Tag Archives: money

Who are 'the rich', really?

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_________

“The rich are different from you and me.” — F. Scott Fitzgerald

“Yes, they have more money.” — Ernest Hemingway

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I received a pretty strong reaction from some readers to a post – largely tongue in cheek – that had a ‘social moral’ …

… that ‘rich people’ are actually just ‘people’ who happen to have a few more zeros in their bank account.

For a start, let’s look at how they got there: inheritance; marriage; luck; hard work [AJC: although, ‘marriage’ could also be included in this last one 🙂 ]

It’s a stretch then to say that ‘The Rich’ can be genetically or socially any different to the ‘The Not Rich’: what are the common traits required for each of the above methods? None obvious to me …

So, if anybody can get rich, why should ‘The Rich’ be any better or worse on any human scale (e.g. being socially responsible; giving to charity; etc; etc) than anybody else?

On the other hand, they may have the means to display their characteristics more obviously – for better or worse 😉

But, let’s not generalize, let’s turn to Prof. Thomas J. Stanley, former professor of marketing at Georgia State University (author of The Millionaire Next Door and The Millionaire Mind); I found a summary of the latter book by noted economist Prof. Mark Skousen who says:

Here are the results of his (Prof. Stanley’s] survey of over 1,000 super-millionaires (people who earn $1,000,000 a year or more):

  • They live far below their means, and have little or no debt. Most pay off their credit cards every month; 40% have no home mortgage at all.
  • Millionaires are frugal; they prepare shopping lists, resole their shoes, and save a lot of money; but they are not misers; they live balanced lives.
  • 97% are homeowners; they tend to live in fine homes in older neighborhoods. (Only 27% have ever built their “dreamhome.”)
  • 92% are married; only 2% are currently divorced. Millionaire couples have less than one-third the divorce rate of non-millionaire couples. The typical couple in the millionaire group has been married for 28 years, and has three children. Nearly 50% of the wives of the super-rich do not work outside the home.
  • Most are one-generation millionaires who became wealthy as business owners or executives; most did not inherit their wealth.
  • Almost all are well educated; 90% are college graduates, and 52% hold advanced degrees; however, few graduated top of their class — most were “B” students. They learned two lessons from college: discipline and tenacity.
  • Most live balanced lives; they are not workaholics; 93% listed socialiazing with family members as their #1 activity; 45% play golf. (Stanley didn’t survey whether they were avid book readers — too bad.)
  • 52% attend church at least once a month; 37% consider themselves very religious.
  • They share five basic ingredients to success: integrity, discipline, social skills, a supportive spouse, and hard work.
  • They contribute heavily to charity, church and community activities (64%).
  • Their #1 worry: taxes! Their average annual federal tax bill: $300,000. The top 1/10 of 1% of U.S. income earners pays 14.7% of all income taxes collected!
  • “Not one millionaire had anything nice to say about gambling.” Okay, but his survey also showed that 33% played the lottery at least once during the year!

Thus, we see how the super upper-income families of this nation are not the ones contributing to crime, welfare, divorce, child abuse, and a spendthrift society. But they are playing a lot of taxes and making a lot of contributions to solve these social problems.

But one still wonders, why are any of the ‘Rich = Bad’ believers reading a blog titled:  How to Make $7 Million in 7 years?

To cap off the week …

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I can’t think of a better way to cap off a week’s commentary on the current financial meltdown than to 100% plagiarize this letter to the New York Times – it’s by none other than Warren Buffett …

… so, read carefully as to what a conservative guy who has almost 100% of his PERSONAL assets in nice, safe government bonds is doing right now.

[AJC: I was going to highlight the critical sections for you, but it’s ALL critical, so if you just want to give it your usual 27 second scan, that’s your problem 😉 ]

October 17, 2008
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR

Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT

Omaha
THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities. [Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company]

’nuff said 🙂

Making Money 301? Hold on to your horses ….

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Part 3 of a 3 part series on weathering the current financial storm …

By now you know that when we have made our Number, our #1 objective is to hold on to our money!

We do that by a combination of wise spending and savings habits (learned way back in Making Money 101, and practiced almost to the point of stupidity in Making Money 201) and very sound investing strategies.

Firstly, though, what do you do if you have just had the wind kicked out of your 401k’s sails by the sudden crash?

Well, it really shouldn’t be an issue, because the chances are that you planned for an annual stock market return of something like 11% – 12% over 20 years and you overachieved dramatically for most of it … but, rather than increasing your spending based upon your unexpected ‘good fortune’ you realized that all good things must come to an end and you gritted your teeth expecting a reversal to bring you back to earth.

In fact, if you were really smart, you set yourself 10 or 20 year ‘targets’ and when you achieved those, you started preparing for Making Money 301 early and sold down your excess stocks and/or real-estate (i.e. the equity in excess of your ‘target’) and moved it into cash, bonds, or far more boring commercial real-estate investments (using minimal, if any, borrowings).

Now you are retired (well, you at least aren’t counting on any outside income), but you have been battered and bruised a little by the current ‘meltdown’ so your buffer isn’t as large as it was a few months ago, but you are still OK.

[AJC: I’m speaking from personal experience, now]

Remember, your Rule of 20 strategy was designed to deliver 5% of your ‘nest egg’ to live off each year, leaving another 5% to be reinvested to keep pace with an expected 5% average inflation … in other words, produce an indefinite stream of annual income that grows with inflation.

The problem is 5% + 5% = 10% AFTER TAX, so we NEED a 12% to 15% compounded annual growth rate to make all of this work …

… and, the current crash has probably temporarily wiped out most of any buffer that we had managed to retire with i.e. any money that you managed to salt away in excess of expectations … who said that EXACTLY Your Number was going to fall into your lap EXACTLY on Your date?!

What to do, given that there are signs of a prolonged flattening of the market?

Here are a some advanced strategies, sensible in ANY market for Making Money 301, but particularly now:

1. Do NOT keep your money in CASH (other than a 2 year Emergency Fund) – if you have no buffer, then every year you earn ONLY 5% on your CD’s is a year that you are really LOSING 5% of the remaining value of your ‘nest egg’ to inflation!

Equally, do not keep it in a cash-equivalent (e.g. bonds – with the exception noted below) OR in stocks or Index Funds: you need a min. 5% return – indexed for inflation) UNLESS there are stocks that you understand/love that pay a 5% dividend and you are 100% certain that dividends won’t be cut in the coming recession.

2. Purchase commercial property for 100% cash or very low LVR (Loan-to-Valuation ratios), such that the net rents each year provide EXACTLY the annual income $$$ amount that you are looking for + 25% ‘buffer’ (for vacancies, repairs/maintenance/etc.). If you are worried by commercial, residential (or a mixture) is OK.

You can spend the entire rent (except for the buffer) as it will:

a. Keep up with inflation, because you will have a CPI ‘ratchet clause’ in your lease, if you rent well, and

b. Your capital (represented by the property itself) will also at least increase with inflation, if you buy well.

3. Buy a select group of ‘blue chip’ stocks that you love/understand (etc., etc.) on low historic P/E’s and write Covered Calls against them; this works well in a flat-to-slightly-growing market, so the current volatility may need to settle into a more extended period of gloom-with-some-slight-hope before you can execute properly … but, now’s a great time to start (very!) small and experiment!

4. Be boring: buy TIPS (Inflation protected Treasury Bonds), but only if you applied the Rule of 40 instead of the Rule of 20 … these currently only produce about 2.5% TAXABLE annual income (except if your Number is so small that ROTH IRA’s – or similar – will do the job for you).

Only buy the TIPS using 95% of your ‘nest egg’; retain 5% of your cash (over-and-above that emergency fund – although, holding TIPS means that you can probably cut this back, as well) … use it to start buying Calls against the market (pick an ETF that tracks the S&P 500) or, against 4 or 5 individual stocks if you are more daring.

While you’re waiting for the market to stabilize a little, now’s a good time to start slow and practice: after each major pull back, buy a Call and see if you can make a gain on the upswing (set a profit target and sell when your reach it … wait for the next ‘pull back’ and try again).

5. Buy a Fixed Annuity – costs suck, but if you can’t do 2. or 3., what’s really left for you besides TIPS or this?

And, if it (in fact, any of these strategies) produces your required Annual Income Number (the annuity MUST be indexed for inflation) who cares? But, remember to spread your risks over a few insurers (remember AIG?) … you don’t want them to go down holding your cash (keep in mind that even if the insurer crashes, your underlying investments should still be safe and be handed back to you … at least, that’s how the story goes)!

So, for any rich readers out there sweating my posts (you know, like the doctors who watch ER just to point out all the faults: “Oh, what a bunch of BS … he’d never spline the clavicle with a Humphreys 458!”):

What’s worked for you in past ‘bear markets’? What do you think will work for you in this one?

Making Money 201? Whoohoo … time to have some fun!

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I’ve just loaded 14 new videos into the Vault (click on this link, or check the VodPod Widget on the right hand side of this page for the latest) …

Now for today’s post: Part 2 of a 3 part series on weathering the current financial storm …

OK, so we’re all panicking … at least that’s what the media seems to be telling us as 180 year old investing firms crumble, banks crash and the financial markets are in turmoil, even after a $700 Billion ‘rescue package’.

Time to run for the hills?

Well, if meeting average market returns over a long period is enough to satisfy your needs, read yesterday’s post … click the close button on this page NOW (and, also on every personal finance page / news source hot tip / etc. /etc.) … and, live happy my friend: by the time that you retire, the events of today (and, the two or three more ‘meltdowns’ that you will no doubt live through) will be distant memory and you can only hurt your financial prospects by paying any attention to current events … and, I mean any given set of ‘current events’ between now and the day that you sign-off for ever.

But, that’s not you, is it?

You want – nay, need – extraordinary returns, extraordinarily soon … right?!

In that case, maybe it’s time to listen to our good friend Warren Buffett – The World’s Greatest Investor:

“Occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics is equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either. We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

– Warren Buffett, 2001.

So, does this seem like a time to be fearful to you … or a time to be greedy?

According to Warren, it’s a time to be … greedy: how?

Well, in the current market, everybody knows that cash is king … so, let’s go and make lots more of it!

Before we take off, let’s do a quick ‘pre-flight’ check; do you have your financial house in order?

Let’s see: your 401k has taken a hit, your house has devalued …

… but, you have little credit card or consumer debt, and you are socking away money regularly. So, CHECK.

Great!

Welcome to Making Money 201, which is all about increasing your income through some combination of hard work and risk-taking – the combination that you choose is entirely up to you (and, how ‘steep’ your Number/Date ‘mountain’ will be to climb).

Why do we need more income (besides the obvious!)?

Because, everything financial is on sale right now: stocks, real-estate, loans … the whole box ‘n dice … so, we want to be ‘cashed up’ to take advantage of all the bargains coming our way.

The only problem is ‘market timing’ … take a look at this chart from the Wall Street Journal:

It shows the stock market from 1900 to today, every year across the bottom … but, the right hand side shows a logarithmic (i.e. exponential) scale.

This means that the next move in the market, over a (say) 20 year bull market, will take the Dow Jones from 1,000 to 10,000 … sounds HUGE (and, it is: 10 times your money in 20 years!) … but is ‘only’ an annual compound growth rate of 12%.

The problem, though, is in the RED areas of the chart:

These show the Super Bear Markets – which can be described as FLAT periods in the market that can last 10 to 20 years (if history is any guide) interspersed with volatile short-term up/down movements.

So, I see two possible strategies:

1. Build up CASH

… to be positioned to take advantage of the Next Great Bull Run. Or, maybe we invest in property – I’m sure that we could produce a similar chart.

Here’s what to do: tighten your belt … resign yourself to very limited increase in lifestyle for now … and, take all of your excess income from your full-time business, part-time business, 2nd job, lottery winnings, inheritances, whatever and, buy stocks (and/or real-estate) whenever you can.

Look for bargains in the market (you know, great companies paying good dividends and/or growing profits even now, that have been beaten down to less than 12 to 15 P/E … better is 8 to 10 P/E) and start buying into 4 or 5 of these … and, keep buying! Don’t stop … ever.

This will create your own mini-Berkshire Hathaway, making you a mini-Warren Buffet: you have a ‘cash machine’ (job/s, business/es) and you use it to buy good businesses cheap; then you hold forever. If the price goes down, so what? You simply buy more at the cheaper price as soon as you can afford it. And, if the price of the stock goes up, good fer you, Son … now and go an’ buy yerself some more!

When the market does ride the next wave (one that you will only see in hindsight) you will really see how cheap you got in …

2. Ride the volatility

The first is the ‘safe’ strategy, but will net us closer to 0% growth over the life of the Bear Market than the greater-than-market returns that we need … we need time to ride the downturn and pop out the other end with a basket of great stocks/real-estate assets bought at relatively cheap prices.

But, if you are able to accept some significant risk, there is another way …

Now just might be the time to take a business / trading approach to the market!

In a volatile market, we don’t know from one day/week/month to the next whether stocks will be significantly up or down … but we do know that they will change: often significantly.

This can be an ideal time to speculate with options … but, only with money that you are prepared to lose in the hope that the upside justifies the risk.

Sounds a lot like a business, doesn’t it? Which is why this is an ideal Making Money 201 Income Building Strategy for those who can stomach the ride.

What do I do?

Pick a stock that you like, but that has great volatility … ‘tech’ stocks are ideal for this (AAPL, RIMM, etc., etc.) and buy an equal quantity of PUTS and CALLS at the smallest gap around the current stock price. Sometime during the month, in a volatile market like this, it’s a reasonable bet (at least, I like to think so) that the price will change. If it does – by enough of a margin to pay for the cost of the options – you win!

Of course, you could flip/trade houses, if you prefer real-estate … but, the strategy is essentially the same: add value from volatility and/or sweat to ‘create’ returns in an otherwise generally flat market.

So, if you’re in Making Money 201, why don’t you share with us what you are you doing to not only weather the storm, but profit from it?

Making Money 101? What to do today!

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I write about advanced financial strategies; these are designed in three stages: Making Money 101 – Get on your feet, financially speaking; Making Money 201 – Build your wealth; and, Making Money 301 – Keep your wealth.

Another way to look at it is that my blogs are all about getting you to your Number, then keeping you there!

Since we are dealing in time-frames of years (at least 7 years to go from ‘zero to financial hero’) we have to expect to deal in all phases of market cycles – both the up’s and the down’s – so I avoid talking about specific ‘today’ strategies in favor of the longer-term.

However, my son has said that I need to help people through the current financial ‘crisis’, so that’s what I am going to do over the next 3 days:

Today, advice for all those Making Money 101 …

Wherever your money is right now, keep it there!

That’s it, thanks for reading 😉

Oh, you want details?!

OK, here it comes:

– If you are currently in cash, stay in cash.

– If you are currently in stocks or mutual funds, stay in stocks/mutual funds.

– If you are currently in real-estate AND can afford the payments and are not ridiculously in credit card and other consumer debt, stay in real-estate.

Why?

Well, as this post explained, over the long run, you will achieve the market averages for all of these investment choices … only if you stick with them through thick and thin.

Right now qualifies as being about as ‘thin’ as anything in the last 100+ years 😉

If you run away during the bad times (now) and only buy in the good times (2006) you will be buying high and selling low: the exact opposite of what you should be doing …

… then, you will be lucky to make 3% or 4% annual returns – the same (or less) than if you had kept your money in cash!

So, for those MM101’ers out there, what are you doing with your assets while the financial world seems to be crumbling around you?

Horses are not for courses …

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You can find this post in this weeks Carnival of Personal Finance ….

As I mentioned yesterday, I drafted yesterday’s and today’s series of two posts before the latest round of stock market crashes … it seems that with all the money LEAVING the market at exactly the wrong time – i.e. the market bottom (or, close to!) – everybody is suddenly ‘anti-stocks’ … of course, as soon as we get towards the top of the next bull market all the pro stock / anti-real-estate people will come out of the woodwork again … and, the cycle repeats 😉

There is a great argument for investing in stocks and businesses: Warren Buffett has done it successfully for 40+ years turning himself into either the #1, #2, or #3 richest man in the world (depending upon what’s happening with Bill Gates and Carlos Slim on any given day).

Warren has shepherded his company, Berkshire Hathaway to compounded returns averaging 21% for the past 20+ years doing the one thing that us ‘mere mortals’ have difficulty doing: picking ONE horse and riding it all the way home.

What we seem to prefer to do is invest in Mutual Funds, the stock market equivalent to following all the advice of a ‘top tipster’ in the Saturday Racing Guide for either the horses or the dogs (how many of these newspaper ‘tipsters’ are rich, anyway? If not, how good are their tips, really?) …

… or, we plonk our money into Index Funds, which is the stock market equivalent to betting on every horse in the damn race!

By betting on every horse or – in this case – stock, we are aiming exactly for the average result … for the time frame that we manage to stick it out.

But, wouldn’t we get better results if we simply bought all the stocks in the Index Fund that are above average and ignored all the others? 😉

Simple and powerful strategy, no?

No!

We know that the logic is there: by simply NOT buying the dogs, and concentrating on the (even slight) favorites, we push the odds markedly in our favor.

But, when it comes to stocks – or horses and dogs for that matter – the form guide, tips, and other sources of ‘best buy’ information have proven to be highly unreliable.

The past is simply NO guide to the future, so we are left with either relying on others to pick some winners for us (they will lose us money, relatively speaking, because of the fees they charge, but at least we’ll feel good about having an ‘expert’ doing our guessing for us) or ‘playing the whole card’ i.e. buying the Index Funds …

… the net result is that we tend towards the average (returns) or worse … never better.

So, quite rightly, we talk about the stock market in terms of aiming towards (but, never quite getting there) long-term average returns.

Yet, the total opposite applies to real-estate:

The pro-stock / anti-real-estate movement [AJC: I am neither; I am simply pro-profit 😉 ] points to the average return from real-estate and compares it to the average return from stocks and says “aha … stocks are better!”

Putting aside the leverage, tax, income and other benefits of real-estate, the problem is that nobody buys the whole card when it comes to real-estate …

… there is no Index Fund for real-estate!

[AJC: well, there might be an artificial ‘index tracking’ ETF that does this … but do you know ANYBODY who’s ever bought it? 🙂 ]

You either buy a Mutual Fund (technically, called a REIT) that buys a selection of real-estate for you, based upon what some inside ‘expert’ predicts will do well (after fees, fees, fees) …

… or, you buy one or more properties yourself.

You see, unlike stocks, you NEVER buy the market, so comparing average returns is just plain dumb.

There is also one other key difference:

You DO know how to pick real-estate … you have at least some experience: you bought your own house, didn’t you?

You chose a ‘nice area’, close to schools, transport, in a nice neighborhood, didn’t you? And, if you still live with Mommy and Daddy, well, they bought a nice house, etc., etc. … right?

Gotcha!

Right there, you bought in the top half of the market in terms of growth … you just beat the (real-estate) market average!

When it comes to stocks, not one of us is Warren Buffett, so we ‘gamble’ on the performance of some market index that we don’t really understand …

… but, when it comes to real-estate, we are all like Warren Buffett – we all have the capability to pick the horse … oops, house … that will perform better than average.

And, even if we only get ‘the average’ return on our real-estate investment … we are going to do two things that we are never going to do with stocks:

1. We are going to leverage our investment – we will almost always take a mortgage on real-estate, but we will hardly ever borrow to buy an Index Fund

2. We are going to invest for the long-term – we will most likely stay in the real-estate investment for at least 7+ years, but we will most likely try and time the market (i.e. get scared and sell at the first sniff of a ‘down market’) if we buy stocks or Mutual Funds, thus absolutely killing our potential returns.

Still don’t believe me?

Then why is that conservative old banker prepared to back your real-estate acquisition with a couple of hundred grand?!

[AJC: at least until a couple of months ago … and, again in a couple of months time]

See if he’ll do the same when you want to go and visit your bookie … or stock broker 🙂

The time of your life?

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It’s interesting that I drafted this post 3 or 4 weeks ago, just before the current wave of stock market crashes hit us; now, of course, I am ‘preaching to the converted’ …

We spoke about getting – or beating – average returns from either stocks or real-estate, but David points out: what is an average financial return?

I agree with you about the number. However, think you should use real rates of returns not some theoretical possibility. For example your number on mutual funds is 9.5%. Well actual rates of returns for individuals investing in mutual funds averaged 4.4% over the last 20 years (Dalbar, Inc. Vanguard, etc.).

So, what are the average returns for the stock market?

First, define the ‘stock market’:

Do you mean the US market? International (if so, which country or countries)?

If US, do you mean large cap (the stocks with the largest total stock market value or ‘capitalization’)? Or, small cap? Or, do you mean stocks listed one one of the alternative exchanges such as NASDAQ?

Or, do you simply mean ‘all’ stocks listed on the New York stock exchange (NY Composite), or ‘only’ 5,000 stocks (Wilshire 5000) or perhaps ‘just’ 2,000 of the listed stocks (Russell 2000)?

If ‘large cap’ do you mean the top 500 stocks listed on the NY stock exchange (S&P 500) or perhaps the just the largest 30 (DJIA)?

The point here being that there is no such thing as an ‘average return for the stock market’ … you have to decide how you want to slice ‘n dice it first!

Semantics aside, let’s pick an Index – say, the S&P 500 – how has it performed?

Pick a Number!

Here is data taken from Econstats.com and summarized here into the average returns of the S&P 500 for various 10 years periods from 1989 – 1998 through to 1998 – 2007:

10 years too short?

OK, let’s find an online calculator and see how the S&P 500 performs over various 25 year periods:

In case you can’t read the diagram:

The best 25 year return (since 1871) for the S&P 500 was 17.6%, but the worst was 3.1% .. yah think that might make a difference if you your whole damn retirement strategy was hinging on achieving ‘average’ returns?!

BTW: If, you were ‘lucky’ enough to get the average, it was 9.4% …

… but, here’s the problem:

In ‘real life’ people don’t get the average!

Firstly, they rarely choose the S&P 500 … they usually gamble on just one or just a few Mutual Funds that used to perform better than the market (but, rarely ever do again).

Secondly, they pay fees that knock down returns by an average of 1.5%.

Thirdly, even if they do buy into a low cost Index Fund that tracks (say) the S&P 500, they actually rarely stay the course for the full 25 years (take another look at even the 10 year chart, above, if you want to see what that can do to the reliability of your returns).

Don’t believe me?

Check out the Dalbar Study

… then, scroll all the way back to the graph at the very top of this post:

Pictures really do tell more than a 1,000 words 🙂

Passion before money …

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I’m about to find out if you can make money online: click here to read the latest installment in my new online money-making adventure!

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I talk a lot on this site (and, on http://7m7y.com) about money being there to serve your Life …

… yet, we slave our lives away to the pursuit of money. Go figure!

So, when working out your Number – that ‘magic number’ that tells you if/when/how you will retire – it is my contention that you first need to start by understanding your Life’s Purpose.

It’s nice to see that somebody on the finance community agrees with me: George Kinder, author of The Seven Stages of Money Maturity!

In fact, George is a financial planner who is one of the early pioneers / practitioners of a form of financial planning called ‘Life Planning’ … where your financial plan is designed to support the life you want, not necessarily the life that you have.

I have provided some exercises to help you understand your Life’s Purpose, hence your Number; similarly, George Kinder poses three questions that he considers important in achieving a similar result (you may have seen these on Oprah):

1. “Assume you’ve got all the money you need – enough for the rest of your life. Maybe you’re not as rich as Warren Buffet, but you never have to worry about money for any reason. The question is, what would you do with it? How would you live? Feel free to let your imagination roam. What would you do with it all? Think for a moment, then write down the answer … ”

2. “You go to the doctor. The doctor discovers you have a rare illness. He says you’re going to feel perfectly fine for the rest of your life. But, he says the illness will prove fatal. The sorry outcome will occur sometime within five and ten years. It will be sudden. The question is, now that you know that your life will be over in five years, how would you live it? What would you do?”

3. “This question will sound a bit like the previous question, but it’s different: It starts the same way. You go to the doctor. You’re feeling perfectly healthy. And again the doctor says you have a serious illness. But then the doctor says, ‘You only have 24 hours to live.’ So, what did you miss? Who did you not get to be? What did you not get to do?”

Of all these questions, obviously the last is the key … and it is the purpose of the Rear Deck Speech – designed to make you think past ‘things’ and to the more deep/meaningful aspects of your ideal life.

These questions, however, will help you if you’ve been struggling with the Finding Your Life’s Purpose exercises that I provided …

The fractal market …

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What does this fern leaf and the stock market have in common?

Surprisingly, a lot!

For a start, this is not a drawing or photo of a real leaf … it’s a actually a computer-generated image derived from just a few short lines of computer code.

It’s a ‘fractal image’ – a branch of mathematics that uses randomness (with many similarities to ‘chaos theory’) to describe natural objects so that they look ‘real’ to the naked eye … again, using only a very simple mathematical formula!

The two most interesting things about fractals:

1. They are easy to generate – they are based upon replication of a very simple formula, over and over again. Order-in-Randomness takes care of the rest

2. As you scale up or down the picture looks remarkably similar ….. take the leaf to the bottom right and blow it up to full-size and you will see something very similar to this original image

What does this have to do with the stock market? Well take a look at the following two graphs:

These both indicate movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average; what’s interesting isn’t the direction … it’s the shape …. they both indicate a random series of up/down movements in a general direction (that, too, seems to change randomly).

The interesting thing about these charts is that they are the same chart (almost)!

One is a 1 year view of the Dow Jones, the other a 3 year view (it should be easy to work out which is which!) …

… you see, as the IBM scientist who ‘founded’ fractal geometry (well, actually revived … it was ‘discovered’ in the late 19th century by a scientist named Julia) in the 80’s discovered, the stock market is fractal.

While the movement is seemingly random, each piece of market movement when enlarged looks very similar to the larger scale movements … so we have up/down movement in the stock market at every scale: daily, weekly, monthly, annually that actually behave quite similarly.

The frustrating thing is this: chaos theory abounds.

Chaos theory says that when systems become complex, a very small apparent change in one variable (i.e. number) can suddenly have a HUGE change on the whole.

It’s why they say that a butterfly flapping its wings in Japan can cause a hurricane in Louisiana …

You can’t think of a system (except in Nature) more complex than the stock market: thousands of stocks make up a market … each one is a real-live business generating revenue, controlling costs, dealing with market/economic/government changes on a daily, or even minute-by-minute basis.

The whole shebang can move up … down … or sideways. But, within each movement is the movement of each company’s stock. The price of each individual stock is fixed by the investors: are they net buyers or sellers in this micro-second (that’s how fast the stock exchange moves)?

Suddenly, one mutual fund executes it’s order to sell Company A and the effect is minimal, either on that company’s stock or on the market. But, on another day a ‘perfect storm’ arises (an announcement by the feds of a change in interest-rates; a war in the Gulf erupts; etc.) and that same sell-off triggers a panic.

Who can predict it?

Nobody … and, that’s the point … look at the charts: do you see anything that looks remotely predictable in that lot?

Do you want to bet your financial future on where the stock market is heading, even for the next 3 years?

I don’t … but, I do know that while the market can (and, does) move dramatically & randomly, there is an underlying force driving it relentlessly upwards:

The companies that make up the market are producing widgets, and inflation is always making the price of widgets go up/up/up (with an occasional, but only short-term pull-back) inevitably pushing their profits (hence stock price) along with it … where inflation goes, the stock market will surely follow … eventually.

But, who can say exactly when?!

So always be a buyer and holder … never a seller be.

Your Number

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Nowadays, somebody only need to write “The” and “Number” next to each other and we automatically know what it means: the amount that you need in your nest-egg so that you can finally throw off those corporate shackles and ‘retire’ …

… well, do anything other than ‘work’ for your daily crust.

The only problem is that nobody tells you how to find The Number!

I should know, I read books on the subject and they all focus on rubbish like: “multiply 75% of your pre-retirement’ salary by 13”.

Which has some obvious problems:

1. How do I know what my pre-retirement salary will be?

2. What if I spend more/less in retirement than when I was working?

3. How will I know my money will last?

The reality is that – for most people – there is (and should be) a total disconnect between how you make your fortune and how you spend it!

In other words, just because you earn $x before you retire, it doesn’t mean that you will spend 75% of $x to 125% of $x (as most financial authors assume) in retirement.

So, I came with my own method – and, it worked for me!

Here’s how:

1. Complete a simple spreadsheet of your major (non-investment) personal purchases, income, and living expenses now and over the next 1, 5, 10, and 20 years. Don’t forget to apply the Inflation Adjustment Factors!

2. To help I have listed the typical expenditures of a $100,000 a year lifestyle, a $250,000 a year lifestyle, and a $550,000 a year lifestyle. These should provide some reference points to calculate your own future living expenses.

3. Use the spreadsheet to calculate Your Number and Your Date.

That’s it!

… and, I’m betting that it won’t even resemble your expected final salary – in fact, I’m betting that the number is so damn big’n’scary that you won’t even get there just on any typical salary – even with your 401k maxed 😉