time he bid, I bid a little more … eventually, he could bid no more, and my $500 ‘overbid’ was enough to buy the property.

I was surprised that I bought it … but, not as surprised as my wife 😉

But, we still own it … it’s the smallest property in our portfolio, but is still cashflow positive and has appreciated by over $250k.

So, who are these ‘unofficial appraisers’ that you are looking for?

– Home buyers – we bought our first house by attending an auction for a house that we expected to sell for a lot more; we just kept bidding until the only other serious buyer dropped out and we bought it – much to our surprise – far cheaper than we ever expected. We knew it was a good deal, because we knew the other guy had been looking around the area for quite a while

– Developers – I bought my office for $1,000 more than a developer was prepared to pay to buy it for as a ‘tear down’ … so, I figured that I was buying the property at land value and getting a whole building for only $1,000 more. I used the property for my business then sold it (a year or two after I sold the business) for around $1 million profit.

– Owner / builders – as well as the condo, I also applied the same technique to a quadraplex that I eventually bought; this was rehabbed while we were in the USA (my accountant oversaw the project) and I have never even seen the finished product, yet it is cashflow positive and has already appreciated by around $1 million. Again, I only saw this building once: on the day that I paid over $1.25 million for it!

Now, I don’t recommend that you do quite as little ‘due diligence’ as I often do (or, don’t do … as the case may be), but you have to admit that it is the ultimate cure to paralysis by analysis!

Scary, and you won’t find this technique in any book, but it works 😉

My top posts!

Posted on August 19, 2009 by Adrian

These are my ‘best-selling posts’ … what does this say about me? More importantly, what does this say about you???!!!

BTW: I am not unhappy with any of these posts … but, I doubt that many of those who came to my blog via Top Post # 3. have stuck around 😉

7million7years

How to make 7 million in 7 years …

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