Comments on: Deal or No Deal – Part 2 – Reader Poll

By: Deal or No Deal - Part 3 - Reader Poll « How to Make 7 Million in 7 Years™

Deal or No Deal - Part 3 - Reader Poll « How to Make 7 Million in 7 Years™ — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 10:32:35 +0000

[...] last year, I asked you (a number of times … just like Howie Mandel) [...]

By: Adrian

Adrian — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 00:11:29 +0000

@ Steve – Great answer! Thanks.

By: steve

steve — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 23:49:38 +0000

Assuming I got to the point where I was offered the $349k,I’d take it. 2 reasons.One , I am no ones fool, I know my chances are 50/50 but I don’t feel that lucky, so I’ll take my sure thing thank you very much. Second reason, I know I’d lose nearly half that $349k to taxes, but I’d use the remainder to further my pursuit of my number.

By: AJC

AJC — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 21:51:54 +0000

My vote is that we get Adfecto on the show and split the winnings. Who’s in?

@ Adfecto – Thanks! So, it seems that we have been offered ‘only’ $349,000 for something ‘worth’ $500,150. Seems like a bad deal? When does Deal or No Deal ever become a good deal?

By: Adfecto

Adfecto — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 20:20:37 +0000

FYI, the expected value based on basic probability theory is ~$500,150. The situation is you have two categories A (worth $1,000,000) and B (worth on average $300). There are three cases from each set. You must select 2 cases. That leave the following possible outcomes: AA, BB, AB, BA (where AB and BA have equal value). The what is left would then be ABBB (worth an average of $250,225), AAAB (worth an average of $750,075, and 2 x AABB (worth $250,150). Thus the total expected value of the game is $500,150 (which makes intuitive sense).

But what really matters is that you have to decide if you are willing to accept the 1/4 chance the offer will go down (likely to about $175,000 if you remove two of the million dollar cases) in return for the 25% chance to go way up (to somewhere around $525,000).

In the next round, you could be presented with the options: ABBB, AABB, or AAAB. With ABBB and AABB, you have a real chance to end up with virtually nothing if you pick two more cases. I take the banker’s offer for either. If you hit your AAAB I would take two more cases. Finally, it would either be AA (automatic million $ win!) or AB (50/50 million or nothing). On the 50/50 I take the deal every time.

By: Diane

Diane — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 21:30:04 +0000

I think the actual odds and the amount the bank offers you are probably even, but I am not going to do the math to prove it one way or the other. It doesn’t matter to me.

Since I can’t easily just work and make the $349k, I would stop there and take it to invest it in something where I do have better odds and less risk – in me! I’m not there just for the show because it doesn’t amuse me (another one would perhaps, like Jeopardy where the gambles are much more interesting and involve the other parties and their psychologies and abilities as well).

I actually answered the poll before I read the posting (most things seem to want you to answer before reading on), so perhaps if I had two suitcases and one had $400 in it and the other $1M and they offered me $349k, I would take my chances. Then again, $400 wouldn’t pay for the trip even and the $349 (less taxes) is a sure thing at that point, right?

By: AJC

AJC — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:06:15 +0000

VD – aaah, but this depends on how you term: “2 to 1″ or “3:1″. You see, in gambling terms 35% is roughly one-third (33.33333%); so that means 3 pieces to the pie: 2 of which don’t have ham and pineapple TO 1 which does … 2 to 1

By: VD

VD — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:54:08 +0000

Obviously you didn’t major in math either. 9 of 26 or 35% is much more like 3 to 1 chance, not 2 to 1.

By: Scott

Scott — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:27:11 +0000

I would go for the million, no question. I look at this game just like the game of life, financially speaking. If I was on the show just to “be on the show”, for the experience, the exposure etc.. then I would take the safe money, bail out and call it a success since all I really wanted was to be on the show and the extra cash would be a bonus!

But just like in life, i’m not just here “for the show”. I only get one shot at the game of life and i’m here to go for the best. If I loose a chance at the 43k, the 134k or even the 349k, no biggy, I can make that myself in short time, so why not go for the “best” this show has to offer?

Just like in life, in health, in relationships, in money, etc.., why not go for the best?