Debt as a hedge against inflation?

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Flexo (at Consumerism Commentary) wrote an interesting piece on debt reduction; in promoting his Debt Avalanche over the Dave Ramsey’s Debt Snowball, Flexo said:

One major problem I have with the snowball approach is that your largest balance may be significantly more expensive than your smallest balance. Today it is not difficult to find a default interest rate on a credit card north of 30%. There is no way in good conscience I could recommend holding off on eliminating a debt this expensive in favor of paying off a small balance with a 7.9% interest rate. The same goes for payday loans, whose fees can border on usurious if interpreted as interest rates.

I agree totally, but then reminded Flexo that there is a third method – one that I humbly invented – called The Cash Cascade which encourages you to consider what you will do AFTER you have paid off your debt … and, perhaps do some of that instead!

Flexo sent me an e-mail and asked me to to “describe at least a summary of [my] method in the comment”, which I did as follows:

We are all familiar with the concept of ‘good debt’ and ‘bad debt’, but most don’t realize that this is only a way of avoiding getting INTO (bad) debt … once we have acquired the debt, then we need to start thinking of debt simply as ‘cheap debt’ or ‘expensive debt’. The Debt Avalanche is clearly ideally suited to attacking the ‘expensive debt’ first.

However, there is another part to this: our ultimate financial goal is usually not to become ‘debt free’ (although, that may be a tactic that some would choose … not me!), rather to achieve financial independence, or wealth, or [insert your life-supporting goal, here], and often a part of the strategy will be to acquire SOME debt in order to get there while you are still young enough to enjoy life e.g. you might decide to take out a mortgage on an investment property, or a margin loan on stocks, or a small business start-up loan, etc.

Clearly, it would make NO sense to delay investing just so that you can pay off relatively cheap debt (e.g. student loan, mortgage, etc.) i.e. just to take out more expensive debt later (e.g. the small business loan) … instead, leave the cheaper loan in place and “pay off’ the more expensive loan by not taking it out in the first place!

Once you think about debt and investment as ‘cheap’ v ‘expensive’, it becomes easier to apply the principles of the Debt Avalanche to both debts AND investments 🙂

Not sure if my thought process was very clear, but it certainly stimulated an unbelievably clear comment, from another reader – Kitty – who said:

I would like to second 7million7years in that keeping fixed low interest debt around instead of repaying could be a valid investment strategy. One thing to keep in mind always is the possibility of future inflation and/or higher interest rates – a reasonable expectation nowadays.

If your debt is at 4.5% now, it may seem like higher than you can get on a normal CD. But what about 5 years from now? During the early 80s where you could get double digit returns on normal bank CDs people who had 30-year fixed mortgages at 9% were feeling very lucky… Long term fixed low interest debt is as much a hedge against inflation as buying commodities or TIPs. In fact I have a couple of multi-millionaire friends who took a mortgage on their vacation home when they could’ve paid for it in cash.

I don’t know if I would finance my vacation home – unless, I had something MUCH better to do with the money – but: “long term fixed low interest debt is as much a hedge against inflation as buying commodities or TIPs” …

… using debt as a Making Money 301 tool? Brilliant, Kitty!!

I only wish that I had thought of it, first 🙂

That old chestnut …

7 Millionaires … In Training! featured on iReport.com … click here to read more!

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My Money Blog gives me the excuse to revisit that old chestnut – a favorite of mine, since it is so emotive and is bound to piss off Ramseyphiles, saying:

I’ve been thinking more about whether I should commit some additional funds to pay down the principal on my mortgage and reduce my interest paid.

I like this opening sentence, because it clearly provides the financial motivation to pay off your mortgage early: to reduce your interest paid.

Since interest doesn’t gain you anything, why not pay it off as early as possible?

Simple: because you still need to decide what to do with the mortgage payments that you USED to make, once you stop making them?

If you want to get rich(er) quick(er) you’ll probably put them into some sort of investment that earns you at least an 8.5% long-term return … and, if you REALLY want to get rich(er) quick(er) you might even borrow money so that you buy an even higher performing investment (e.g. ‘start a business’ funds, investment property, margin loan on stocks, etc.) …

… you’re being smart!

But, if you are going to do that later, why not start earlier, when you have more time to:

a) allow compounding to really ‘kick in’, and

b) recover if things should go awry?

Your answer, of course, will be: “because I have a mortgage to pay” …

… when it should be: “you’re right, otherwise I won’t have a retirement”!

We would normally leave things there, but My Money Blog finished his article with a nice suggested strategy when deciding if to pay your mortgage early:

My idea is to simply look at the current yield of a comparable U.S. Treasury bond and compare it to my mortgage interest rate. If my mortgage interest rate is a lot higher than the bond rate, then I should pay extra towards the mortgage. Otherwise, if the Treasury rate is higher, then I should invest in bonds or bank accounts directly instead. If it’s close, stick with liquidity.

My Money Blog seems to have the right idea: compare the AFTER TAX mortgage savings with what you can earn elsewhere, but comparing to the cash / bond rate is too conservative for most people.

Look, you’re in this for the long-term (eg do you have 20+ years left before you plan to retire?), so put your money where you can get the best 20+ year return; this is the order:

Businesses

Real-Estate

Individual Stocks

Index Funds

Bonds

CD’s

Cash

Start as close to the top as you feel comfortable handling eg

You may have no interest/aptitude in either real-estate, businesses, or even learning about how to value companies/stocks, so you may simply buy a low cost Index Fund and wait 20+ years for your return …

… but, no matter which you pick (unless, you are wading down at the Bonds, Cd, Cash end) – and, you have 20+ years to ‘play with’ – it’s really no contest 😉

What makes you wealthy may not KEEP you wealthy …

It may be OK to choose an activity that some would consider ‘gambling’ to make your money: trading stocks and options; trading options; flipping real-estate …

… or, in this case, it’s Phil Ivey who many consider to be the ‘Tiger Woods of Poker’ a.k.a. The World’s Greatest Poker Player.

But, listen closely, in the 10 seconds from 5:00 you will hear the likely source of his eventual demise – Phil Ivey’s Financial Archilles Heel.

If this is you, seek help now … if you want to reach your Number by your Date, you may need to take a few chances to make your money, but once it’s in your hands you don’t want to risk just throwing away a penny of it!

A cruel financial joke?

Well, after a week of up/down – but, mainly DOWN – blog time, we have our new site up and running! Please let me know what you think?!

Thanks for your patience … FINALLY, here is today’s post 🙂

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Oh, if only we earned three times more than we do today …

… then we could tithe, save, and meet our financial goals. Life would be SO much easier 😉

Rick puts it simply:

Saving half your income is far easier if you make $180,000/year than if you are making $61,000/year.

I’m not so sure: there is a cruel financial joke; it goes something like this:

– earn $50k, spend $50k?
– earn $150k, spend $150k!

The good/bad habits are made when you ARE earning $61k per year … at least, in my experience. And, in Scott’s (who is an Ultra High Income doctor) experience, as well:

Even if we brought home a third of what we do now, we would simply have a smaller mortgage, lower taxes, lower resulting insurance and lower costs in several other areas and we would be saving a large percentage of our salaries as well. This is were delayed gratification comes into play

The reason WHY Scott can save half his income, is because he started off with low expectations, and kept them in check, even as his income grew and grew and grew:

I guess people think that i’m super frugal and living a little on the miserly side, since we are saving half of our net income per month. But, the thing is, we net 15-16k per month now. If I can’t find some kind of peace and enjoyment on half of that after growing up poor, then I have serious problems!

Peace and enjoyment is found in frugal living for some, and living ‘large’ for others; what matters most, I believe, is that you live within whatever means you decide to put together 🙂

Not talkin'bout rich … talkin'bout wealth!

If you want to skip the racial slant to this great video, just scroll forward to about 1:55 seconds and listen for 30 seconds …

… if you want to skip the swearing, just scroll forward to 4:06 😛

Chris Rock is a financial genius, he describes the difference between being “rich” (having money to splash around) and being “wealthy”, for example:

– Being ‘wealthy’ means that you buy a walmart store so that you have money to pass on to the generations; being ‘rich’ means that you go out and buy some jewelery

– ‘Wealth’ is passed down from generation to generation; ‘rich’ is blown on a drug habit

– ‘Wealthy’ people preserve their money; ‘rich’ people spend money like water

Surprisingly good financial advice from an unexpected source!

The root of all evil?

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I’ve been meaning to get around to writing this post for a while, but it kept slipping my mind, until I saw Trent’s Tweet (?) on Twitter:

“A wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart.” – Jonathan Swift

I haven’t heard that specific saying before, but I have heard that “money is the root of all evil” …

… ooh, hasn’t this stopped many a person from living their Life’s Purpose?!

Well, if money is an evil, it’s a necessary evil – as even our resident chaplain (ret.) would be quick to tell you as he heads to his own “number of $4,000,000 by 20019”!

You see, the correct biblical reference is from Timothy 6:9-11 and, it actually says:

For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs.

The “love of money”, not money itself … and, that to me, sounds a whole lot like what Jonathan Swift was trying to say …

… what say you?

It's all about the curve – Part III

While we all know that straight lines are passe, even compounding – the panacea to the masses offered by the financial services industry – does far less for us than cursory examination would at first seem to indicate, so let’s finish this series by taking a close look at an amazing effect … it’s called:

The J Curve

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I am, perhaps, guilty – along with Michael Masterson whom I quoted in this post – of providing the impression that, in order to make your Number, you simply need to ramp up the compounding effect … that is, a larger compounded ‘interest rate’ provides a larger / quicker outcome … all in a nice, neat geometric progression.

DrDollaz states the issue very nicely:

Sometimes I think the assumptions of 50%+ compounded growth rates over long extended periods of time is a little excessive. I own 2 fairly successful small businesses and have seen roughly 75%+ growth in my net worth over the past 5 years if I want to count “conservative” business equity and if that continues, then I’ll blow past my number ($12.5 Million in 5 Years from now will be more like $30 Million in 5 Years!). I just feel that at some point the growth rate is not “as” easily sustainable (although I’d LOVE to be wrong!!! :) )

But, Michael Masterson’s assumed 50+% compound growth rate for successful business startups is only true when planning your Making Money 201 strategies to reach your Number [AJC: assuming – as it will be for most of my readers, at least – that MM101 won’t be enough to get you there by then], however …

… in reality:

1. You PLAN your approach to your Number/Date by calculating the Required Annual Compounded Growth Rate, but then

2. You ACHIEVE your Number/Date through a series of unpredictable – and, often climatic – events.

The simplest way to explain this is to look at a recent phenomena with this very blog:

I write my blog daily and promote it enough (by leaving comments on other blogs; submitting to the occasional personal finance carnival; and so on) to have hundreds of daily readers; but, every so often, one of my articles is picked up elsewhere and … boom … readership skyrockets!

Here’s what happened to my readership when Kimberly Palmer asked me to contribute to an article that she was writing for US News:

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Now, I could not have engineered this result, yet I instigated it by ‘cold contacting’ Kimberly some months ago and contributing this ‘guest post’ … it’s almost like I positioned myself for success, but then it actually came of its own accord!

You can see on the graph the J-curve effect – not once, but twice – as the article was first published in US News … then syndicated by Yahoo! Finance.

And, this is the way Making Money 201 seems to work (yes, the most powerful growth strategy – as always – belongs to MM201): a series of dramatic spikes interspersed by plateaus and sudden drops …

… it’s not a smooth ride to the top, but a hairy roller-coaster ride to (we hope) ultimate success. This is why most people aren’t rich: they can’t stomach the dramatic up’s and down’s 🙁

Looking back on my own career, I realized that my financial and business success could be traced back to three ‘explosive events’ (hence the ‘elbow’ or the ‘J’ in the curve):

– I had been trundling along with my business barely breaking even when I finally ‘hooked’ the big one; a large corporate whose client base matched the demographic of my prospect list, and whose products complemented mine (actually, mine complemented their product set); I picked up two other major clients at the same time: my sales quadrupled in just 6 months.

– Later, I signed a $20 million, 5 year contract that saw me open my business (as the 51% majority stakeholder in a Joint Venture) in the USA; this quadrupled my business again.

– Later still, I signed a series of transactions (so, I guess this was really a series of slightly smaller ‘explosions’) to sell my businesses at excellent, pre-crash, valuations.

Each J-Curve Event produced a 400+% growth spurt, generally followed by a long flat (or even slightly declining, as customers dropped off) period, leading up to the next J-Curve Event, and so on …

… the combined effect over the entire period of owning the business would have approximated a 50+% annual compound growth rate, but I never ran the actual calc’s (since I started with $0 capital, my actual $$$ return is technically infinite, anyway).

So, you need to position yourself to take advantage of all of these different types of curves if you have a Large Number by a Soon Date …

… then just sit back and wait for the explosions bomb-icon1

Nasty Mr Inflation ….

Nasty_ManMost people that I talk to seem to misunderstand inflation and how to apply it to thinking about your retirement …

… the easiest way to deal with this is to think of inflation in TWO pieces:

1. Leading up to retirement (a.k.a. “life after work”)

2. After you have stopped working

It should be easy to see why:

In the former you are working with a stream of income (e.g. your salary) trying to build up to something big (i.e. your ‘nest egg’) …. whereas, in the latter you are working with a FIXED amount of money (i.e. your nest egg) and are trying to create an annuity stream (i.e. a pseudo-salary).

Can you see how one is almost the exact reverse of the other, yet inflation plays a HUGE – but different in effect – part in both?!

Today, we’ll deal with leading up to retirement:

Dealing with inflation in the planning towards your Number (i.e. your nest egg) is dealt with quite elegantly (for the mathematically-minded) in this post by Pinyo:

Step 1: How much do I need today?

I need $40,000 per year

Step 2: Adjust for inflation.

Now we have to adjust that $40,000 for inflation. For this example, we assume inflation rate is 3.5% per year. We accomplish this with the following formula:
Inflation Adjusted $ = Today’s $ * ((1 + inflation rate)^ Number of years to retirement)

Inflation Adjusted $ = $40,000 * (1.035 ^ 30)

Inflation Adjusted $ = $113,000 (rounded up)

I need $113,000 per year after inflation

Step 3: Multiply by 25

The formula:
Retirement Needs = Inflation Adjusted Income * 25

Retirement Needs = $2,825,000

I need to save $2.8 million to begin retirement

I can’t get the math to work, but you need to visit Pinyo’s post for the full explanations and try it for yourself …

We have some slightly different rules:

For example, I presume that inflation will be at least 4% for the next X years (economists were predicting 5+%, but who knows now, given the current economic situation?!) and I have been assuming a ‘safe retirement withdrawal rate’ of 5% (i.e. Rule of 20). Together, these come to a slightly lower ‘number’ than Pinyo, but not by much: $2.4 million. That’s why, for planning purposes, I don’t get too hung up on what numbers you decide to choose …

That’s also why I find that for us non-mathematically-minded-people [AJC: yes, I have 2nd year college math and I still can’t add in my head … let me see 1 + 3 = $7 million … good enough for me! 😉 ] that the following table is ‘good enough’ to estimate for inflation; if you earn $40,000 per year (or whatever you currently earn, or want to earn when you retire), then to estimate how much income you need to replace:

•    5 years out, add 25% to the current amount.
•    10 years out, add 50% to the current amount.
•    20 years out, double the current amount.

30 years out, we would simply multiply by 2.5 (which ‘only’ gets us to $100k, rather than Pinyo’s $113k). Again, for planning purposes, I actually think that this is close enough … but, if you are good with a calculator (or, better yet a spreadsheet), go for it!

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In the next and final part of this two-part series, we will look at how to deal with inflation after you stop work / retire …

The MOST important Making Money 101 tool of them all …

I don’t invest in mutual funds, but I know that many of my poor, deluded readers do 😛 For you, The Dough Roller provides some tips … and, for the rest of us, he mentions this blog. Thanks, Dough Roller!
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Picture 2I posed a seemingly simple question: What is the MOST important Making Money 101 tool of all?

After all, this is basically the subject of almost all of the 2,500+ personal finance blogs in the blogosphere … how to save your way to wealth. We know that it can’t be done, but that doesn’t stop all of those poor blighters from trying … and, worse, writing about it 😉

But, it is an important part of making money, which is why we devote a whole subject to it …

[AJC: Which gives me the fleeting idea for yet another reader poll: which is the most important Making Money stage of them all: MM101, MM201, or MM301? But, you would all too quickly see right through the question: making lots of money (MM201) is useless if you (a) spend it before you get it (MM101) and/or (b) let it slip right out of your fingers once you have it (MM301) … ergo, they are clearly ALL important!]

Now, I thought that I would be pretty smart and ask questions that would lead you away from the ‘hidden gem’, and I could then glide in on my blogging-white-charger and whisk you right off your financial feet with a princely nugget of wisdom, just as you were nodding in agreement with the poor misguided fools who submitted non-optimum answers …

… but, ‘ask the audience’ came bloody close to winning the 7 million dollar question!

Although the majority response was split nearly 50/50 between the ‘common wisdom’ answer and the one that I thought (hoped!) would slide right under the radar, nobody said it better than Ryan:

Without delayed gratification, why would we save money at all? We’d just live paycheck to paycheck and hope we never…didn’t get a paycheck!

And, what pees me off even more is that the general comments, covering all of these choices and more, were so on-the-mark that I could stop writing this blog … but, will instead just have to shift into higher gear [AJC: hang on tight!].

So, yes

…. this was another almost-trick question in that they are ALL clearly important, but, this is an experiential blog, in that my financial advice is largely shaped by my own experience (much more so than somebody else’s ‘theory’) and, when I looked back it was delayed gratification more than anything else that seemed to keep me out of the poor house … then and now.

Why delayed gratification?

Because it is a habit for a lifetime; it will keep you from spending all of your money:

– when you don’t yet have enough of it

– while you are still struggling to get more of it

– when you have what should already be enough of it

… and, for those whom ‘delayed gratification’ has not yet become habit, we broke new ground by inventing 7million7year’s Patented Delayed Gratifier [AJC: no, it’s not something most commonly found in an Adult Store 😉 ] a.k.a. The Power of 10-1-1-1-1

There you have it: delayed gratification, what I – and, you – believe to be the most important Making Money 101 tool of them all 🙂

How much windfall to spend?

Want to make money in real-estate? Then you need to know where the ‘hot’ cities to buy in are … this US News article from Luke Mullins should tell you just that!

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Picture 4I classify ‘windfalls’ with all other Found Money: save 50%+ and spend up to 50%

I’m not going to tell you to spend half, but you can and should – at least – spend a significant portion: at least enough to fully celebrate your good fortune (even more so if it was a result of hard work rather than luck).

Interestingly enough, by chance, I came across this quote from Ramit Sethi (I Will Teach You To Be Rich):

I don’t recommend you sock away 100% of unexpected earnings. In fact, I force myself to spend 25%-50% of any unexpected money within a month, a technique I developed to keep motivating myself to earn unexpected income.

Of course, blindly following blanket rules won’t make you rich … you have to qualify them and assess against your own situation, which is why this blog (or others) cannot be misconstrued as personal financial advice … for example:

– If you find $20 on the street, buy yourself a latte and a magazine and then put the other $10 in your end-of-month savings ‘cookie jar’

– If you sell your business for $2 Million don’t spend $1 million

– If you get a $200 a week pay increase:

… do spend $100 immediately (enjoy!)

… don’t spend $100 extra a week (unless you HAVE to)

No rules, but some guidelines:

– If the ‘found money’ is life-changing (for me, that means getting you to your Number, or a Big Step closer) then spend a chunk … perhaps as much  as the top tier on your version of the 10-1-1-1-1 chart (provided it isn’t more than 5% – 10% of the total ‘found money’). Do me a favor: spend it on something you’ll remember (for me, it was the Maserati and the Villa-in-Tuscany vacation) 🙂

– For the money that you do want to spend – one-off, but not life-changing – still apply 10-1-1-1-1, but kick it all up a notch (e.g. you only need to think about spending $100 for 10 minutes) … but, ONLY until that allocated money is spent

– If it is an ongoing – and fairly reliable – stream of ‘found money’ (e.g. a pay increase), calculate how much of the increase you NEED to spend (i.e. add to your budget because you have been going without, or are behind, or have critical debt repayment, etc., etc.) then gradually wind your spending back to that number and save the rest.

An example may help to illustrate the last point:

You currently earn $500 a week, and are behind a little. You calculate that another $40 a week will be enough to ‘break even’ on your spending (you know: put food on the table; clothe the kids; pay down the remaining balance on the credit cards that you tore up, etc. etc.).

Now, you receive a pay-rise (I guess you got lucky and switched jobs, or decided to take on a second job) of $200 a week (after tax, of course):

1. You are committed to saving at least $100 of that, so $100 a week additional goes straight into the investment account

2. You are committed to spending $40 a week (see above)

3. So that leaves $60 a week undecided:

Week 1: spend $60 … enjoy!

Week 2: spend $40 …. enjoy!

Week 3: Spend $20 … enjoy!

Week 4: By now, you’re actually saving $160 a week extra … what do you expect? Every week to be Christmas?!

Enjoy! 😉