Index Funds or ETF's … you choose …

For those of you trying to ramp up your long-term savings plans, Index Funds and ETF’s offer two great alternatives to CD’s and savings accounts … and a MUCH better alternative than typical Mutual Funds (due to lower costs and similar or even better results).

But, don’t kid yourself, these are savings plans, not Investment plans (there is a difference) …

But, if you are committed to saving rather than investing, you have CHOICES.

Specifically, you can now choose between two very low cost options: Vanguard Index Fund (or similar) or ‘Spider’ ETF (or similar).

There was a great post on The Simple Dollar that I think summarized the differences very neatly:

An ETF is an exchange traded fund … a specific example is the Spider ETF, which matches the S&P 500 in much the same way that the Vanguard 500 does.However, in the end, they’re still not the best deal, as pointed out by this Forbes article.

The Simple Dollar post also talks about what to do while you are saving for your entry fee (unlike a bank, you can’t just plonk down $50 every time you want to buy a few shares in the fund) ….

…. if you are in serious saving mode, why don’t you take a read?

But, why Index Funds or whole-of-market ETF’s in the first place, why not mutual funds?

For answers to these questions, I usually try and go straight to the ‘top’ …

… to the greatest expert in that field that I can find. And, in the field of stock investing there is no better advice than that given by the World’s Greatest Investor himself, Warren Buffet, who once said:

The “know-nothing investor” should both own a large number of equities and space out his purchases. By periodically investing in an index fund, for example, the know-nothing investor can actually out-perform most investment professionals. [W. E. Buffett - 1993]

Who would argue with the World’s Richest Man?

Important Note: 7million7dollars does NOT currently invest in any Index Funds, Mutual Funds, or other “Packaged Investment Products” … apparently, he is just a (rich) product of the Stone Age

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The greatest advice from the Oracle of Omaha

As the latest in my ‘videos on sundays’ series, I offer some advice from the man billed as the ‘greatest investor who ever lived’.

 In 7 minutes you will have ALL of Warren Buffet’s secrets

… maybe not, but you WILL have some insights into his life (the first three minutes) followed by some of the best investing advice that I have seen.

Warning: some of these slides flash across your screen so fast that you will have trouble following them, so pay attention to the very last two slides if you are not an expert investor:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=iW1eg9p5wq4

BUT …

If you are a student of investing, have a long-term view and are willing to dedicate some time and effort, take note that Warren offers exactly the opposite advice for you …

Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.
Warren Buffett

… he also points to this time in history as being possibly a great time to make your fortune:

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.
Warren Buffett

I see a lot of doom and gloom … I bet that Warren Buffet is gearing up for something big …

What are you doing right now?

The 4-step, never-fail plan to making a fortune in real estate …

There is a lot of BAD stuff written about real estate and a little bit of GOOD stuff … start by finding and reading some of these good books (google “John T Reed” and see which books he recommends and which ones he pans).

The truth is that most people MAKE money through a business, then KEEP money by investing in real estate.

If you can’t (or won’t) start a business (even on the side) then you can at least accelerate your LIFE SAVINGS PLAN by buying and holding income-producing real-estate.

Right now, it’s very simple:

1. If you don’t yet own your own home (but would like to) BUY one now and LOCK in the interest for 30 years.

Why?

Home prices are relatively cheap (if you think they will get cheaper then wait a little longer … if you’re not SURE they will get cheaper, buy now).

Money is cheap – mortgage rates are probably 2% lower than they will be by 2009 or 2010.

You want to keep buying that cheap money for as long as possible …

… but, only IF you are prepared to take the next step, which is to …

2. Assess the increased / excess equity (what your house is worth – what you still owe) in your house yearly and use that excess equity to buy another as soon as you can scrape up a reasonable deposit (20% if you are conservative).

3. Lock in the interest rates for 30 years; rent the property out; keep raising rents; reassess the value of all of your properties yearly.

4. Repeat until Rich!

Now, this will take 10 to 30 years … to accelerate: start that little (or big) side-business and use the excess cash-flow to buy more investment properties rather than Porsches!

Simple … and, you couldn’t be starting at a better time in history.

Will low interest rates and inflation eat up the interest the bank pays you on your CD's?

Absolutely!

Here’s how to think about banks and cash … consider your time-frame first:

SHORT TERM

If you are keeping your money in the bank to save for something important (hopefully, for a deposit on an income-producing property?) over the next few months or two or three years, then don’t be overly-concerned about the interest rate or inflation. I keep a HUGE amount in the bank right now because I sold out of some investments and am staying ‘in cash’ for a short time through the current market.

MEDIUM TERM

If you have a large’ish sum that you are building up for something major in say 3 to 5 years, then a better ‘savings account’ would be a low cost Index Fund … as you save enough to meet the minimum investment criteria, drop it in … just be prepared to hold for at least the MEDIUM TERM

LONG TERM

If you are, say, 7 to 70 years before retirement, you in the investment mode of your life, and (a) are unlikely to have your cash in the bank, and (b) are crazy if you do! Over 7 or more years, yes, ridiculously low investment returns (and, to a lesser extent inflation) will eat your future alive! Put your money into any mix of Index Funds, Business Opportunities, Real-Estate Investments, Direct Stock Investments – keep away from Mutual Funds – as suits your personality profile and desire to get rich vs merely keep up with the Middle Class Joneses.

SUPER LONG-TERM (a.ka. Retirement)

Here is where that low interest / inflation combo (even if inflation is just 2% or 3%) will eat you alive … be prepared to be retired for a long time, say 30 – 50 years (even if you die young, at least your spouse and kids will be happy with their nest egg!) … you do NOT want your money running out before you do.

If you have a lump-sum, there’s only a few choices:

- Put it all into an Index Fund and only draw down 2.5% – 3.5% each year to live on.
- Put it all into income-producing real-estate and spend no more than 75% of the rent (after paying down mortgages and building up a suitable buffer to guard against ‘problems’)
- Put it all into TIPS (inflation-protected Treasury Bonds) and happily live off all the interest that they pay you every 6 months
- Implement a Bond laddering strategy, such as the Grangaard Strategy, which claim to be able to let you live off 6.6% of your lump sum at retirement every year
- Any combination of the above that suits your needs and ‘investment personality’

Each of these strategies is relatively “inflation-proof”, in that you get to increase the amount that you take out every year as a ‘wage’ to live off, and pays more interest typically than the bank will give you (expect maybe, the bonds … you pay a ‘price’ for the inflation-hedge).

Hope this helps?

Dumb Money!

I take issue with the seemingly interchangeable use of the words ‘saving’ and ‘investing’ …

Let’s not confuse buying Index Funds or typical diversified ordinay stock Mutual Funds with INVESTING …

… when you buy a Fund you are SAVING – consider it a long-term savings vehicle, no different to ordinary bank savings accounts, CD’s, and Bonds.

The difference? Effort.

 Buying a packaged financial product is no different to buying any other product: you send away for some information; if you like what you see you fill in the appropriate sales form; you pay your money and receive your ‘product’.

 Hopefully, when it comes to Funds, you make some money when you eventually cash out.

Contrast that with INVESTING:

 You do your research; you look for an underpriced item (in this case, a stock); you purchase the item; you watch the market carefully … and, when the price goes back up … you sell (this could be sooner = trading; or later = long-term-buy-and-hold).

Of course, you could just keep holding for dividends. In either case, you are aiming to MANAGE your holding to MAXIMIZE your RETURN.

Some people call the former Passive Investing and the latter Active Investing … but, if it walks like a duck …

… it is a duck!

BTW: there’s nothing wrong with SAVING … go ahead and buy some Index Funds if you’re not up to the task of INVESTING, even Warren says it’s OK …

When is investing gambling?

I was browsing a new finance forum the other day and came across a great question from a self-confessed ‘beginner investor’.

He asked:

“Where can I learn how to trade with a few thou for the short term (<3mo) with greater than 20% return. I’ve never invested anything. I know that long term investing seems much easier from what i’ve read ie. value investing with stock screens, but what is another good strategy? I am looking for a strategy, teacher, website, anything to start learning, but with a goal of putting money in the market. I’m not interested in funds or managers.”

That, my friends, is called ‘gambling’ not ‘investing’!

You see, when evaluating ANY so-called ‘investment strategy’ you have to consider the return that you can make against ‘market norms’ …

… which is a very simple way of saying “if I can do it … and I don’t have any SPECIAL INSIDER KNOWLEDGE that makes me SPECIAL … then why isn’t EVERYBODY doing it?”

The answer is, of course, is: it’s simply NOT possible … otherwise EVERYBODY would be doing it, already!

… unless you get extremely lucky (which is why what you want to achieve is called ‘speculating = gambling’).

A friend and I had a similar conversation the other day …

He is becoming a professional speaker and consultant; he has already made a great start by writing and self-publishing a book and already has some paid speaking engagements.

BUT, his target is to earn $200k next year … just from speaking/consulting, as a near-beginner!

So I asked him: ”How many corporate executives, with expertise in your specific area [customer service] earn anything close to your $200k target right now?”

He said: ”Not many … that’s a BIG corporate salary …”

Next, I asked him: “How many of them could write and speak about customer service?”

He answered: “Probably a lot more than you’d expect, especially if they knew that was $200k on the line …”

“Exactly!” I said, almost jumping out of my chair: “So, why would any of them work for somebody else, if they could simply write a book then earn $200k … with the added benefit of lots of travel, flexible hours, and no boss?”

“Hmmmm” he said, his brain obviously (finally) ticking over: “They wouldn’t!”

Which was exactly the point that I was trying to get across:

It simply CAN’T be DONE, by the average person … otherwise, they would all be doing it!

Of course, there are PLENTY of speakers and consultants earning $200k or way more – as there are plenty of people in all areas of ‘investment’ (stocks, options, currencies, futures, real-estate, business, etc, etc) earning outstanding returns even in a crappy market - but …

… they generally have SPECIAL INSIDER KNOWLEDGE that makes them SPECIAL … or, they work MUCH harder than anybody else and/or they get extremely LUCKY …

So, what would you tell our ‘Beginner Investor’?

I would say, when evaluating any opportunity or even your own investing goals and strategy consider:

1. Are you investing – in which case, you should expect ‘normal’ rates of return over the long haul, or

2. Are you really gambling – in which case, the sky is the limit … but, the ground could equally rush up to meet you …

depending upon how lucky you get.

BOTH have a place in your journey towards $7million in 7 years (or whatever target you set for yourself)  … it’s how I did it …

But, always be very clear on when and why you are investing and when and why you are gambling.

I’d like to hear your views …

Who needs more than $1,000,000?

Almost everybody will need more than $1,000,000 to retire on … most a lot more!

Look at this excerpt from an excellent report (that I would highly recommend you spend the $5 bucks on) from Retire Early:

” Perhaps the most troubling aspect of safe withdrawal rates is that very few folks will have the financial assets required to [even bother] … While we’re blessed to live in a rich and prosperous country, only a tiny sliver of the US population can comfortably retire on their savings alone. “

Are you really on track?

Against the odds …

For those of you who follow this blog, you will know that a key part of getting ahead is increasing your income.

And, you will already know that I think one of the best ways to do this is to start your own business … perhaps part-time, at first, to limit your risk … and, definitely in combination with other financial strategies that I will be sharing with you over the coming weeks.

For me, the gold-standard in this area is still The E-Myth Revisited by Michael Gerber … a book that I will unashamedly admit changed by life.

But, for anybody heading down the entrepreneurial path, I equally highly recommend a book by Guy Kawasaki (ex-Apple, founder of garage.com) called Art of the Start.

Guy can also be found on his blog, where I found this interesting post, that deals with the various myths around being an entrepreneur.

The problem is that the guest author is an academic who uses ODDS to establish that some types of businesses are better than others, and to suggest that it is the type of business that you go into rather than your ‘entrepreneurial ability’ that determines your success.

Here’s where I disagree …

YOUR odds of succeeding in any business venture are exactly 50/50 … either you WILL or you WON’T succeed!

Obviously, that makes no MATHEMATICAL sense, but going into business rarely does.

That’s why the rewards for those who DO succeed can be so high. If it were easy - and if success was GUARANTEED - we’d ALL be doing it!

For example, we intuitively know that the ODDS of being a huge success are so small in, say, sandwich shops.

In fact, the article suggests that the odds of mega-success in that type of business are 840 times smaller than starting, say, a computer business.

Yet, who wouldn’t like to be Mr Subway, Mr Quizno, Mr Togo, or Mr Potbelly?

I’ll even put up $1,000 that says that each of them knew EXACTLY what they were getting themselves into when they started out.

But, somewhere along the line each and every one of these entrepreneurs … in fact, EVERY SINGLE SUCCESSFUL ENTREPRENEUR IN HISTORY … simply said: “screw the odds”.

Having done some ‘odds screwing’ of my own (a number of times, with great success) over the years, I humbly suggest that you do, too.

Please let me know how well you do …

Let's not confuse 'saving' with 'investing' …

This goes back to a comment that I received in response to a question posted on another finance blog - one that I happen to like for early-stage savers …

I suggested that for many people, their retirement savings actually won’t be enough to fund their ideal retirement … if they’re happy to accept less, fine!

If not, then I suggested that they may need to do something a bit more active to pick up the pace …

Here is a response that I received:

“Your investing approach of “actively (business, real estate, trading)” sounds more like speculating and your savings approach (CDs, 401ks, etc.)” sounds more like investing to me. Just based on the statistics of individuals who trade rather than index…most get eaten up by fees while compounding growth usually is the better way to go using monte carlo analysis, But who knows what will happen in the future.