Gotta love a show that dangles a $1 Million ‘carrot’ in front of people’s noses and all they need to do is make some sensible life choices – on the spot, and in front of millions of people 😉
Tomorrow Rodriguez (that’s her name … really!) is a sensible girl: married, been in the army, put herself through school, has a Master’s degree in something-or-other (obviously, not math).
And, she’s made it on to one of those ‘special episodes’ – you know, the ones where they put up 9 suitcases with $1 Million in each of them, rather than the usual single suitcase: that’s 9 chances in 26 … 35% or roughly a 2-to-1 chance of walking away with $1 Million.
Deal or No Deal?
OK, but there’s a twist … first you get to pick some suitcases and the ‘Banker’ makes you a take it or leave it offer:
He’ll give you $43,000 to walk away right now! In fact, that’s exactly what he offered Tomorrow very early on in the show …
Deal or No Deal?
You say “No Deal!” (do you?) and pick a few more suitcases … the offer goes up and up, but you keep turning the Banker down, down, down, until the money gets serious.
Now, more than half the suitcases are gone (and 3 or 4 of the ones with $1 Million in them, as well) but you still have a few ‘million dollar suitcases’ as well as a few lemons left … but, you have chosen well (birthdays, tarot readings, and horoscopes are really working well for you today).
The Banker offers you $134,000 to walk away, right now!
Deal or No Deal?
Of course, you say “No Deal!” (are you sure that you do?) and Howie asks you to pick just two more suitcases … the offer goes up to …
… the amount in the photo above!
Deal or No Deal?
If you haven’t dipped out already, here’s something interesting to note; it may or may not change your mind, but it’s interesting nonetheless:
There are 6 suitcases left [AJC: one suitcase, also containing ONE MILLION in the bottom right has been cropped in the photo at the top of this post]:
3 suitcases containing virtually nothing (max. of $400) AND
3 suitcases containing $1 Million
So, the odds are exactly 50/50 that’s you’ll pick one of the suitcases that guarantees you $1,000,000 so the banker should offer you $500,000 (give or take a few bucks) …
… BUT, the Banker’s Offer is only $349,000
Deal or No Deal?
Let me know where you stopped … click on one of the options in the poll … if you’re up for it, you can also drop the reason for your vote into the Comments section below … this should be fun!
In the meantime, do you want to know what Ms Rodriguez did? We’ll talk a little more about that next week 🙂
I would go for the million, no question. I look at this game just like the game of life, financially speaking. If I was on the show just to “be on the show”, for the experience, the exposure etc.. then I would take the safe money, bail out and call it a success since all I really wanted was to be on the show and the extra cash would be a bonus!
But just like in life, i’m not just here “for the show”. I only get one shot at the game of life and i’m here to go for the best. If I loose a chance at the 43k, the 134k or even the 349k, no biggy, I can make that myself in short time, so why not go for the “best” this show has to offer?
Just like in life, in health, in relationships, in money, etc.., why not go for the best?
Obviously you didn’t major in math either. 9 of 26 or 35% is much more like 3 to 1 chance, not 2 to 1.
VD – aaah, but this depends on how you term: “2 to 1” or “3:1”. You see, in gambling terms 35% is roughly one-third (33.33333%); so that means 3 pieces to the pie: 2 of which don’t have ham and pineapple TO 1 which does … 2 to 1 🙂
I think the actual odds and the amount the bank offers you are probably even, but I am not going to do the math to prove it one way or the other. It doesn’t matter to me.
Since I can’t easily just work and make the $349k, I would stop there and take it to invest it in something where I do have better odds and less risk – in me! I’m not there just for the show because it doesn’t amuse me (another one would perhaps, like Jeopardy where the gambles are much more interesting and involve the other parties and their psychologies and abilities as well).
I actually answered the poll before I read the posting (most things seem to want you to answer before reading on), so perhaps if I had two suitcases and one had $400 in it and the other $1M and they offered me $349k, I would take my chances. Then again, $400 wouldn’t pay for the trip even and the $349 (less taxes) is a sure thing at that point, right?
FYI, the expected value based on basic probability theory is ~$500,150. The situation is you have two categories A (worth $1,000,000) and B (worth on average $300). There are three cases from each set. You must select 2 cases. That leave the following possible outcomes: AA, BB, AB, BA (where AB and BA have equal value). The what is left would then be ABBB (worth an average of $250,225), AAAB (worth an average of $750,075, and 2 x AABB (worth $250,150). Thus the total expected value of the game is $500,150 (which makes intuitive sense).
But what really matters is that you have to decide if you are willing to accept the 1/4 chance the offer will go down (likely to about $175,000 if you remove two of the million dollar cases) in return for the 25% chance to go way up (to somewhere around $525,000).
In the next round, you could be presented with the options: ABBB, AABB, or AAAB. With ABBB and AABB, you have a real chance to end up with virtually nothing if you pick two more cases. I take the banker’s offer for either. If you hit your AAAB I would take two more cases. Finally, it would either be AA (automatic million $ win!) or AB (50/50 million or nothing). On the 50/50 I take the deal every time.
My vote is that we get Adfecto on the show and split the winnings. Who’s in? 😛
@ Adfecto – Thanks! So, it seems that we have been offered ‘only’ $349,000 for something ‘worth’ $500,150. Seems like a bad deal? When does Deal or No Deal ever become a good deal?
Assuming I got to the point where I was offered the $349k,I’d take it. 2 reasons.One , I am no ones fool, I know my chances are 50/50 but I don’t feel that lucky, so I’ll take my sure thing thank you very much. Second reason, I know I’d lose nearly half that $349k to taxes, but I’d use the remainder to further my pursuit of my number.
@ Steve – Great answer! Thanks.
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