Retirement Accounts: 7 Case Studies

retirees7Everybody has a slightly (some – like me – dramatically) differing view on the whole subject of 401K’s, ROTH IRA’s, and other forms of so-called ‘retirement accounts’.

If you are in a job, then it might be an easy decision: pull the trigger on maximum withdrawals from your salary and attract the generous employer match. Or, is it?

But, if you are self-employed – or, you have more flexibility in how you choose to handle your retirement accounts than the typical employee – then it becomes a bit more confusing: do you outsource or self-manage? Do you try and save your tax now (on deposits) or in the future (on your withdrawals)? Do you even bother …. ?

Well, if you are still confused, let these 7 ‘case studies’ from our 7 Millionaires … In Training! ‘grand experiment’ guide you:

Scott – Not everybody chooses to have a 401k – or, any type of retirement account, for that matter – and some even do it because they feel that they have an even better ‘retirement plan’. Scott is one such example … what do you think? Is he doing the right thing?

Lee – Is at (or past) typical retirement age for most of us. He thinks that he has made some (a lot?) of mistakes with his finances, yet he at least has some money put aside. But, it’s not enough to meet his goals … and, is it really enough to live off?

Josh – On the other end of the age/work scale is Josh, who still has the ‘luxury’ of living at home with his folks: free rent = more to save (or spend?). Should Josh even be saving in a system that doesn’t allow him free’n’clear access to his money until he is 3 times his current age? And, should Josh be using his ‘retirement account’ in the Grand Casino that is the Options Market?

Ryan – Is a highly paid rep. for medical equipment with some ideas of his own. He is exploring the options as to whether he should be investing INSIDE his 401k etc. or OUTSIDE, both for him and/or his wife. What advice could you give him?

Diane – Is currently assessing her options; while she does so, she is drawing down on her retirement account. Should she take the penalties and pay down debt and/or continue to draw down her living expenses?

Mark – The title of his post is 201k in reference to the beating that the stock market has given it recently, but Mark has a long-term view; it seems to me that he hopes to reach a large Number through investments, etc. and leave his retirement accounts simmering along nicely … if the meat’n’potatoes of his Wealth Strategy don’t pan out, then perhaps he’ll have a nice hot financial stew waiting for him when he reaches 60?

Jeff – Here is an example of a reasonably well-salaried government employee who has one foot in each camp: his Grandpappy once told him to invest in his 401k so that he does, as well as have a couple of residential properties. How much money – in today’s dollars – does a high-saving guy expect to accumulate by the time he reaches 60? Is it worth the wait?

You be the judge … be sure to read the comments and add some of your own 🙂

Another way to mitigate risk?

riskquadrant

Say that you’re a venture capitalist who has found some semi-reliable way of categorizing entrepreneurs on their capacity to undertake action with / without first doing a lot of research … which group in the above matrix would you be most likely to back (assuming that they all come to you with equally good ideas, etc., etc.)?

Before I share my views, I want to quickly talk about risk: you see, we have some readers who, I believe, are overly concerned with risk …

… as it happens, I am (by nature) one of them, struggling to overcome my own ‘addiction to fear‘. I’ve done OK, but not without some personal psychological ‘cost’ along the way … nothing serious, just a few extra grey hairs … maybe 10 or 20 years off my life … the usual 😉

One of the ways to avoid risk, course, is to do some research before you take irrevocable action; it’s the old proverb:

Look before you leap!

newcokeComing from my famous 20/20 hindsight, though, I can say that this an overblown theory. The reality is that too much research is just as dangerous as not enough … perhaps more so.

Let me explain …

Let’s say you take on a project and despite years of research before you plunge into it, it fails!

Can’t happen?

I have only two words for you: New Coke 😛

So, you’re out …

Now, let’s look at somebody a bit more ‘gung ho’ … they jump into one project after another, fail early and failing often … but, in just about the time that it took for you to jump into (and crash back out of) your Well Researched Project they have finally struck gold (after failing 4 times) … 5 times lucky 🙂

Contrived example?

Perhaps not as much as you might think …

… you see, venture capitalists work on the Power of 10 Formula; for every 10 businesses that they fund:

  • 7 Fail, causing them to lose their entire investment
  • 2 return their initial investment, nothing more
  • 1 makes it all worthwhile

Despite all their research, VC’s can’t tell in advance which of these businesses would succeed (or, they wouldn’t bother investing in the other nine, d’oh!). What ‘saves’ the VC is action … they act/fail/act/fail …. act/succeed.

So, if we look at people on a scale (in the chart above) of how much  research they tend to do in advance of action (or, otherwise), I would much rather back the guys in II over the guys in III; I would almost be prepared to back the guys in II over the guys in IV simply because of their capacity to implement more ideas sooner … in my book, trial and error in the real world produces faster results than any form of theoretical research.

What’s the takeaway?

Get started in something that has a low set-up cost and you can get into the market (and, out of again) quickly … if it succeeds, more power to you. If it fails (as it probably will) you can dust yourself off and try/try again.

Internet businesses are ideal ….

A strange conjunction of posts …

I was skimming through the alltop.com listings of personal finance blog titles as I do from time to time, when I came across these two posts  on Ranjan Varma’s blog:

Timing the Market is Nonsense

and

Quantum Gold Fund Gives 29.7% Return

I don’t know about you, but I rolled on the floor laughing … if you don’t see anything ‘wrong’ with the juxtaposition of these two headlines you’re wasting your time reading my blog 😛

But, it’s the first article – on market timing – that I want to talk about … because there’s an interesting (and very short) ‘slide show’ embedded in it that I want you to see:

http://www.slideshare.net/thinkingcarl/average-is-not-normal-presentation?type=presentation

There are two points that the slideshow ‘author’ makes that I want to discuss here …

Average is Not Normal

The creator of the slide show suggests that in the last 80 years the stock market has “averaged” a 10% return, but in only 2 of those years has it actually returned anywhere near 10%

picture-11

Timing is Everything

The slide show creator then uses that data to (erroneously, in my opinion) reason that timing in the stock market is actually critical … for example, would you want to start investing here?

picture-12

or, here?

picture-2

So, where would you rather invest? Come on, be honest?

Before I tell you where I would invest, let me tell you where the real big bucks are to be made …

… the real money is to be made in the second chart; investing at the peak of the market!

But, it only works if you can recognize the peak:

Jesse Livermore, the legendary trader of the 20’s and 30’s reportedly made and lost a fortune 4 times before he (understandably) blew his own head off. One of his greatest profits came when he SHORTED the market on the day of the famous stock market crash that heralded the beginning of the Great Depression. We’re talking so much money that the President of the USA called him to beg him to stop because he was singlehandedly making the market crash worse!

Given that I’m not Jesse (and, neither are you) my answer is:

I don’t care …

… you see, whether the curve is up in the beginning, smooth all the way, ziggy zaggy every which way in the middle, I only care what my starting and ending numbers are. And, what I do know is that, over a 30 year period (based upon ANY continuous 30 year period starting on any day that you care to name in the past 75 or so years … INCLUDING purchasing on the day before the greatest stock market crash in history … the one that saw the beginning of the Great Depression), the stock market will NOT give me less than an 8.5% return.

So, I will only buy stocks for 30 years as an investment (or less, if I feel like gambling) … or 20 years, if I only need a ‘guaranteed’ 4% return …

If the market happens to ziggy zaggy up in the right ways, and I’m lucky enough to get somewhere near the averages, well, there’ll be some extremely happy charities and surviving family when I die 😉

The Frugal Billionaire

scrooge-35232scrooge1I just love people who pursue frugality for frugality’s sake … like it’s an end, rather than a means to an end.

For example, take this really interesting post on Grad Money Matters where he points to a bunch of rich old men who live like misers:

Some of the world’s wealthiest people … also happen to be some of the most frugal.

  • Despite having a net worth of $62 billion and being the world’s richest man, famously frugal investor Warren Buffett still lives in the same home he bought for nearly $31,500 some 50 years ago.
  • John Caudwell used to ride his bike 14 miles to work everyday and cut his own hair because he didn’t want to be bothered going to the barber despite having amassed a fortune of over $2.2 billion. Caudwell also purchased all of his clothing off the rack at British retailer Marks & Spencer.
  • Jim Walton, member of America’s richest family and Wal-Mart scion, reportedly drives a 14-year-old Dodge Dakota despite having a net worth of $16.4 billion.
  • Retail Tycoon Frederik Meijer, worth $2 billion is known to drive cars with very high MPG and prefers to only stay in budget motels.
  • Gene Burd, a 76-year-old journalism professor at the University of Texas has donated over a million dollars to financial foundations but walks 6 miles to work everyday, lives in a very tiny apartment, picks up pennies on the ground, and wears shoes that he found in the trash.
  • Ingvar Kamprad built a $33 billion fortune after founding Ikea but the Swedish tycoon drives a 15-year-old Volvo, tries to avoid wearing suits, and flies coach. It’s also said (surprise, surprise) that Kamprad furnishes his home entirely with affordable Ikea furniture.
  • Indian billionaire Azim Premji worth upwards of $17.1 billion drives a Toyota Corolla and stays in the company guesthouse rather than 5-star hotels when he’s traveling on business. At a lunch honoring his son’s wedding he even served the food on paper plates.
  • We would be amiss to not mention some of the highest earning dead celebrities who are perhaps the most frugal of this list due to their inability to spend 🙂 For example, top earning dead musician, Kurt Cobain made about $50 million last year. Elvis Presley made $42 million despite having died in 1977 and, in third place, Peanuts creator Charles M. Schulz earnings were about $35 million.

*About the author: This list was compiled by Lewis Bennett, writer for an Individual Voluntary Arrangement (IVA) site.

I have a word to describe this kind of behavior: sick.

You need to ask yourself two questions:

1. Did these people become rich solely because they were frugal?

2. Is their current level of frugality sensible, given their net worth?

There’s no doubt in my mind that you will NOT become rich unless you learn how to delay gratification, but that is not the same as NO gratification. If you can afford to spend on a reasonable lifestyle and you choose not to, you MAY be just as ‘sick’ as the person who lives beyond their means and spends uncontrollably.

On the other hand, if you simply have no interest in the ‘trappings’ of life, that’s entirely a different matter … but, one then wonders why you bother with the whole “let’s get rich” thing, anyway?

But, here’s what I suspect really happens:

1. Some rich people are so driven by the process of making money that they never know when to stop … some take one step, one chance, one risk too many and lose their money, while others just keep going on and on and on, driving themselves – and, their families – to an early grave. There are exceptions of course: those like Warren Buffett who so enjoy what they are doing that they would be doing it even if they were not paid.

The ‘antidote’ is to work out your Life’s Purpose and if it’s to make money … then go until you drop! If not, pursue the financial path until you have acquired enough money to live your Life’s TRUE Purpose, then stop … and, live!

2. Some learn the lesson early that you need to delay gratification and live frugally if you want to avoid spending all the fruits of your labor (rather than reinvesting in your future) but become so driven by the process of saving money that they never know when to stop …

… in my opinion, there’s NO lesson to be learned from a multi-millionaire or billionaire who lives like a miser … other than they are great counterpoint to those billionaires who live overly and ridiculously flamboyantly.

To me the ‘right’ path is simple: live comfortably within your means … whether that is a $50k a year lifestyle or a $50 million a year sustainable one.

Real Cashflow, Fake Cashflow – Part IV

layformula

For new readers: Do NOT APPLY … this was my 2009 April Fools Day Joke 🙂

Thanks everyone for your comments and support for the first money-making opportunity that I have ever announced on this blog! I wanted my loyal readers to have first opportunity. Sure, it’s a bit unusual (horse racing), but it comes from a trusted source … and, we never know where the next opportunity will come from 🙂

However, Expressions of Interest have now CLOSED!

But, stand by as there will be a follow up post announcing how The System works and what it means for you next Thursday …
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This is the fourth – and, final – installment of our series on the three types of Positive Cashflow Real Estate:

1. Tax Cashflow

2. Fake Cashflow

3. Real Cashflow

After introducing Tax Cashflow “cleverly designed to make Negatively Geared real-estate look like a good deal”) we spoke about manipulating the amount of deposit that you put into a property to ‘force’ it to produce a kind of ‘Fake’ Positive Cashflow.

This kind of cashflow comes at the expense of: (a) cash – you are typically forced to put in a lot – and, (b) returns: typically, the more cash you put into an investment, the lower its return.

So, what is the secret? Simple, it’s to look for a property that produces …

Real Cashflow

For some unknown/stupid reason, we look at property exactly the wrong way around:

We let the bank and public opinion of the day tell us how much capital (i.e. deposit) to put in; then we look for the greatest tax benefits; then …

… we buy!

Of course, there is no ‘secret’ to Positive Cashflow Real-Estate at all: we should simply ALWAYS treat ANY property acquisition as though it were a business … and, we would NEVER buy a business that needs to be manipulated in order to make money:

First, it must produce cash

then we can ‘tweak’ the income statement and balance sheet for greater tax benefits and return on capital.

It’s exactly the same with property; the problem is that we:

(a) Buy in the wrong market – we buy when everybody else is buying and property is too expensive, and

(b) Buy in the wrong sector – we buy what everybody else is buying – residential real-estate, which rarely produces positive cashflow … and, when it does, it’s usually a ‘dog’ when it comes to appreciation.

So, here is the real 7million7years Patented Positive Cashflow System:

1. Look for real-estate that will produce Real Positive Cashflow with a reasonable deposit (say, 10% – 35%); typically, this will be commercial real-estate … BUT, in the current market (low prices and low interest rates) you will probably find some residential real-estate nuggets if you look hard enough. Just don’t forget to lock in the interest rate, or you may find your diamond turning into a lump of coal as interest rates rise again.

2. Then, tweak the deposit that you actually put in according to the Fake Cashflow return that you want to get: in the Making Money 201 wealth accumulation phase, I recommend putting in ‘just enough’ deposit to break-even (perhaps with a buffer for contingencies, unless you have the spare income to cover these elsewhere) and then using you spare cash to buy another!

3. Then, take every tax deduction that you can get! Accumulate the extra Tax Cashflow that you get until you have enough accumulated to put down as a deposit on another property.

If you buy right … then manage your capital and tax right … you will have a large and Positive Cashflow real-estate portfolio before you can say “negative cashflow sucks lemons”.

If you can’t find one now, you ain’t looking hard enough 😉

Tax implications of converting your home to a rental …

layformula

This is your last chance to take part in a foolproof money-making scheme … even if you have NEVER bet on a horse in your life, I personally GUARANTEE that this System (previously known as ‘Lay Formula’) WILL work for you! If you do want to take part in this once in a lifetime opportunity, read yesterday’s post here and register your interest NOW.

Expressions of interest close in 24 Hours!
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deathtaxes

Despite the length of this title, today’s post will be really short … because I have NOTHING to add on the subject of taxes. They are something to be paid – or not paid – depending on the advice of a QUALIFIED tax practitioner (accountant and/or attorney) in the area that you are interested.

Personally, I have only a slight hiccup in signing tax checks for over $1 Million (as I have for the last 2 tax years in a row) because it means that I have made a TON more money 🙂

… and, I rely totally on good advice; but, I pay for conservative, specialist opinion where necessary.

However, I have noticed that I number of my readers (and contributors) have recently converted their own residences into rentals, so I thought that I should perform a Reader Service by pointing you directly towards the excellent Tax Tips Blog so that you can read some excellent advice, straight from the “horse’s mouth”:

http://glgcpa.com/blog/2009/02/18/convert-personal-residence-to-rental/

Disclaimer: I have NO IDEA whether this is good, bad or indifferent advice … that’s what your accountant is for! 🙂

But, I would like your opinion

Exciting Money Making Opportunity!

I’m taking a break from my normal postings today to announce a ‘secret’ project that I have been working on with my close friend, and horse racing phenom, Derren Brown.

A few months ago, he unveiled in the United Kingdom a foolproof horse-racing system that has been making him … and subscribers … millions of pounds. This is absolutely on the level as the above video shows [if clicking on the above embedded video doesn’t work, click this link instead] … the video has not been ‘tweaked’ and all horses WERE selected in advance using The System.

I am excited to be able to say that I have acquired SOLE RIGHTS to the package WORLDWIDE (outside of the USA) and am looking for a limited number of Partners to put up $2,500 capital each to test the system in various jurisdictions (including the USA) … preliminary tests have shown The System to be as FOOLPROOF here as it has been in the UK.

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If you are interested in joining me in this LEGITIMATE OPPORTUNITY … please watch the above video, then register your interest in the comments section below (I can pick up your e-mail address from there). YOU MUST DO THIS WITHIN 48 HOURS.

This IS the only ‘get rich quick’ scheme that I know that is PROVEN to work, which is why I am not only endorsing it, but financially backing all of those smart enough and brave enough to put up a small part of their own cash ….

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That’s it … expressions of interest close in 48 hours. I personally stand behind the effectiveness of The System!

AJC.

Fluctuations? Well, fluc you, too …

I am pleased to say that I have readers from all around the world, which brings up some interesting problems and opportunities that purely US domestic investors may not need to think about too much.

For example, take Arkhom from Thailand who asks:

Just wondering, and this is a very simplistic view, that altho US stocks are definitely cheap in the long term, wouldn’t the value of US dollar also expected to decline sharply also in the long term? The USD view is conventional wisdom, with all that money being pumped/created for rescues and with current strength due to flight to safety in US treasuries. If that’s the case, it would most probably take the edge off the returns for US investment? Otherwise, in your case, wouldn’t it be more prudent to look for long term investments in, say, Australia?

I mentioned that I was having a little argument of sorts with my wife as to the best place to invest the little bit of cash that we received upon the sale of my Maserati in the US. Since we currently maintain two homes: one in the US and one in Australia, we have a unique opportunity to decide where to ‘park’ our money.

Firstly, let me explain why this is usually not a huge consideration for most small investors:

– If you are US-based, then exchange rate movements only matter indirectly.

By that I mean that the value of US businesses – hence stock prices – don’t necessarily jump directly with exchange rate movements (unless the company is primarily invested overseas, or derives the bulk of its revenues from import/export). But, logic tells me that all businesses are eventually affected … they all buy goods, equipment, and/or components, inevitably some of which comes from overseas.

A strong US dollar makes these cheaper and a weak dollar, more expensive … but, the effects on that company’s stock price are generally slower as they must first flow via the company’s profit and loss statement.

– If you are an overseas-based long-term investor then exchange rate movements may have less effect than you at first intuitively expect.

The reason is that your money may flow into the US (if you are in, say, Thailand), but must must eventually flow back out again so that you can spend the money! So, it is really the long-term CHANGE in the exchange rate that affects you.

– For an investor who lives in two economies (like us), then we can earn and spend money wherever we like and move funds as necessary between the two economies … so, we can make earning and spending decisions independently of each other.

For example, to buy the Maserati we moved funds from Australia to the US at roughly 80 cents in the dollar; and now that the vehicle is sold we can move it back at approx. 66% cents to the dollar, or a ‘net gain’ of 15% or so.

The two questions then become:

1. Can we gain more than 15% over the next 12 months by investing in the US instead of moving the funds to Aus and investing there, and

2. Does it really matter? Where do we intend to SPEND the money?

The answers to these questions usually lead me to: it doesn’t much matter!

In theory, yes, but in practice, no …

You see, if you move the money to invest and move it back to spend, then you are not only gambling on the current currency exchange conditions being favorable, but also the future ones being equally favorable. It’s hard enough to make such predictions today, let alone tomorrow!

Now, exchange rate fluctuations ARE very important for a special class of investor … but, not for the average investor unless the exchange rates are totally out of whack … but, who’s to say where the Aus v US dollar really is set to lie over the next 20 years?

Can you tell me with any degree of certainty?

I can’t tell you … so, all I need to really think about right now is where do I really want to spend my money today, tomorrow, and in 20 years time 🙂

Spending your Net Worth

Currently, over at the 7 Millionaires … In Training! ‘grand experiment’ we have been looking at the 7MIT’s cars and their attitudes, thereof.

I introduced them to the 5% Cars + Other Possessions Rule, which Jeff seems to have forgotten covers all of your possessions outside of your home … not just your car:

It seems like all you’d need to do is wait a bit and eventually your car will depreciate enough to be under 5%.

Does anyone really count their cars as part of their net worth? I view them more as a disposable item and not something that I try and calculate my net worth with.

But, Jeff does touch on an interesting ‘quirk’ of cars and other possessions that is different to what generally happens with houses and investments: they go DOWN in value over time.

This depreciation is something that we can take advantage of …

… you see, we can use the fact that our Net Worth should be increasing – while these other items are probably decreasing – to allow us to go shopping every few years or so!

[AJC: But, don’t forget to always pay CASH!]

Think about it, if 75% of our Net Worth is in investments (this is called your Investment Net Worth … it does NOT include your house, cars, and other cr*p that you may have lying around) and 20% is in your house and 5% in your cars/possessions, then you may have a Net Worth IQ asset column that looks like this:

Investments: $75,000 (75%)

House Equity: $20,000 (20%)

Cars: $2,500 (2.5%)

Other Possessions: $2,500 (2.5%)

But, in 3 years time – assuming a ‘normal’ market (and, who can really assume anything these days?!), it might look something like this:

Investments: $105,000 (80%)

House Equity: $25,000 (18%)

Cars: $1,250 (1%)

Other Possessions: $1,250 (1%)

Which allows you a number of options:

a) Pay down some of your mortgage (up to $2,500) to bring your house back to the maximum equity that these rules ‘allow’, or

b) Buy a newer car or some more cr*p (up to $2,500) to reward yourself for your good work, or

c) Decide to become rich(er), quick(er) by realizing that the rules were designed to have a MINIMUM of 75% of your Net Worth in investments … but, there’s nothing wrong with investing more 🙂

d) Some sensible combination of any/all of the above

I like (d) … to be totally honest, I don’t go for the overly-frugal nonsense: once I reach a financial milestone, I see nothing wrong with allowing myself a little enjoyment … that’s why I’m sitting back on my hammock right now with a Pina Colada and enjoying the Aussie sunshine ….

… regardless of how YOU choose to look at it, when you have a set of guidelines that you can follow, doesn’t it make it easy to at least see what the choices are?

Real Cashflow, Fake Cashflow – Part III

This is the third installment of our series on the three types of Positive Cashflow Real Estate:

1. Tax Cashflow

2. Fake Cashflow

3. Real Cashflow

Last week we discussed the first of these (Tax Cashflow), cleverly designed to make Negatively Geared real-estate look like a good deal. As I said:

By allowing you to pay less personal income tax, the promoters of these schemes will show you that the property can pay it’s own way (Neutrally Cashflow or Neutrally Gear) or even Positive Cashflow!

Unfortunately, it’s all on paper … and, it relies on you earning a high income … and, will probably only work for one or two properties because you won’t have enough personal tax to ‘save’ for more properties than that.

Today, I will introduce you to a simple, but powerful concept that will allow you to take any piece of real-estate and create positive cashflow … it’s so simple, you’ll wonder why you didn’t think of it sooner 🙂 But, you’ll quickly see why I call it …

Fake Cashflow

If you want a property to produce positive cashflow without doing a lot of work and research, use the 7million7years Patented Positive Cashflow Formula:

Pay Cash!

Now, this isn’t a stupid idea, it’s actually a valuable – and, under-appreciated [AJC: pun intended] – Making Money 301 wealth-preservation strategy … and, it works because it eliminates a (actually, usually THE) major expense on your investment property: mortgage interest.

Without interest, the chances are that your property will produce enough rental income to cover vacancies, repairs & maintenance and other typical costs, yet still produce a very healthy profit … perhaps even a livable income for a MM301 ‘retiree’.

The problem, of course, is that the rest of us – those still trying to accumulate wealth – (a) don’t have enough cash to buy much (any?) real-estate outright, and (b) real-estate’s growth is typically just around inflation-to-6.5% (depending upon who you believe) … hardly earth-shattering.

But, we don’t HAVE to pay cash for a property to produce this kind of positive cashflow return, we just have to decide how much cash to put in … as best explained by Shafer Fincancial in a comment to a recent post:

Here is how it works. Most folks, including myself, advise re investors to make their properties cash flow for safety (comparing your costs with the rents received). So if one person can get a loan for 7% and the other can only get a loan for 9% in order to make it cash flow, the later will have to put down more capital (down payment). If you are leveraged at 80% LTV and a property cash flows you only have to tie up that 20% capital. However, if you are having to put down 25% to make the property cash flow because of a high interest rate on the loan then you have 5% more capital tied up in the property for the same capital appreciation.

$100,000 property
Person A cash flows with $20,000 down payment
Person B cash flows with a $25,000 down payment

Think about it:

You put 0% down and you have a negatively-geared ‘dog’ … and, if enough people do it, a future real-estate crash (a.k.a. ‘credit crunch’)  on your hands.

You put 100% down and you have a positively-geared ‘retirement investment’ that ‘only’ grows with inflation (unlike CD’s – which ONLY provide some income).

… surely, there is a ‘break-even’ point somewhere between the two, where the property will cashflow positive, but you only have to put in a deposit and you can borrow the rest from a bank like a ‘normal person’?

Yes there is, and we ‘twist’ the Shafer Financial example (he was talking about the ‘cost’ of different interest rates) to illustrate the point very nicely: Property B may be a ‘dog’ with a 20% down payment @ 9% interest, but if you just up it to a 25% down payment also at 9% interest, you lower your monthly mortgage payment just enough to make it break-even on a monthly (or yearly) basis, or even cashflow positive.

So, fiddle the numbers on a spreadsheet (with the help of your accountant, if necessary – they LOVE this kind of stuff!) and you will find the break-even point (i.e. the point where the property JUST starts to cashflow positive) and if you can afford the deposit, perhaps you have a ‘winner’?! 😉

But, it comes at a ‘cost’ or two:

1. You need to come up with a bigger deposit … which, means that you may not be able to buy as big/many properties as you like, and

2. The more money you put in, the lower your overall return (annual compound growth rate); again, Shafer Financial explains nicely:

The interest rate on mortgage debt on investment property does curtail capital appreciation …

$100,000 property
Person A cash flows with $20,000 down payment
Person B cash flows with a $25,000 down payment

Property appreciates 3% for five years. Aproximiate value of $116K.
For simplicity stake; No excess cash flow for five years (unlikely)
No tax advantages.

Person A ROI= 12.47%
Person B ROI= 10.4%

Having to put that extra $5K down to make the property cash flow cost you 2% in the return department. Note that the property only appreciated 3% per year, yet the rates of return were 10% and 12%!

Now in the real world you must account for the cash flow over time and the tax advantages to compute ROI. But this is a perfect example of how interest rates effect return. Also, note that the higher the leverage (above 75% LTV for most folks) the higher the interest rate is likely to go. So, there is usually a break even point for leverage/cash flow that takes into consideration the interest rate.

This is that ‘leverage’ thing that makes real-estate such a wonderful investment, producing returns (for well-selected / purchased real-estate) well above the naysayers moans that real-estate only grows “according to inflation” or “6.5% a year” (depending upon who you believe).

So, the problem with Fake Cashflow is that – while we can ‘force’ a Positive Cashflow out of almost any piece of real-estate by simply putting more of our own cash in it up front – it tends to reduce leverage, hence reduce our overall returns. This is why I call it ‘Fake Cashflow’ …

There has to be a solution … and there is: see you in the final installment in this series, where I show you how to find ‘Real Cashflow’ 🙂