Late last year, I asked you (a number of times … just like Howie Mandel) …
…. Deal or No Deal?!
What would you have done [AJC: if you haven’t yet ‘cast your vote’, please go back to this post and drop a comment]?
We know that Ms Tomorrow Rodriguez (sounds like a character out of a James Bond movie) said “No Deal!” to the miserly Banker’s’ offer that only paid out 1-in-3 for a 50/50 chance …
… Vote 1 for the ‘math kings’!
But, look at the situation that she’s faced with right now (in the photo above):
4 suitcases left: 3 of them contain ONE MILLION DOLLARS and 1 contains only $300!!
Ms Rodriguez – with the odds clearly stacked in her favor – has two choices:
1. Take the Banker’s Offer of $677,000
2. Say “No Deal” and select just one more suitcase (then she will be presented with another offer)
Deal or No Deal?
Let’s examine the options:
1. Take the $677k and run!
OK, the banker has offered $677,000 but there are 4 suitcases left of which three contain $1 Million and one is a (virtual) blank.
That smells like a 75% chance of $1 Million to me … ‘worth’ $750,000 (any maths whizzes out there to counter this?) … seems to me that the Banker is short-changing Tomorrow Rodriguez by $73,000 buckaroos!
2. Select just one more suitcase and see what happens next (after all, she can’t lose on the next turn)
Well, here is the problem … unlike any of the lead-up turns, this time there is only ONE non-million case left; so, there are actually two possible outcomes here:
i) Tomorrow selects the one suitcase containing the blank (i.e. $300) which means that she automatically wins (there are only 3 suitcases left … since each would then have to contain $1 Mill. she can’t lose)
ii) Three times more likely, Tomorrow selects one of the three suitcases that contain $1 Million and the chance of winning on the next round drops from 75% to 67% (3 suitcases left: 2 contain $1 Million and 1 contains $300 only)
From this round on, the Banker Deals can only get worse, because the next round after this one would leave just 2 suitcases (assuming that she hadn’t won by then) … or, a 50/50 chance (and, we’ve already seen how much the Banker will rip her off on that)
In fact, Tomorrow is effectively paying for each ‘roll of the dice’ from here on in … whether she realizes it or not …
So, if she turns down $677,000, Tomorrow is really saying: “$1 Million or Bust … I’m going all the way, Baby!” … because she will surely turn down the later, much lower offers (been there, done that!) as well.
So, Ms Rodriguez really has just two practical alternatives:
1. A guaranteed $677,000 if she walks away right now
2. A 75% chance of winning $1 Million AND a 25% chance of walking away virtually empty-handed
Deal or No Deal?
Just like last time, make a vote & drop your vote into the comment section below (I’d love to hear your reasons) … next week, we’ll check out what our readers had to say … it should be interesting!
In the meantime, do you want to know what Ms Rodriguez chose? Do you agree?