What is the lowest cost, lowest risk way to start a business?

Posted on April 23, 2008 by Adrian

[AJC: Please do me a favor … I have added a Stumble Upon button to my right-hand tool bar …. if you click it, write a very short comment about my article – How much interest does one million dollars earn – and put it in the “Wealth” category, I would be VERY appreciative! Stumble Upon is one of the VERY BEST ways for me to increase my readership, which is good for all of us! Thanks.]

To make $7 million in 7 years (then keep it!) you need to master all the basic financial tools of multi-millionaires: businesses, stocks, real-estate … and many, many more.

So, let’s start by talking a little about ways to start your own business … having started and sold many ‘small’ businesses, I feel somewhat qualified to pontificate on this subject.

If you are looking to start the ideal small business, my suggestion is to start by looking for the business with the greatest UPSIDE rather than the one that protects your DOWNSIDE.

But, to delve a little into the question of risk:

In the old days, if we wanted to start our own business, you would find some stock, sign a lease on a storefront, hang out your shingle, advertise, and …. wait for customers.

IF the customers came, you made a small profit (competition was always sure to keep prices and profit margins low).

IF the customers failed to come, you went bankrupt (sorry!), because you: paid up front for the stock (you didn’t have a track record with the supplier yet, so COD was the best ‘deal’ they would give you); you put up personal guarantees on the storefront lease; you paid for advertising and salaries and wages; and so on.

But, that was then, and this is NOW:

Now, you can open an e-Bay store, find some leftover goods at local manufacturers and/or wholesalers and sell them … no staff, no leases, very few costs … and, grow from there.

Or, you can go right to the other extreme of Internet-based businesses and come up with the next Facebook.

And, there are a zillion opportunities to make money on the Internet, in between the e-Bay and Facebook ideas, and you can do most of them without even leaving your current job … here are the 10 dumbest ways that people made $1,000,000 on the Internet. If they can do it, so can you!

No matter how you look at it …

… the INTERNET, my friend, is the new Small Business Frontier.

Hook up the saddlebags and go West … Yeehah!

The one question that you should always ask when it seems too good to be true

Posted on April 22, 2008 by Adrian

I’m only 4 months into this blogging thing, but it has already broadened my horizons.

For example, here’s a blog that may not normally have made it to my ‘must read list’, but the guy is quite funny. I found him because he left a comment on one of my posts (it’s the one with the Mad Magazine, Alfred E Neuman avatar) … seems this is the way that blogs work.

[AJC: Leads me to wonder if the only people who read/comment on blogs are other bloggers?]

…. there is a [admittedly, small] finance point to this, so stick with me.

I saw this post on his blog: Why Don’t Psychics Win The Lottery?

Here’s an “oh, so true” snippet from his post:

Being able to tell the future and predict events should give all Psychics the ability to become rich beyond their wildest dreams. So why aren’t they?

They should be able to win the lottery, predict stock market gains and losses, predict business trends, and win in Vegas–big time. With this knowledge, they should be able to run circles around experienced financial advisers.

This caught my eye, because about a month ago, my wife and I went to a charity event (my wife was one of the organizers, so I had to go … damn, hate those events), an event that just happened to have a semi-well-known ‘mind magician’ (a.k.a. a mentalist or psychic).

Apparently, he’d been on TV …

He was quite good and managed to guess a friend’s chosen number (it was 99) as well as a bunch of other, non-numeric stuff. Now, we all know that these types of shows are all staged and the people on the stage are all ‘stooges’, right?

Well, that’s what I assumed until … wouldn’t you know it, he called my wife up to the stage.

Now, my wife is nobody’s stooge and I have the bruises to prove it 🙂

Apparently, she does have a ‘thing’ for George Clooney … the psychic guessed that – but, I didn’t know it (time for that face-and-body-lift for me … pronto!). He also guessed her ‘number’ (it was 63).

Does that make him a psychic … perhaps. Are my wife and her friends ‘new believers’ … absolutely!

But, not me; I like to apply the ‘common sense’ test to these things … the questions that I ask are simple:

1. How many digits can this guy correctly ‘read’ in one night?

Looks like 4 digits per night at 100% accuracy, from what I saw.

2. How much did he get paid for this extraordinary feat?

Not sure, but it was a local charity event (it wasn’t Vegas), so I’m guessing a few hundred bucks.

3. What would I do if I were this guy?

Now isn’t this the Litmus Test question; the one that we should always ask when confronted with a seemingly ‘too good to be true’ situation?

If I were this guy, I guess I would go to Switzerland, and stand outside a bank for a few days … waiting for one of those mysterious looking men going into their equally mysterious looking bank to access their really, really mysterious ‘secret bank’ account using only their 10 digit access code, conveniently committed to memory.

If I could guess 4 digits per day at close to 100% accuracy, then I’m pretty sure that I could guess 10 digits, if I stood outside the bank for, say, a week and made at least 3 or 4 attempts … I might need a couple of different fake moustaches

I wouldn’t net a few hundred dollars in a night, I would net the $1 Bill. or $2 Bill. sitting in some chump’s secret bank account in a week.

So, our psychic … real or not?

Your answer probably dictates whether you have any chance of making some serious money in your life … because so much of financial success [AJC: see, I promised a ‘financial’ point] depends on being able to apply simple, perhaps ‘uncommon’ sense to sort out the ‘too good to be true’ from the ‘thank god it’s true’.

Don't like your boss? That's just plain, old too bad.

Posted on April 21, 2008 by Adrian

It seems inevitable that from time to time, life’s just gonna’ suck …

For example, are you suffering from ‘Mondayitis’? Now, imagine:

It’s already 5.45 pm but you’re still stuck in your little cubicle, stapling some dumb papers together that your annoying boss said that he had to have on his desk first thing in the morning or “It’s your ass!”

It’s just about then that you start thinking that maybe opening up your own business and throwing in this whole ‘work thing’ is what you should be doing, because then …

… you won’t have some stupid boss telling you what to do!

Right?

Having sucessfully started (and sold) many businesses across a number of countries, I can honestly say that going into business because you “don’t want a boss telling you what to do” is probably the dumbest reason that you can come up with to go into business for yourself.

[AJC: High up on that same list are: money, fame, freedom … but, that’s a whole series of posts, sitting right there!]

Having a boss can really suck … I know, because I’ve had ’em and I’ve been one – and, I would not want to work for me 😉

So what?!

If you really don’t want anybody telling you what to do:

1. Don’t get married

2. Don’t sign up for a loan

3. Don’t take on a contract

4. Don’t have any customers

Get it? But, don’t let that hold you back …

5. Do start a business because it is still the greatest opportunity to make money that you will ever see!

Just don’t do it because of your boss …

So, while you are still in the ‘planning stages’ for that new venture, just remember to treat the little time that you have left with your boss as a ‘training exercise’ to learn how to grovel to: spouses, customers, and bankers …

… oh, and the traffic cop who pulls you over because you’re driving the spoils of your business success a little too fast down that hill in The Valley 😉

AJC.

PS Oh, and while you are on your mid-morning coffee break, why don’t you trot over to the 149th Canival of Personal Finance being hosted over at Happy Rock to see what I and other PF bloggers have to say?

If I were a rich man …

Posted on April 20, 2008 by Adrian

Here is the classic song from Fiddler on the Roof for our ongoing Video on Sundays series:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=RBHZFYpQ6nc

I like this version because it has the incomparable Topol singing the role of Tevye (now, those are two names that I could just as easily have swapped and nobody would have noticed!) …

… but, I also like it because it has subtitles, even though Topol sings in Y’english (English with a Russian/Yiddish accent).

I couldn’t help but think that here is a guy who wants all the trappings of wealth, but had no ‘driving emotive reason’ to get there … until the very end, where you can see the real reason why he wants to be rich: so that he can study and debate the ancient Hebrew texts with other idle academics!

He needs to buy time with money … a very common reason for aiming for wealth (actually, this was my reason).

You see, I believe that without that driving emotive reason, there will be no wealth!

Why?

Well, as Tevye says:

If I were a biddy biddy rich… I wouldn’t have to work hard diddy diddy dum

He doesn’t get the point: you have to work 10 times as hard NOW in order to become rich LATER … so that you don’t have to work hard diddy diddy dum … get it?!

That’s why you need that driving emotive reason … without it, you will never have the passion and stamina to push a very big rock up a very big hill … or, in Tevye’s case, pull a cart without a donkey!

Well that’s enough work for today … diddy diddy dum 😉

How much interest do you earn on one million dollars?

Posted on April 19, 2008 by Adrian

Welcome new readers!

Here are three of my favorite posts to get you started; if you want to find out:

1. If $1 million will be enough to retire with, then click here, or

2. How much house you can afford, then click here, or

3. Why buying a new car is such a losing proposition, then click here.

Otherwise, please enjoy this article, then bookmark my home page (click here) and come back often …

____________________________________________________________________________________________

“How much interest do you earn on one million dollars?”

This was the question that Clint at Accumulating Money asked in a ‘classic’ post – I commented on it earlier this year and still receive click-through’s two or three months later. It must be a very popular question!

I’m not sure why, because it implies that people are happy to just have their life savings ‘sit’ in CD’s …

… but, here’s the answer to the “million dollar” question courtesty of Accumulating Money anyway:

So, to answer the question, how much interest do you earn on One Million Dollars (assuming a 4% interest rate, compounded monthly)?

One Day – $109.59

One Month – $3,333.33

One Year – $40,741.54

Five Years – $220,996.59

Ten Years – $490,832.68

Twenty Years – $1,222,582.09

I think this related question asked by Afroblanco at Ask Metafilter – repeated on Get Rich Slowly (which is where I picked it up) – really goes to show how The Savers (as opposed to The Investors) think:

“What’s the safest possible thing that I can do with my money?” :

I take bearishness to an extreme. Having witnessed the 2000 tech crash, I have no faith in the stock market or the US economy. I keep all of my money (USD) in a savings account. However, with the recent financial turmoil, I have a few questions:

Is it conceivable for the FDIC to fail?

If so, is there a place where I can put my money that will be safer than a savings account?

What’s the safest, most risk-free way for me to save money and not get killed by inflation and the tanking US dollar?

If there is a safe way for me to save money and not be punished by inflation and the depreciating dollar, is there a way that I can do this without having to stress out and micromanage my finances? I don’t want to be checking the finance page and making adjustments every day.

Even though I follow finance news, I’ve never done any investing or money management other than socking money away in my savings account. I’m a n00b, I admit it.

OK … I confess …. I am like our friend, Afroblanco … very risk-averse; yet I have become rich by understanding that it is actually safer to invest than not.

The GREATEST RISK that our friend can take is NOT TO INVEST … inflation will just eat up any bank deposit/CD strategy.

Take Accumulating Money’s example above:

One million dollars approximately doubles in 20 years … but, inflation will halve its buying power!

Think about it, if the average bank interest rate is 4% (pushing the value of your savings UP) and inflation averages 4% (pushing the buying power or value of your savings DOWN), what have you gained in 20 years?

Nothing …

Now, if you just push your savings into a low cost Index Fund that averages, say, an 8% return over the 20 years, then the same 4% inflation means that you should effectively DOUBLE the value (or ‘buying power’) of your million dollars over 20 years.

But, Afroblanco is even better off BUYING The Bank [i.e. investing in the Bank’s stock] than putting his money in The Bank. The risk of failure is about the same (if the bank fails you will lose the money that you have IN the bank’s vault as well as the money IN the bank’s stock), yet, as long as he has a long-term view (minimum 20 to 30 years), the former strategy will make him rich and the latter broke.

If the bank stock averages just 12% average growth over 20 years – as any well-picked Value Stock, can easily do – then Afroblanco won’t just double the buying power of his money ONCE, he will get to double it TWICE … that’s $4 million AFTER the effect of inflation (or, the $1 million grows to $10 million in ‘raw’ dollars).

What about risk? Aren’t bank deposits FDIC Insured?

[AJC: Well, yeah … up to a paltry $100k – of course, you could open up 4 bank accounts at 4 different banks … but, $400k is hardly what I hope my readers are aiming at!]

But, inflation is a much bigger risk: 100% certain to eat up your money … and, would the Federal Government (the same entity backing the FDIC) allow a Major US Retail Bank to fail?

I guess we’ll find out in the next few months!

If you don’t believe that’s likely, then isn’t your money just as safe in The Bank as it is in the bank?

[AJC: think about it 😉 ]

And, doesn’t The Bank’s stock at least meet the overall market returns which averaged 8% p.a. for the past 100 years … what have bank deposits averaged in that time? 3%? 5%?

The point here is not necessarily to buy stock in The Bank … rather it’s to think about Investing rather than Saving …

Before suggesting WHAT to invest in, we need to know HOW long is our friend is expecting his money to last? Assuming that our friend is a hands-off investor, here’s what I suggest as the lowest-risk strategies possible:

If less than 30 years, then TIPS are a an option – PROVIDED that he can live off the inflation-adjusted interest (unfortunately, very unlikely in the current low interest environment – but, in 5/10 years, who knows?).

If 30 years or more, then a low-cost Index Fund is ideal for a hands-off investor. There has been NO 30 year period since the recording of the stock market indices where the market has not produced a positive return well above inflation.

If he is more hands on and/or more knowledgeable, then I would recommend no more than 4 or 5 well-selected individual stocks and direct investment in real-estate, for any time period 10 years or greater.

Inflation forces us to invest … because of this, inflation is our friend!

Business and real-estate: a marriage made in heaven

Posted on April 18, 2008 by Adrian

I was reading a review of Robert Kiyosaki’s new book, Increase Your Financial IQ, on Patrick’s blog.

The book holds no great interest for me … although, Robert Kiyosaki’s Financial IQ # 1 did:

It simply says: “Financial IQ #1 – Make More Money” …

… which is perhaps the only real ‘secret’ to getting rich – which is strange, since it seems so self-evident … but, that’s the subject for another post.

But, I was interested in Patrick’s summary of what he liked / didn’t like about the book:

Like.Kiyosaki is a contrarian, which at times is a good thing. He believes more people should work for themselves to create wealth and alternative income streams instead of relying on trading your time for a paycheck. This is contrary to what many people believe – go to school, get a good job, and save. Not everyone should run their own business, in my opinion, but everyone can do little things to increase their income.

Didn’t like.Kiyosaki is extremely harsh on the stock markets, which in itself is not a bad thing. But it is a bad thing when you make incorrect blanket statements about them. Case in point: “You can train a monkey to save money and invest in mutual funds. That is why the returns on those investment vehicles are historically low.

Now, I happen to agree with all of the above …

Rich people make their money in businesses and keep their money in real-estate … pure and simple.

It’s what Robert Kiyosaki did (his business was writing books and making/selling ‘Cashflow’ games; his wife looked after the real-estate investing side of the “Kiyosaki Family Business”) … and, it’s what I did …

… and, according to the new book about the wealthy – Get Rich, Stay Rich, Pass It On (think of it as The Millionaire Next Doorfor the new millennium) – it’s the way that the 5,000 rich families that they interviewed got – and keep – their money through the generations.

[AJC: Before you rush out an buy this book, wait to read my upcoming review … the stats are great … the conclusions that the authors draw from the stats are downright dangerous!]

I recently reminded my Grandmother (95 and still kicking) of a story that she told me when I was very young … one of those simple stories that can define you … it certainly defined the way I think about saving v spending.

She said that when she first emigrated from Europe, and she and my Grandfather had re-established themselves as poor but hard-working immigrants, they had a dilemma …

My Grandmother wanted to use their savings to buy a house so that they could have a stable environment in which to bring up my mother (an only child) in their adopted homeland.

My Grandfather wanted to use their savings to start a business.

He eventually ‘won’ the debate by saying something that I will never forget:

You can always buy a house from a business … but, you will never buy a business from a house

You can argue whether this is true – after all the 20% Rule encourages you to use your home equity to invest – but, would you have the intestinal fortitude to put yourself deeper in debt to buy or start a business?

Or, would it be better to delay buying that house and pay for it later using the profits of the business?

I for one like the business route: anybody can start a business, just try it part time and limit your financial risk … if it takes off, fine … if not, try again …

Businesses do one thing really well: produce free cash! But, free cash-flow is useless, except for three purposes:

1. Reinvesting in the business to make it grow even faster

2. Increased lifestyle for the owner

3. To fund property acquisitions (build up for a deposit) and/or running costs (cover paying mortgages if the rent doesn’t).

Since I borrowed so heavily from Patrick’s post, I thought that I should let him have the last word on this:

I will guess you like all three of them, but number 1 has the largest benefit while you are growing your business. Do that for a while until you reach the point when your ROI experiences diminishing returns, then use the money for 2 and 3. As long as you increase 2 at a lower rate than the rate your free cash increases, you should be OK.

Right on the money, Patrick … right on the money!

… 7million7years doesn't even know how much is in his Retirement Accounts!

Posted on April 17, 2008 by Adrian

[continued from yesterday]

Now, I’m not particularly proud of this … but, it is true … I have no idea how much is in my retirement accounts; and, I didn’t even bother opening my own 401k account as CEO of my last company!

Why?

Yesterday, I wrote about the costs that can build up in the ‘food chain’ of the investing world, showing that merely accounting for the cost-differential between a typical mutual fund and a typical low-cost index fund can account for 20% of the performance of your entire investment portfolio after just 10 years.

I also, mentioned that I don’t like any of these products (even low-cost index funds, even though I will recommend them to lay-investors), primarily because of lack of control and too much diversification (who ever got rich from diversifying?!) …

So, the second part of this post will, hopefully, tell you why I don’t worry about 401k’s and Roth IRA’s as well as address a question that I recently received from a reader who asked:

Any suggestions on a strategy to use for retirement accounts if you earn beyond the limit for a 401k and Roth Ira? I have no company match for a 401k … get hit hard in taxes and have discovered that there is an income limit to a 401k and Roth IRA. Any suggestions?

Well my simple suggestion is: don’t …

The only time that I invest in a retirement account is when my accountant says:

“AJC, you have too much income flowing in, we had better plonk some into your [401k; Roth IRA, Superannuation Plan, whatever]”.

Yet, using a tax shelter is saving money, and as yesterday’s post showed, even a small difference in cost can add to a big difference in outcome … so, what do I really recommend and why?

If you still have plenty of working years left, I don’t recommend that anybody invests inside their company 401k except to get the ‘company match’ (who can argue with ‘free money’… yee hah!)

I also don’t recommend that anybody – who still has 10+ years of working/investing ‘life’ left – invests inside any tax-vehicles (such as a Roth IRA) etc. UNLESS they can:

(a) Choose their investments, and

(b) leverage those investments.

By choosing, I mean the whole gamut of what we want to be investing in: e.g. businesses, stocks, real-estate, and ???.

Now, in practice, these 401k/IRA’s are limited, so if you don’t intend to invest in some/all of these classes of investment or you have so little money to invest that you can ‘fit’ the whole or part of your intended, say, stock purchase strategy into one of these vehicles then, absolutely … knock yourself out!

Therefore, for most people, it’s still possible that a 401k or Roth IRA can provide an important place in their investing strategy … simply because the amount that they have to invest is so small …

… even so, they should go ahead only if it doesn’t limit the scope of their overall investing strategy, hence returns!

And, we should all know by now that primary importance of your investing strategy should be set on maximizing growth unless:

i) You are within a few years of retirement, when you no longer have time to take risks and recover from mistakes), or

ii) Have such a long-term, low-value outlook that simply saving in a 401k will do the trick (in which case, invest to the max.).

Just remember, this blog and my advice isn’t for everyone … it’s only for those who need to become rich …

… which usually means getting into investments that:

1. You understand and love, and

2. You can grow over time, and

3. You can leverage through borrowings.

If it doesn’t meet all three of these criteria, I simply don’t invest!

Direct investments in businesses and real-estate are the investment choices of the rich because of these three criteria… stocks to a lesser degree (you can only ‘margin borrow’ up to 100% of these, so the amount of ‘leverage’ that you can apply is lower than for, say, real-estate) … and, Managed Funds even less so (you can margin-borrow only on some of these, and only from limited sources).

For me, the limits that tax-effective vehicles place on me, and the maximums that I am allowed to invest in them, automatically reduce these typical ‘tax shelters’ to a very minor position in my portfolio … so minor, that I allow my accountant to manage them for me, totally.

Remember, though, that they only became a minor portion of my portfolio because I followed the advice that I am giving you here when I was still early into my working/investing career!

Now, I hope that (eventually) you, too, will have so much money OUTSIDE your 401K that whatever is INSIDE will be insignificant for you … in the meantime, at least invest for the full company match.

Pretty controversial? Let me know what you think?

Why 7million7years doesn't buy 'packaged' products …

Posted on April 16, 2008 by Adrian

I left a somewhat tongue-in-cheek footnote to a recent post on the differences between Index Funds and ETFs (if you didn’t read it, I favor the former over the latter for neophyte investors, and neither for serious investors):

Important Note: 7million7dollars does NOT currently invest in any Index Funds, Mutual Funds, or other “Packaged Investment Products” … apparently, he is just a (rich) product of the Stone Age

It seems to me that the wave of packaged products has increased over the past 20 years.

No longer do you tend to hear those stories of people like the reclusive and grumpy Old Man Miller who fell off a ladder and died leaving no heirs and a box of dusty old stock-certificates that now just happens to be worth $900,000 (not to mention a pile of gold just sitting under some lumber in the old wood-yard)!

It’s not just stocks … it seems that you can’t buy L’il Jon a toy without taking out your industrial grade laser to burn through 15 layers of impossible-to-open plastic ‘bubble’ packaging.

Think about the cost-differential between a typical consumer product at manufacture (the price it cost the guy who made it in: raw materials, labor, tooling, bulk packaging, and bulk shipping) and the eventual end consumer who buys it at retail: the price can inflate by 5 to 7 times … or even more.

The more hands, the more cost … simple.

Similarly, with ‘investment products’ …

… in my perhaps archaic way of looking at things, the further removed that I am from the investment, the less control I have, the more people who want to add cost (including their profit) into it, and less I like it.

That’s one of the reasons that businesses (my own) are my favorite form of investment … followed by direct investment in real-estate … followed by direct investments in company stock.

Now, if you do decide to invest in a fund, why would you choose a Low Cost Index Fund over the typical well-diversified Mutual Fund?

Unless, you can guarantee to find me a Mutual Fund that will outperform the market over the next 10 years (considering that 85% of fund managers don’t beat the market, that’s an easy bet for me to take), I would choose the lower cost option, simply because of cost.

If the Index Fund charged you only 0.25% of your total investment amount to enter the fund and another 0.25% a year to manage it for you, but the mutual fund charged you 1.0% and 1.0% [BTW: in this example, the Index Fund fees are too high and the Mutual Fund fees are too low] …

… over just 10 years (assuming an average 8% return for each), you would have paid the Index Fund just over $43,000 in fees … but, the Mutual Fund $157,000.

Why so much?

Because, you also need to factor in the foregone earnings on the amount that you could have had invested, if those fees weren’t there …

On the other hand, if you invested directly in some stocks and just managed to meet the market, with little to no fees (it costs just $7 to buy, say, $25,000 of stock using an on-line broker) …

… now you know why I don’t like packaged products!

I encourage you to run some numbers for yourself …

[To be Continued]

How to sort the rational wheat from the emotional chaff …

Posted on April 15, 2008 by Adrian

I published a post last week called 10 steps to whatever it is that you want … how to weigh up the cost of a lifestyle decision which outlined a basic Making Money 101 decision-making process to help you sort your way through a discretionary purchase decision (you know the type: “Hey, that 48″ plasma screen would look really great on that wall!”).

You see, I come from the school of Ambivalent Frugality – sometimes you should … sometimes you shouldn’t. After all, money was invented to trade for ‘stuff’, right?

We just have to trade it for the RIGHT stuff, only when we can AFFORD it; and, the 10 Steps were designed to help us do exactly that.

Now, I don’t normally do a follow-up post so quickly … after all, what will I have left to write about next month?! 🙂

[AJC: kind’a reminds me of the old joke: why shouldn’t you look out of your office window all morning? Because you’ll have nothing to do all afternoon!]

But, Diane had a great question attached to my original post that this post is designed to help her answer – and, I hope that it helps you, too!

Here’s part of Diane’s question:

Have a dilemma regarding is it a need or a want – I have a house now, student loans, bad debt and need to decrease everything. I have a rescue Old English Sheepdog I’ve had now over a year and a half. Always meant to get a [larger] fence up, even prior to getting him, but had different expenses and no savings to cover them (hence the debt climb) and have put off getting a fence up … under the 10 questions, it doesn’t qualify as something to change lifestyle, but … I think this is a need, but … it is a financial decision as well. It’s not putting food in our mouths, but it is providing shelter and protection for the family dog who is also protection for us (single mom household). Or is this too left-field?

Now, this is definitely not left field, but – at least on the surface- the 10 Questions seem more designed to answer “can I afford ‘stupid stuff'”-type questions than these really tricky emotional ones.

In my experience, when we get into emotional ‘need v want v life-changing’ questions, rational decision-making can fall flat on it’s head.

But, I have a simple solution …

… one that doesn’t need to involve attempting to answer (preferably, Qualified Shrink Assisted) a myriad of ‘soft’ questions like: “will the animal suffer if you don’t put the larger fence up?” and/or “will YOU suffer if you delay puttin the larger fence up?” and/or “did your parents emotionally ‘fence’ you in when you were young and are you projecting this onto your dog?” and so on [AJC: Sigmund would be SO proud of me].

Instead, I shortcut the whole process for Diane – and, I suggest that you give this a try next time you are trying to avoid answering the 10 Questions because you really need something that you probably can’t afford, too – by simply asking her to do the following:

Follow the 10 questions exactly as written … that’s what I put them there for!

Simple … isn’t it?

Now, Diane, if you followed this advice on Sunday when you left your comment, by now you would have made your own sane, rational decision. Right?

If as I suspect, given your financial position, it was against Poor Pooch then I have a question for you:

How do you really feel now, having made that really hard decision?

…… [Diane inserts emotional feeling of (a) relief having made the ‘right’ decision, or (b) pain having made what feels like a terrible, albeit financially correct decision, or (c) she’s emotionally dead] …..

Diane – and all of us – that is the only way to sort through an emotional need from a want:

Make the decision rationally, then see how you really feel …

… then, go with your feeling!

That’s what LIFE is all about … and, didn’t we just say that our money is to support our life?

AJC.

PS There’s a neat shortcut to this process: when faced with a difficult choice – and you don’t want to pay for professional advice to help you get through the decision-making process – simply flip a coin and mentally go with the decision. Dig deep to see how that makes you feel … and, go with your feeling!

How do I figure social security and pension plans into my 'Number'?

Posted on April 14, 2008 by Adrian

In a couple of posts, I have talked about The Number – the amount that you need to have saved (preferably, invested in passive income-producing investments) by the time you retire.

Before we move on, it’s probably time for a quick review of what I mean by ‘retirement date’ because it’s not the same age-related date as most Personal Finance books and blogs assume:

‘Retirement Date’ = The Date YOU Choose to Stop Work!

… This is not 65 or any other age your boss, the government, or society tells you! If you are 35 years old and actually want to retire @ 65 on $1,000,000 a year this is NOT the blog for you!

Now, having got that one off my chest (!), one of my readers, who IS close to the traditional retirement age, asks a great question about how to figure his retirement benefits (which, he will receive as an annuity rather than a lump sum) into The Number for him …

… you can read his original comments here, but this is the essence of his problem:

I am just having trouble trying to quantify my pension so I can include it in my net worth … the trouble is I don’t receive a lump sum, but rather 65% of my base upon retirement, every year, which includes increases for cost of living every year.

The problem is that this reader was trying to find a way to calculate the ‘implied passive asset value’ of this pension into his Net Worth … while you could do that, there’s no real reason to.

If you are in a similar situation, what you really need to know is:

Can I live my ideal retirement on this pension … if not how much extra do I need to count on having in investments by the time I do want to retire?

To do that, we only need to make a slight modification to the formula we have used before.

1. STATE how much you need to live your ‘ideal retirement‘ assuming that you stopped work today (it’s not how much you would have, but how much you would need). What is that number?

2. DOUBLE that amount for every twenty years that you have left until retirement (add 50% if only 10 years, etc.). What is that number?

3. SUBTRACTthe annual value of any social security, annuities, pensions, or other regular amounts that you are reasonably (actually, very) certain to get. What is that number?

4. MULTIPLY your answer by 20 (slightly conservative) to 40 (very conservative). That is The Number … for you!

A couple of points:

I usually ignore Social Security and other government benefits, mainly because governments and regulations change … the longer until your chosen ‘retirement’ the more chance that these things will vaporize before you get there.

Similarly, I work on pre-tax numbers, because I have no idea what the tax regulations will be like …. the longer you have to wait until your chosen ‘retirement date’ the more chance that taxes will change (read: increase) before you get there.

But, these are only rough calcs to get you aiming towards a (probably) larger target than you previously figured on … as you get closer to your planned retirement, you will no doubt have had a number of sessions with a suitably qualified financial adviser who will figure out the exact effects of things like: inflation, taxes, social security.

Now, if you are still a fair way away from retirement (say 10+ years) you may want to figure in the impact of the pension on your Investment Net Worth.

You could multiply your expected yearly retirement benefit, again assuming that you were retiring today, by 20 (this time using the lower number means that you are being extra-conservative) and add this figure to your assumed Investment Net Worth.

You could also add it to your ordinary, garden-variety Net Worth to make 20% Rule decisions regarding how much ‘house’ you can afford.

You could do these things … but, I wouldn’t.

Why?

How certain can you be that you will qualify for any of these things in 10+ years?

What happens if you can’t work, get laid off, your company goes broke or it can’t meet it’s obligations, or … ?

The reason for these ‘rules’ is to ensure that you put your foot on the investment gas … now … and, hard!

Don’t use possible future company or government benefits as an excuse to over-spend and under-invest!

By the time you do retire, you’ll be glad that you didn’t …