Why retail businesses suck …

My blogging friend, JD Roth posted a great reader question recently on his super-popular Get Rich Slowly blog:

I’ve been at the same job since I graduated from college nearly ten years ago. Lately I’ve lost the passion for what I do and am aching for something completely different. I want to start a retail shop.

Two problems:

  1. I’m paid well here, so I’m going to have to figure out how to make this transition in a way that won’t hurt the family’s finances.
  2. I don’t have any real business training, and the thought of keeping books for the business gives me stomach pains.  But there are resources out there to help with the logistical side of running a (retail) business, and I know where I need help and will pay for it (accounting, interior decorator, etc.).

Well, this reader is exactly where I was not that long ago … nearly 10 years into a high-flying corporate career – with all the perks that go along with it (cars, travel, expense accounts) – and, I got bitten with the entrepreneurial bug …

… just like getting bitten by a mosquito and catching West Nile (the non-fatal form!), once you get it, it’s almost impossible to shake off.

So, I have a question for this reader … in fact, it’s probably the most important question that he needs to answer before going INTO this (or any) business:

Who are you going to sell it to when you finally decide to get out?

If his answer is: “whoever wants to buy my retail store” …

… then I suggest that he doesn’t even start, because he will effectively be trading his high-paying corporate job (with perks) for a low paying, slave-labor ‘job’ in retail.

Retail sucks because: there are way too many overheads; your balls are tied up in leases and inventory; and, you’ll be working 60 – 80 hr workweeks for the rest of your life.

BUT, if the reader can honestly & passionately answer with something like:

“Well, I have a unique niche/vision, so I’ll be opening my first store in 2008; 3 more in 2010 and 50 across the Eastern seaboard by 2015, then I’ll IPO or sell to Sears”

… he just MAY have an opportunity worth pursuing!

The reader then went on to ask:

The bigger issues, I think, are how to get from where I am now — sitting behind a desk doing the job I’ve been doing for 10 years — and getting the momentum going to really make this happen (and to not fail at it, leaving me jobless and penniless).

No, Little Grasshopper … if you have the passion, and can feel it in your bones … and, if it is REALLY an opportunity worth pursuing … then you are either all wet or all dry …

… you need to have a financial buffer (well, I started even without that … but, then again, I’m one crazy dude!), then get out and Just Do It!

You will NEVER start a retail business like this whilst still working full-time … there are just too many roadblocks in your way: scouting for locations; negotiating leases; sussing out the competition; negotiating with suppliers; hiring your first employees; sucking up to the bank manager; and, so on.

Would I start a retail business … unlikely.

How would I start a business today … exactly the same way that I am now starting two:

Come up with an Internet-based business concept; look for partners who can build the business for equity; put up a little seed money; and, stay in my day job as long as possible (well, this last step doesn’t apply to me … but, you get my point?).

Then I’d cross my fingers, close my eyes, and jump right in 🙂

What are the pro's and con's of value investing?

I answered a great question at TickerHound posted by the staff (as they do from time to time to stimulate discussion) that I thought I should simply repeat here:

What are the pro’s and con’s of value investing? Do you think it’s a worthwhile strategy or are you more of a “efficient market” proponent?

Well, I consider myself a Value Investor in everything that I do … stocks, real-estate, etc. The only exception is in the case of businesses, I’m generally a Growth Investor or a Value Investor.

Value Investing simply means “buying something worth $2 for $1” … well, not exactly, but you get my point: buying something for less than it is WORTH.

Now, this is a critical distinction: just because something was selling for $2 last week, and is selling for $1 this week, doesn’t mean that it is a VALUE Stock … it may only be ‘worth’ $0.50 and the market may simply be driving the price down to that … and, beyond!

In fact, that same stock (really ‘worth’ only $0.50) may BECOME a Value Stock if/when the market overshoots and sends the price down to $0.25.

The problem with Value Stocks is then one of KNOWING what they are truly worth at any point in time, and only buying when they are selling for a price less than that (preferably, with a large Margin of Safety … which simply means, buying it for MUCH LESS than what you THINK it is worth “just in case” …).

Now that we have covered the basics, what is the PRO of Value Investing?

Exactly that … being able to buy something ‘worth’ $2 for only $1. I can’t think of a better, more sure way of making money than that!

Then, what is the CON of value Investing … after all, there must be some or we’d ALL be doing it?

Simple: as I said before, it’s all about KNOWING which stock that is currently selling for $1 is actually worth $2 (and, avoiding the ones that are only worth $0.50!!). And, that takes some knowledge and skill. Warren Buffett has that knowledge and skill … so do many others, to a greater or lesser extent.

One other CON – one that is, ironically enough, addressed by another TickerHound question: “Is technical analysis still applicable in a “news driven” market like the one we’re in now?”:

If a stock that you KNOW is worth $2 is currently selling for $1, is it an automatic BUY?

Well NO … you see, you KNOW it is worth $2, but the rest of the market may not!

Or, it may have BEEN worth $2 but there is something happening (maybe a pending lawsuit around a key patent, or the loss of a major contract, or … ) that YOU don’t know about because it hasn’t hit the “news” (or TickerHound) yet, but those ‘in the know’ are selling off the stock by the truckload.

So, that’s where technical analysis is not just applicable in a “news driven” market like the one we’re in now, but absolutely CRITICAL for buying Value Stocks …

… it will tell you WHEN to buy (or sell off) that stock holding, based upon what the “insiders” are doing.

If you want to learn more about Value Investing, and using Technical Analysis to know when to get in/out of a Value position, I recommend picking up a copy of Phil Town’s excellent primer: Rule 1 Investing

… and, Good Luck!