When is investing gambling?

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I was browsing a new finance forum the other day and came across a great question from a self-confessed ‘beginner investor’.

He asked:

“Where can I learn how to trade with a few thou for the short term (<3mo) with greater than 20% return. I’ve never invested anything. I know that long term investing seems much easier from what i’ve read ie. value investing with stock screens, but what is another good strategy? I am looking for a strategy, teacher, website, anything to start learning, but with a goal of putting money in the market. I’m not interested in funds or managers.”

That, my friends, is called ‘gambling’ not ‘investing’!

You see, when evaluating ANY so-called ‘investment strategy’ you have to consider the return that you can make against ‘market norms’ …

… which is a very simple way of saying “if I can do it … and I don’t have any SPECIAL INSIDER KNOWLEDGE that makes me SPECIAL … then why isn’t EVERYBODY doing it?”

The answer is, of course, is: it’s simply NOT possible … otherwise EVERYBODY would be doing it, already!

… unless you get extremely lucky (which is why what you want to achieve is called ‘speculating = gambling’).

A friend and I had a similar conversation the other day …

He is becoming a professional speaker and consultant; he has already made a great start by writing and self-publishing a book and already has some paid speaking engagements.

BUT, his target is to earn $200k next year … just from speaking/consulting, as a near-beginner!

So I asked him: “How many corporate executives, with expertise in your specific area [customer service] earn anything close to your $200k target right now?”

He said: “Not many … that’s a BIG corporate salary …”

Next, I asked him: “How many of them could write and speak about customer service?”

He answered: “Probably a lot more than you’d expect, especially if they knew that was $200k on the line …”

“Exactly!” I said, almost jumping out of my chair: “So, why would any of them work for somebody else, if they could simply write a book then earn $200k … with the added benefit of lots of travel, flexible hours, and no boss?”

“Hmmmm” he said, his brain obviously (finally) ticking over: “They wouldn’t!”

Which was exactly the point that I was trying to get across:

It simply CAN’T be DONE, by the average person … otherwise, they would all be doing it!

Of course, there are PLENTY of speakers and consultants earning $200k or way more – as there are plenty of people in all areas of ‘investment’ (stocks, options, currencies, futures, real-estate, business, etc, etc) earning outstanding returns even in a crappy market – but …

… they generally have SPECIAL INSIDER KNOWLEDGE that makes them SPECIAL … or, they work MUCH harder than anybody else and/or they get extremely LUCKY …

So, what would you tell our ‘Beginner Investor’?

I would say, when evaluating any opportunity or even your own investing goals and strategy consider:

1. Are you investing – in which case, you should expect ‘normal’ rates of return over the long haul, or

2. Are you really gambling – in which case, the sky is the limit … but, the ground could equally rush up to meet you …

depending upon how lucky you get.

BOTH have a place in your journey towards $7million in 7 years (or whatever target you set for yourself)  … it’s how I did it …

 

But, always be very clear on when and why you are investing and when and why you are gambling.

 

I’d like to hear your views …

Why does real-estate investing crush your 401k mutual funds?

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You know that you can’t just save your way to a fortune … right?!

So, what to do with that ‘extra’ cash that you manage to scrounge from time to time?

In a previous post , I pointed out that we are at a UNIQUE point in history.

For the FIRST TIME that I can recall BOTH money AND real-estate are cheap!!

If you save up a deposit (AFTER paying of any pesky credit card debt) and plonk it down on a rental property (or even your own house, if you ain’t got one yet) and LOCK IT IN for 30 years, how can you EVER go wrong?

If you do buy to live in it, eventually you will move on – just keep it as a rental FOR EVER.

I don’t know what will happen over the next year or so, but over 30 years it’s a no-brainer …

… your mortgage payments remain flat (you fixed them, remember?) …

… the value of the house doubles every 7 years or so (and, you will take advantage of this ‘spare’ equity, won’t you?) …

… and – here’s the kicker – your rents rise roughly in line with inflation … see how that compounds over 10, 20 or even 30 years to spin off income that will help you stop working!

And when you eventually do retire, the real-estate strategy STILL kicks your 401k’s butt …

This built-in inflation-protection makes real-estate a great adjunct or alternative to so-called safe retirement strategies such as the Grangaard Strategy and Worry-Free Investing (two of the best that I have come across).

Try doing any of that with your 401K or mutual fund!

Do you really care that weekly contributions of $34 could potentially grow to over $76,000 in 20 years?

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I just received a hilarious e-mail in my in-box from Fidelity. It said: Did you know that weekly contributions of $34 could potentially grow to over $76,000 in 20 years?*

*This hypothetical example assumes a participant earns $30,000 every year and defers 6% of his/her weekly pay ($34/week) at the beginning of every week for 20 years to a tax-deferred retirement account earning a 7% annual rate of return compounded weekly.”

Why is that funny? Well, in 20 years, $76,000 won’t even buy you a car!

That’s the problem with these “save your way to $1,000,000” advertisements (and, books) …

… while you certainly should put away at least 10% of your gross income (hopefully, it eventually comes to a lot more than $34 a week!), and

… while you may (and should try to at least) make it all the way to $1,000,000 in the bank (or CD’s or 401K) by the time you retire in 30 or 40 years:

(a) You will probably be too old and tired to enjoy it … hell, I’ve waited to 49 to retire and I already feel too old .. and

(b) $1,000,000 will buy you diddly squat because of a little thing called inflation.

Inflation is the thing that causes a  sixteen ounce loaf of bread to cost $0.19 in 1950 and $2.10 in 2008!

You don’t have to look too far to see this inflation-effect taken to it’s extreme: in Zimbabwe raging inflation is the thing that means even Z$750,000 isn’t enough to buy that $2 loaf of bread!

What does this mean if inflation averages, say, just 3%?

Let’s say that you are 25 years old today, aiming to save $1,000,000 by the time you retire … by the time you reach 65 and cash in your $1,000,000 ‘retirement check’ that would be the same as your grandfather retiring today on just $315,000 savings!

Does that sound like a lot? Let’s see …

$315,000 would give your grandfather just $15,000 a year to live on (allowing for small yearly ‘pay increases’ after 65, so that he could also keep up with inflation).

Would you want to retire on just $15,000 a year?

No?

Then the only choice that you have left is to try and get rich … quickly, slowly, any legal, safe and ethical way that you can …

Stick with me, and I’ll show you how! Really.

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Who needs more than $1,000,000?

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Almost everybody will need more than $1,000,000 to retire on … most a lot more!

Look at this excerpt from an excellent report (that I would highly recommend you spend the $5 bucks on) from Retire Early:

” Perhaps the most troubling aspect of safe withdrawal rates is that very few folks will have the financial assets required to [even bother] … While we’re blessed to live in a rich and prosperous country, only a tiny sliver of the US population can comfortably retire on their savings alone. “

In 1998 the median family income in the US was $38,885 so using a fairly safe inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 4% would require nearly $1 million in assets.

Since most folks acquire a bit more wealth as they age, about 5% of the 47-year-olds could boast $1 million nest eggs in 1998. “

That’s why the Retire Early report goes on to say:

” More worrisome, is the fact that few people with million dollar portfolios would be comfortable living on $40,000 per year. Most feel that level of wealth should support a more expansive lifestyle…

… it doesn’t, at least not safely.

There’s an old adage in wealth building, “The first million is the hardest. The second million usually comes a lot easier and quicker.”

Why?

To fund even a modest retirement, you’ll need a significant wad of cash. Prudent folks will begin saving aggressively today! “

Good advice indeed!

The Scared Millionaire

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Greed Is Good

They say there are two primal forces driving mankind forward …

…. FEAR and GREED.

The typical image that we carry of the ‘rich guy’ is the uber-slick Michael Douglas / Gordon Gekko character from the movie Wall Street who’s catch phrase was “Greed is good”.

But, the Millionaire Next Door was perhaps the first book to dispel that particular myth.  Still, we are either driven, it seems to a greater or lesser extent, by fear or greed.

Is it possible to become rich if you aren’t driven by GREED? Isn’t it also true that most millionaires are OPTIMISTS?

Well, I can only speak for myself, but what moved me forward every day was actually FEAR. You see, I am a pessimist!

EVERY time I buy something, I am thinking of how much I could lose … not how much I could gain. Yet, I go ahead and buy, anyway!

Why do I buy, if I carry so much FEAR? 

I do it because I have an EVEN BIGGER FEAR … a fear that if I don’t make these ‘big moves’, I won’t make MY NUMBER ….

… and, I have realized that making my number is the most critical thing that I can do. Unfortunately for me and my personality type, my Number was a BIG NUMBER … I simply had to move well out of my comfort zone to get there …

… and, get there I did.

So, it doesn’t matter what drives you … just make sure that SOMETHING bigger than amassing a seven-figure bank account for the sake of seeing a pretty bank statement one day IS driving you!

I think I'm revealing the whole 'secret' of money …

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In my first post I briefly alluded to the 3 stages of money: I call them Making Money 101, 201, and 301.

Starting next week, I’m going to write one post a week on each of these stages …

 First, though, let me tee up how I think about making money … serious money … say, $7 million in 7 years.

Making that sort of money – for most of us who don’t inherit, win, steal, speculate, gamble our way to that much moolah – is a long journey …

It’s not so bad when you consider that 99% of people can’t SAVE their way to $1,000,000 in 20 years … but, my point is that it’s still a journey that takes quite some time.

So, if you were to go on a long journey (besides taking a change of shorts) what would you need?

Three things …

1. A destination

You would need to know where you’re going … for a short, local journey, you probably need an address … for a long, global-scale journey, a country and city would be a nice start.

2. A map and compass

If it’s a local journey, you will probably need a street map … although, very simple instructions from somebody who knows the way will probably do.

But, if it’s a global-scale journey, the trip will most likely be broken down into stages for you by your travel agent, and you will need a series of  ‘planes, trains, automobiles’ maps, telling you how to get from HERE to THERE.

 Also, it would be a good idea to have a compass to tell which way is UP when you read the maps!

3. The Rules of the Road

Now, it would be nice to get to where you’re going without being arrested. If it’s a local journey, you can probably use common sense (although, it’s still best not to jaywalk).

But, if it’s a global scale journey, the rules may be totally different at different stages of the journey (you DO know that the Brits drive on the other side of the road, don’t you?).

Well, making money is a journey as well … therefore, you need …

… three things:

1. A destination

When it comes to money, your destination is in two parts (a) HOW MUCH you need, and (b) WHEN you need it. The when is usually in terms of WHEN you stop working, but it need not be; and the HOW MUCH is determined by how well you want to live when you get there (1 star? 5 star? In between?).

2. A map and compass

Your map will be the three stages of your financial journey (getting debt free and starting a savings plan; ramping up both your income and your investments; keeping your money once you get wherever ‘there’ is for you) and we will cover all of that over the coming weeks.

Your compass will be your Investment Net Worth (we’ll discuss the difference between this and your ordinary, old ‘net worth’ later this week).

 3. The Rules of the Road

Like every good ‘rule book’ the Rules of the Finance ‘road’ is a thick one! I’ll be giving you many of these rules over the coming weeks and months in the cyber-pages of this blog; an example of a Financial Rule is the 20% rule of investing in your own home …

… there are many, many more. By learning these Financial Rules, you can shave YEARS off the time it takes you to get rich.

This blog is here to show you how!

Are you really on track?

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I read an interesting question on one of my favorite blogs the other day.It was from a couple thinking about retirement asking the usual saving-for-retirement questions, peppered with the usual ho-hum terms: ROTH IRA’s, 401K, HSA, CD’s …

What caught my attention was the opening sentence to their post:

“I feel very knowledgeble about long term investments.  I feel I manage my retriement savings very well and this has been a top priority.”

If you think your ‘retirement is on track’ just because you are saving your 10% or so into all the ‘right investment vehicles, or retirement for you is still a hell of a long way off, I would just ask that you do the following quick ‘reality check’:

1. What is your current Net Worth (try the CNNMoney calculator)?

2. What is your annual income goal to fund the retirement that you always hoped for?

Multiply that by 20 to 40; depending on how certain you want to be that your money will last as long as you do …

3. The difference between 1. and 2. is what you have to make up (ADD a little more for inflation) between now and retirement.

If it’s only a little, keep doing what you’re doing; your retirment is probably ‘on track’ …

BUT, if it’s a lot, maybe you need to think about INVESTING actively (business, real-estate, trading) rather just SAVING (CD’s, 401K’s, etc.).”

The problem is that most people seem to SAVE (or not save) for their retirement without having a clear understanding of what they want out of retirement, therefore, how much income they need to fund that lifestyle.

It MAY have NOTHING to do with what they currently earn … yet, replacing some or all of the pre-retirement salary is what everybody seems to be aiming for. 

So, the issue changes – in my estimation, for MOST people – if they are set to save for a $35k a year retirement, but their dream of living in Tuscany [insert retirement dream of choice: working with the poor in Africa; sailing around the world; quitting my job well BEFORE usual retirement age to become a painter; etc.] requires $150k a year!

Are you really on track for your retirement? 

 

Against the odds …

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For those of you who follow this blog, you will know that a key part of getting ahead is increasing your income.

And, you will already know that I think one of the best ways to do this is to start your own business … perhaps part-time, at first, to limit your risk … and, definitely in combination with other financial strategies that I will be sharing with you over the coming weeks.

For me, the gold-standard in this area is still The E-Myth Revisited by Michael Gerber … a book that I will unashamedly admit changed by life.

But, for anybody heading down the entrepreneurial path, I equally highly recommend a book by Guy Kawasaki (ex-Apple, founder of garage.com) called Art of the Start.

Guy can also be found on his blog, where I found this interesting post, that deals with the various myths around being an entrepreneur.

The problem is that the guest author is an academic who uses ODDS to establish that some types of businesses are better than others, and to suggest that it is the type of business that you go into rather than your ‘entrepreneurial ability’ that determines your success.

Here’s where I disagree …

YOUR odds of succeeding in any business venture are exactly 50/50 … either you WILL or you WON’T succeed!

Obviously, that makes no MATHEMATICAL sense, but going into business rarely does.

That’s why the rewards for those who DO succeed can be so high. If it were easy – and if success was GUARANTEED – we’d ALL be doing it!

For example, we intuitively know that the ODDS of being a huge success are so small in, say, sandwich shops.

In fact, the article suggests that the odds of mega-success in that type of business are 840 times smaller than starting, say, a computer business.

Yet, who wouldn’t like to be Mr Subway, Mr Quizno, Mr Togo, or Mr Potbelly?

I’ll even put up $1,000 that says that each of them knew EXACTLY what they were getting themselves into when they started out.

But, somewhere along the line each and every one of these entrepreneurs … in fact, EVERY SINGLE SUCCESSFUL ENTREPRENEUR IN HISTORY … simply said: “screw the odds”.

Having done some ‘odds screwing’ of my own (a number of times, with great success) over the years, I humbly suggest that you do, too.

Please let me know how well you do …

Are you Rich, yet?

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I like reading, and sometimes commenting on, other people’s blogs.

There are some really good ones out there (check out the Blogroll in the sidebar) … especially helpful to people still in the saving/debt cycle.

 One that I read is Pinyo’s very open blog; in one post he says:

 “From The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley and William Danko, you net worth should be:

Net worth (or Assets – Liabilities) = your age X your pre-tax income / 10

If you have twice that, you are indeed on your way to become wealthy! Stanley and Danko call them Prodigious Accumulator of Wealth or PAW

I did a quick calculation yesterday in my beat up 98 Ford Contour, and our net worth should be about $345,000 according to the formula. Right now, we have about $730,000 including home equity. This mean we are a pair of PAW!”

 That got me thinking … when was the last time that I actually bothered calculating my own Net Worth?

 Why even bother? 

You see, the problem with all these external measures is just that … they are external.

If that’s what you want, Networth IQ has a free tool that helps you measure your own Net Worth … and then compare it to others.

But, the real definition of wealth is how much YOU need to live off each year (indexed with inflation) for the ‘life of your dreams’ …

… your real dreams (hint: for most people that does not require a Ferrari and a Lear Jet).

Multiply that annual amount by 20 – 40 (to be 99% sure your money will last as long as you do) … if you already have that, congratulations, you are RICH!

Simple and accurate … for you.

To buy a new(er) car … or not?

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Should you upgrade your car … or simply keep the one that you have … you know, the old rust-bucket that gets you from A to B but not in any sort of style?
It DEPENDS!
Is the vehicle a TOOL OF TRADE? Is it an ESSENTIAL requirement for your business (e.g. if you are tradesman, you need clean/reliable/fuel-efficient transport)?
Or, is it simply a mode of transport for you and your family (in which case you have MANY transport options to choose from: new v. second-hand vehicles of all shapes and sizes; public transport; etc.)?

If it is simply ‘transport’ then by hanging on to your old ‘rust bucket’ (within reason), you have made a GREAT choice!

Why?

A car is NOT an asset, it’s clearly a liability … as Robert Kiyosaki says in Rich Dad, Poor Dad, the definition of an:

ASSET is simply something that puts money INTO your pocket, and a

LIABILITY is something that takes money OUT of your pocket.

The ‘rule of thumb’ is that you should INVEST (into real long-term ASSETS) 75% of your Net Worth: a max. of 20% into your house, and the remaining 5% into your ‘stuff’ …

… once you pay for a new(er) car, it doesn’t leave a lot left for other ‘stuff’, does it?